One Big Warning to Each MLB Team Before Free Agency, Trade Season
The Major League Baseball offseason is something for teams to look forward to.
And also beware.
Because navigating the hot stove season can be perilous, we've issued a few words of warning for each of MLB's 30 teams. In essence, these cover how contenders and pretenders should or shouldn't show restraint on the free-agent and trade markets.
We'll go in alphabetical order by city.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Don't Expect a Robust Market for Paul Goldschmidt
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Despite their surprise re-signing of Eduardo Escobar, the Arizona Diamondbacks may be in sell mode this winter. According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, they might even deal Zack Greinke or Paul Goldschmidt.
Because he's only halfway through his $206.5 million contract, Greinke will obviously be tough to move. Though moving Goldschmidt should be easier in theory, it may not be in reality.
The 31-year-old is arguably baseball's best first baseman, and he's been on a team-friendly contract since 2014. So it will go in 2019, in which he's set to earn only $14.5 million.
Next year will also be the last of Goldschmidt's deal, however. The puts the Snakes in a position to market him strictly to win-now teams. Even among those, most may be hesitant to pay a king's ransom for a one-year solution at first base.
If so, the D-backs should know not to settle.
Atlanta Braves: Don't Spend It All at Once
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After winning the National League East in 2018, MLB.com's Mark Bowman reports the Atlanta Braves could add as much as $60 million to their 2019 payroll.
Yet some restraint should be in order.
The Braves do have real needs, such as a new right fielder and catching depth. But for the most part, they already have serviceable players across the rest of their roster. Many of them are young up-and-coming stars, and more await in the team's loaded farm system.
The Braves don't necessarily have to load up their roster with expensive veterans or sacrifice their best trade chips this winter. Instead, it could be to their advantage if they save financial and prospect capital for the 2019 trade deadline, when they'll know for certain what's standing between them and a World Series run.
Baltimore Orioles: Nobody Should Be Untouchable
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There's a lot of work to be done in Baltimore following the Orioles' dreadful 115-loss season, starting with a complete revamping of the club's leadership.
Eventually, attention will be turned to the team's roster. Whoever takes over baseball operations shouldn't need to be told this, but here goes anyway: Nobody on this team should be untouchable in trade talks.
Following trades of Manny Machado, Zach Britton, Kevin Gausman, Darren O'Day and Jonathan Schoop, there aren't many legit trade chips left on the Orioles. But they might get real prospects for Dylan Bundy or Mychal Givens. And if they can dump the contracts of Andrew Cashner or Alex Cobb, they should.
Unfortunately, further trades will make the Orioles even worse. But sometimes things must get worse before they can get better.
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Boston Red Sox: Don't Neglect the Bullpen
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There's been constant fretting about the Boston Red Sox bullpen all season. Yet it finished with a respectable 3.72 ERA, and it's been instrumental in getting the team close to yet another World Series title.
No matter what happens in the Fall Classic, however, Boston's focus must be on the bullpen during the offseason.
If nothing else, the Red Sox will have to fill shoes vacated by Craig Kimbrel and Joe Kelly, who are slated for free agency. It also wouldn't hurt to target upgrades for their setup corps. Only by doing these things will the Red Sox achieve anything even close to an ultra-deep bullpen fit for modern times.
Fortunately for the Red Sox, this is a good winter in which to load up on relievers. Which is to say that there won't be any excuse if president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski constructs yet another lackluster bullpen for 2019.
Chicago Cubs: Prioritize Pitching, Not Offense
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Chicago Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein said it himself: "Our offense broke somewhere along the lines."
Cubs hitters were nowhere near as dangerous in 2018 as they had been in 2016 or 2017. Things were especially ugly in the final month of the season, when they couldn't buy a run.
However, the Cubs need not panic about their offense. It wasn't the talent that was lacking. What was lacking was good health (particularly for Kris Bryant) and a consistent approach. Time and rest may fix the first problem. The second may be fixed by new hitting coach Anthony Iapoce.
Rather than breaking the bank for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado, the Cubs should see to the deficiencies in their pitching staff. At the least, this means improving their good-not-great bullpen. It might also mean re-upping with Cole Hamels or bringing in somebody else to add stability to their starting rotation.
Chicago White Sox: Don't Hang Up on Calls About Jose Abreu or Avisail Garcia
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The Chicago White Sox are closer to the end of their rebuild than they are to the start. Yet they must not be dead set against sacrificing a couple more trade chips.
Specifically, Jose Abreu and Avisail Garcia.
The White Sox haven't seemed keen on dealing Abreu, who's a valuable slugger and clubhouse presence. They also may not want to deal Garcia while his value is down following an injury-marred 2018.
But if teams come calling about either of them, the White Sox must not hang up. They control both only through 2019. During that time, the White Sox won't be contending. After it, they'd be wise to keep their spending options open.
If the White Sox can get something for Abreu or Garcia now, they should.
Cincinnati Reds: Don't Get Cocky
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The Cincinnati Reds went 40-37 between April 20 and July 14. Amid that stretch, team president Dick Williams suggested that the team would raise payroll in 2019.
The Reds have solid core pieces (Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez, Scooter Gennet, Raisel Iglesias) to build around, as well as some blue chips (Nick Senzel and Hunter Greene) on their way through the system. With the right spark, better things may be in store for 2019 and beyond.
However, the Reds must be realistic.
They still lost 95 games despite their respectable midseason showing. And within the NL Central, they're looking up at four teams that are much better equipped to contend than they are.
If the Reds do spend this winter, it should be in modest amounts. A smarter idea is to look ahead to after 2019, when they'll have more money to spend. And whether they like it or not, Gennett and Iglesias belong on the trading block in the meantime.
Cleveland Indians: Aim to Be Better Than Just the Best in the AL Central
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The Cleveland Indians have won 193 regular-season games over the past two seasons yet only two playoff games.
The reasons for their disappointment are many, but one that's especially apparent is how little their division is testing them. Cleveland has gone 99-53 against AL Central clubs since 2017. Against everyone else? A relatively modest 94-78. That speaks to how awful their division has become.
This demands that the Indians front office have a certain mindset for the coming offseason. It ought to take another AL Central title for granted and aim much higher with their goals for 2019 and beyond.
With many key players—including Michael Brantley, Andrew Miller, Cody Allen and Josh Donaldson—due for free agency, this will be easier said than done. But with enough creativity and aggression, Cleveland might enter 2019 as more than just the AL Central's best team.
Colorado Rockies: The Offense Must Not Go Un-Upgraded
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When the Colorado Rockies played at Coors Field in 2018, their bats mashed to the tune of an .852 OPS and 5.5 runs per game.
When they went on the road, those same bats turned into wet noodles and produced a .665 OPS and 4.1 runs per game. Factoring in park adjustments, they were barely better than the San Francisco Giants away from home.
Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon were the only above-average regulars in Colorado's lineup this season. Most others ranged from slightly below average (Carlos Gonzalez) to well below average (Ian Desmond).
If the Rockies are going to improve on their 91-win showing next season—which might be Arenado's last with the team—they must seek offensive upgrades this winter. With needs at catcher, first base, second base and in their outfield, they certainly have places to put them.
Detroit Tigers: Be Reasonable About Nicholas Castellanos
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According to Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press, Detroit Tigers general manager Al Avila has a plan for Nicholas Castellanos: "As we are playing it today, Nick will be our right fielder going into 2019."
The alternative is pushing the former third baseman even further down the defensive spectrum, such as first base or even designated hitter. Given his obvious limitations, either would be a better spot for him.
Or, the Tigers could simply cash in Castellanos' trade value.
They haven't seemed overly willing to do so in the past, perhaps because of how his glove compromises a bat that's produced an .831 OPS and 193 extra-base hits since 2016. But with Castellanos due for free agency after 2019, the clock is ticking.
After all, the Tigers do have a rebuild to finish.
Houston Astros: Don't Be Afraid to Let Dallas Keuchel Go
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The Houston Astros have some big decisions to make following their surprisingly swift exit from the American League Championship series.
The list starts with whether to re-sign 2015 Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel, who's poised to be one of the top free-agent starters on the open market. If they can bring him back at a reasonable price, they should.
If not, the Astros shouldn't fear letting the left-hander go.
The latter route would open a big hole in their rotation, but they might be able to fill it with more upside than Keuchel can provide at this point. Though he's still a good pitcher, injuries and declining velocity have robbed him of the dominance he displayed in 2015.
Since he's on the wrong side of 30, neither his health nor velocity is guaranteed to be in better shape going forward.
Kansas City Royals: Nobody Should Be off the Table
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The 104-loss season the Kansas City Royals just endured is only the first step in what looks like a lengthy rebuild.
It might, however, become less lengthy if they open themselves to trades.
Long-term assets such as Adalberto Mondesi (23), Brad Keller (23), Ryan O'Hearn (25) and Jorge Soler (26) can stay. But on the chopping block must be what name-brand veterans the team has left. Namely: Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield, Alex Gordon and Salvador Perez.
Duffy and Merrifield drew plenty of interest on the summer trade market, but neither went anywhere. Since Duffy is controlled through 2021 and Merrifield through 2022, the Royals may prefer to keep it that way.
But that would be foolish. Because both are pushing 30, and their primes may be over by the time the Royals are ready to contend again. In the meantime, they have a fallen farm system to raise up.
Los Angeles Angels: There May Not Be a Better Time to Cut Albert Pujols Loose
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The Los Angeles Angels can't get out from Albert Pujols' $240 million contract. It still has three years and $87 million left on it, and he's not going to forfeit that by retiring early.
This doesn't mean the Angels have to keep playing him, though.
Pujols is arguably the best first baseman in MLB history, but it's time to be blunt about his reality. His once-solid athleticism and durability are gone now, as is his talent for hitting. Heck, he doesn't even excel against left-handers anymore.
At this point, Pujols' can't avoid a sad ending to an amazing career. But it's in the Angels' interest to hasten the final curtain by cutting him loose. It would be addition by subtraction on the field. And with no major milestones within sight for Pujols, any criticism that comes their way would surely be light.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Don't Be Afraid to Let Clayton Kershaw Go
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Once the Los Angeles Dodgers are finished with the World Series, their attention will turn to Clayton Kershaw and his contract opt-out.
"I have not made a decision," Kershaw said during the National League Championship Series, per ESPN.com's Alden Gonzalez. "And to my understanding, you get 10 days after the World Series. So, should be a busy 10 days."
It may not be a given, but it's probable that Kershaw will opt out. He can surely do better on the open market than the $70.6 million he's owed through 2020 under his current deal.
If the three-time Cy Young Award winner does test the open market, the Dodgers need to set limits and stick to them. Because as much as it would hurt to lose him, committing huge money to an ace with fading stuff and diminishing dominance could ultimately hurt more.
Miami Marlins: Don't Be Stubborn with J.T. Realmuto's Asking Price
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During the season, it seemed like there was a new rumor every week about the Miami Marlins possibly trading J.T. Realmuto. But they never did, at least in part because of their astronomical asking price.
Now, Miami's preference may be to lock up the All-Star catcher. Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill told reporters that a contract extension is "something we definitely want to pursue."
The Marlins must not turn their back on the trade market, however.
There's plenty of value in Realmuto's talent, but he only has two years of club control left. If the Marlins can't extend him, they stand to lose a huge trade chip. The alternative is cashing it in to help a farm system that needs help.
Besides which, this is a good winter to field offers. Plenty of contenders (the Washington Nationals, Boston Red Sox and New York Mets, especially) need a catcher.
Milwaukee Brewers: Don't Be Too Satisfied with the Rotation
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For all the guff it received throughout the season, the Milwaukee Brewers starting rotation was actually a relative strength on the ride to Game 7 of the NLCS.
Better things should lie ahead even if the Brewers don't make any additions to their rotation this winter. Jimmy Nelson will finally return from shoulder surgery in 2019. Milwaukee will also have young guns Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta to call on.
Nonetheless, the rotation is the closest thing to a question mark the Brewers have going into the offseason. Though the depth is clearly there, it wouldn't hurt them to add a No. 1 starter to tie it all together and serve as their stopper in a pinch.
One suggestion: A trade for Sonny Gray, who would be reunited with former Vanderbilt pitching coach Derek Johnson, might do the trick.
Minnesota Twins: Don't Play It Too Safe
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The Minnesota Twins went for it in 2018, only to have pretty much everything fall flat en route to a 78-84 dud. It would thus be understandable if the Twins are leaning toward playing it safe this winter.
But now is no time for that.
It's not as if the Twins are a broken team that needs rebuilding. If Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano get back on track and Jose Berrios, Eddie Rosario and Kyle Gibson stay on track, they would have a solid core in 2019. As such, depth could be the only thing standing between them and a ticket to October.
The Twins have license to chase depth this winter. Not only because they have some money to play with, but also because Cleveland's AL Central superiority is threatened by its long list of free agents. These things equal an opening for Minnesota.
New York Mets: Don't Go into 2019 Without a New Catcher
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Assuming the New York Mets ever find somebody willing to be their general manager, finding a new catcher will be the top priority for the roster-building portion of their offseason.
According to Baseball Reference, Mets catchers produced only 0.8 wins above replacement in 2018. It didn't help that they produced a .652 OPS at the plate. For a team supposedly based on pitching, arguably just as bad was how poorly Kevin Plawecki and Devin Mesoraco framed pitches.
Luckily for the Mets, it will be a buyer's market for catching-needy teams. The free-agent market will have Yasmani Grandal, Wilson Ramos, Kurt Suzuki and Martin Maldonado. The trade market will have Realmuto.
Any one of them would be of great use to the Mets, so it'll be a massive disappointment if they come away with none of them.
New York Yankees: Spend, Don't Trade
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The New York Yankees were going to be in for a busy offseason no matter what they did in the playoffs. Following their early exit, now their offseason ought to be flat-out wild.
There should be one catch, however: They should defy the trade market and stick to the free-agent market.
The open market has plenty to offer this winter, after all. And now that they have finally reset their luxury tax penalties, the Yankees can afford whoever they want. Harper. Machado. Patrick Corbin. Since they clearly need to catch up to the Red Sox, they might even go for all three.
With so many free agents available and within reach, the Yankees don't need to pull from their farm system to solve needs on the trade market. They have the prospect depth to do so, but they'll be glad if they hold their best young players for either in-season promotions or trades.
Oakland Athletics: Now's No Time to Pinch Pennies
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The Oakland Athletics won 97 games in 2018, only to lose in unceremonious fashion to the Yankees in the AL Wild Card Game.
Now they're tasked with filling quite a few holes in their roster. Jed Lowrie and Jonathan Lucroy are free agents from their lineup. From their pitching staff, there's Trevor Cahill, Edwin Jackson, Brett Anderson and Jeurys Familia. All are in line for raises this winter, which isn't ideal for the A's.
But if ever there were a time for the A's to spend some money, it's now.
The core of their excellent team—Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Khris Davis, Stephen Piscotty, Marcus Semien, et al—is still in place despite their list of free agents. They also have only Piscotty's team-friendly contract on their books beyond 2019.
One more thing: With the Giants on the fritz, the A's can become the hot ticket in the Bay Area if they keep winning.
Philadelphia Phillies: Don't Blow It All on One or Two Players
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The Philadelphia Phillies took the first step out of their rebuild with an 80-win season in 2018. The next step involves getting their payroll from $95 million closer to the franchise's peak of $178 million. This could involve signing Harper or Machado. Or both.
But as tempted as the Phillies might be to sign the two best players on the market, that wouldn't solve all their problems.
Either Harper or Machado would significantly upgrade the team's mediocre offense, but the Phillies' list of needs extends well beyond that. Their defense also needs upgrades, and both their rotation and their bullpen require more depth.
Given the strength of the open market beyond Harper and Machado, the Phillies' best play is to sign one of them and spread the rest of their money around as needed.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Don't Get Complacent
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The Pittsburgh Pirates have only Jordy Mercer ticketed for free agency, and they can fill his spot at shortstop with Kevin Newman or Cole Tucker. Otherwise, their roster looks set.
Trouble is, what they have isn't good enough for what they must accomplish in 2019.
Though the Pirates hung in the NL Central race for much of 2018, the Brewers, Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals ultimately left them in the dust. The Pirates had a high floor. They just couldn't push their ceiling any higher.
That's not going to change unless they take a proactive approach to the offseason. Their offense, in particular, is sorely in need of power. They should acquire some in any way they can.
It's either get better, stay stuck in place or break it up and rebuild. They're in an awkward spot, but the Pirates are too good to go through Door No. 3.
San Diego Padres: Know Your Window
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The San Diego Padres are a sleeper to pull of a blockbuster trade this winter.
Coming off a 96-loss season, they may not fit the usual profile of a hot stove buyer. They do have the beginnings of a capable major league roster, however. What's missing is a dependable pitching staff, beginning with a No. 1 starter.
The Padres flirted with trading for one during the summer. It seems likely that they'll do so again this winter. They still have a loaded farm system, and it would be in general manager A.J. Preller's character to do something big to kickstart a return to contention.
Still, the Padres must know their window. They're almost certainly not going to win the NL West in 2019. Even 2020 will be tough. So if they do trade for a No. 1 starter, it must be somebody they control beyond just the next two seasons.
San Francisco Giants: Now's No Time to Get Cheap
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The San Francisco Giants should take their 187 losses since 2017 as a tell-tale sign that it's time to rebuild.
This is almost certainly not going to happen this winter, however. It's probably a fool's hope, but the Giants have enough name-brand players under contract for 2019 to have some hope for a turnaround.
If that's what's going to guide them this winter, the only thing anyone can ask of them is that they not place too much faith in what's already in house. Their outfield and starting pitching staff could each use a makeover. Extra bullpen depth wouldn't hurt either.
Pursuing these needs will be costly. Fortunately for the Giants, they slid in under the luxury tax in 2018. That's their ticket to do what they must on the offseason market.
Seattle Mariners: Don't Let Nelson Cruz Get Away
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The Seattle Mariners have much to see to this winter, but their top priority must be bringing Nelson Cruz back.
The four-year, $57 million contract that brought Cruz to Seattle in 2014 worked out as well as the Mariners could have hoped. He averaged a .908 OPS and 41 home runs per year and made three All-Star teams.
Cruz's production dipped slightly in 2018, however. Given that he's now 38 years old, the Mariners surely have some concern as to whether his production will dip more than slightly if they bring him back.
Yet they can't afford to lose his power from a lineup that's loaded with question marks. And given his age and apparent comfort in Seattle, there's probably a good chance that the Mariners can retain him at a reasonable price.
If they can do that and pursue other needs on the trade market, that's the route they should take.
St. Louis Cardinals: Don't Neglect the Bullpen
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The St. Louis Cardinals just missed qualifying for the postseason amid an 88-win season. The question now is how they can close the small gap between them and the National League elites.
They might start with a lineup that needs more offensive thump and/or more reliable defenders. After watching Carlos Martinez take a step back in 2018, they might also consider a top-of-the-rotation starter.
At the top of the list, however, must be bullpen help. And not just a small amount. A lot of it.
Though St. Louis' bullpen did stabilize in the latter half of 2018, at no point was it ever trustworthy. And looking ahead, it's hard to be enthused about any in-house options not named Jordan Hicks.
The Cardinals must take full advantage of the offseason market's deep collection of relievers, specifically ones that can help with their pen's strikeout deficiency.
Tampa Bay Rays: Don't Be Afraid to Spend
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Ordinarily, asking the Tampa Bay Rays to stop being cheap would be like asking Gene Kelly to stop singing in the rain.
But if ever there was a time to do so, it's now.
It's not as if their books are bogged down with commitments. They have only $8.2 million committed for 2019, and it all belongs to Kevin Kiermaier. Even by their standards, this should equal a decent measure of financial flexibility.
Beyond that, of course, is the reality that the Rays are trending up. They won 90 games in 2018 despite a constantly shape-shifting cast of a less-than-stellar players.
That makes it hard not to wonder what they might achieve if they upgrade with a few cost-effective veterans this winter. A bump from 90 wins to 95 wins and a playoff spot may indeed be possible.
Texas Rangers: Don't Hang Up on Any Trade Offers
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Two years after winning a second straight AL West title in 2016, the Texas Rangers sunk to the bottom of the division in 2018. From the looks of things, they won't be rising again anytime soon.
And yet, general manager Jon Daniels is oddly optimistic. He told reporters: "We believe we can take steps forward next year. I don't believe in tanking; that's not our mindset. ... We're going to look to get better internally and externally."
He can say this, but a few additions here and there aren't likely to lead to anything more than marginal improvement in 2019. The Rangers need more of a traditional rebuild, starting with trades of their best major league assets: Nomar Mazara, Joey Gallo, Jurickson Profar, Elvis Andrus and Rougned Odor.
Teams may be more than willing to offer good prices for these players on the winter trade market. If so, the Rangers need to hear them out.
Toronto Blue Jays: Listen to Offers on Everyone
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The Toronto Blue Jays went for a quick turnaround last offseason, but it didn't work. Little went right as they sunk to 89 losses.
Still, the future could look worse. The Blue Jays have already graduated top prospects Rowdy Tellez and Danny Jansen. Up next are Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the latter of whom looks like a generational talent worthy of his Hall of Fame bloodline.
How to make this future look even better? Easy: Be prepared to get worse in the short term.
Because each is more than a year away from free agency and none is coming off a spectacular season, the Blue Jays don't need to go out of their way to shop Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, Kevin Pillar or Randal Grichuk. But they must at least listen on them—and act on any trade offers that fill their plans for the future with additional young talent.
Washington Nationals: Don't Be Afraid to Let Bryce Harper Go
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Despite all the talk that Bryce Harper is destined to leave the Washington Nationals, the man himself would just as soon stick around.
"I think about other cities, but I love it here," Harper said in September.
If the enthusiasm is mutual, the Nationals are going to be one of the major suitors for Harper on the open market. It may cost upward of $300 million, but retaining an MVP who's only 26 would be a major coup.
However, the Nationals must not fear drawing a line in the sand in their negotiations with Harper.
For one thing, they must be wary of how his potential and his output haven't always lined up. For another, they must also beware going over the luxury tax again. For still another, they must realize that an outfield of Juan Soto, Victor Robles and Adam Eaton is a perfectly good fallback.
Lastly, there's this: Whatever money they have earmarked for Harper might be put to better use elsewhere.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus.
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