NFL Week 5 Picks: Game Props, Over-Under Lines and Odds Predictions
Through one month of the NFL regular season, there are a few certainties we've come to rely on.
The Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City Chiefs are the best teams in the league, and it wouldn't be surprising to see both teams undefeated going into their November 19 meeting.
As much as some people want them to go away, the New England Patriots are still the kings of the AFC East, and the three other teams in that division are still fighting for second place.
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We've also learned you can only trust backup quarterbacks so much. Call this the FitzMagic effect. Backups can be serviceable for a few weeks, but they won't be able to lead you to a full season of success.
In Week 5, the Patriots and Rams are once again overwhelming favorites, while the Chiefs face a test at home.
As for the backup signal callers, Ryan Fitzpatrick won't be on the field Sunday, but there's another backup, San Francisco's C.J. Beathard, who could produce a standout performance against the league's worst team.
Week 5 Schedule and Odds (via OddsShark)
Predictions in bold against the spread.
Thursday, October 4
Indianapolis at New England (-10) (Over/Under: 51.5)
Sunday, October 7
Atlanta at Pittsburgh (-3.5) (Over/Under: 57.5)
Baltimore (-3) at Cleveland (Over/Under: 47)
Denver at New York Jets (-1) (Over/Under: 42.5)
Green Bay (-1) at Detroit (Over/Under: 51)
Jacksonville at Kansas City (-3) (Over/Under: 49)
Miami at Cincinnati (-6.5) (Over/Under: 49.5)
New York Giants at Carolina (-7) (Over/Under: 44.5)
Tennessee (-3.5) at Buffalo (Over/Under: 39)
Oakland at Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5) (Over/Under: 53.5)
Arizona at San Francisco (-4.5) (Over/Under: 41)
Los Angeles Rams (-7) at Seattle (Over/Under: 50.5)
Minnesota at Philadelphia (-3) (Over/Under: 44.5)
Dallas at Houston (-3) (Over/Under: 45)
Monday, October 8
Washington at New Orleans (-6.5) (Over/Under: 42.5)
Best Game Props (via OddsChecker)
Total San Francisco 49ers Points
The San Francisco 49ers appear to be in a great position to earn a massive confidence boost with Beathard at the helm in Week 5.
Arizona comes to Levi's Stadium at 0-4 and the 49ers return home after a competitive two-point loss to the Los Angeles Chargers.
With Beathard under center, the 49ers scored 27 points, which continued an offensive trend set by Jimmy Garoppolo before he got hurt.
In their four losses, the Cardinals have conceded an average of 23.5 points, but if you bet the 49ers to score more than 24 points, it won't get you the best return.
Betting an over on San Francisco's total points of either 31, 35.5 or 37 gets you a nice payout, and there's reason to believe the 49ers can at least reach 31 points.
Arizona's defense gives up 377 total yards per game, so if that trend continues, the 49ers will have ample opportunities to reach the end zone.
Defensive Touchdown By Either Jacksonville or Kansas City
One of the most intriguing matchups in Week 5 pits Patrick Mahomes and the explosive Kansas City offense against the Jacksonville defense.
The Chiefs have a slight edge going into the game because it will be played at Arrowhead Stadium and Mahomes can't be stopped at the moment.
Jacksonville's defense is never afraid of a challenge, and they'll face one of their toughest tasks Sunday against Mahomes, Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and the rest of the Kansas City offense.
The odds for a defensive touchdown to occur sit at 13-8, while the line for no defensive score is 1-2.
Myles Jack has the lone defensive touchdown of the two defenses through four weeks, but don't count out Kansas City's defense to produce six points.
The pass rush led by Justin Houston should put Blake Bortles under duress on a few occasions, and if the Jaguars are backed up in their own territory, a fumble recovery for a touchdown is a real possibility.
Over/Under Predictions
Take A Risk And Go After The Atlanta-Pittsburgh Over
The standout over/under line for Week 5 comes from Atlanta's trip to Pittsburgh.
The game that features two of the top six passers in the NFL has an enormous over/under line of 57.5 points, but it's more than attainable given the way both teams have played through four weeks.
The 1-2-1 Steelers have combined to score at least 40 points with their opponents in each of their four games, and they hit 57 or more points in Weeks 2 and 3 against Kansas City and Tampa Bay.
Since their 18-12 loss in Week 1 to Philadelphia, the Falcons have been involved in shootouts that eclipsed 50 points.
With both teams desperate to reverse their poor starts, Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan should be slinging the ball around Heinz Field.
If you had the offensive weapons both quarterbacks possess, you'd do the same, as Roethlisberger has Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster at his disposal, while Julio Jones and rookie Calvin Ridley are Ryan's top targets.
Sprinkle in the fact that the Steelers and Falcons both rank in the bottom five in yards conceded and you have all the fixings for a shootout Sunday afternoon in Pittsburgh.
Take The Over On Low Tennessee-Buffalo Line
Tennessee and Buffalo sit on the opposite end of the over/under spectrum for Week 5, as the line is 39 points for their clash at New Era Field.
The line is understandably low because of Buffalo's inability to produce any type of consistent offense, even with rookie Josh Allen at the helm.
Buffalo was shutout in Week 4 by the Green Bay Packers, but it's been able to produce 20 points against the Los Angeles Chargers and Minnesota Vikings, which gives us hope the over can hit.
The Titans have scored over 20 points in three of their four games, and quarterback Marcus Mariota is coming off one of the best games of his career against the Philadelphia Eagles.
If Week 4 is any indication of where the Titans offense goes from here, Mariota and wide receivers Corey Davis and Taywan Taylor could tear apart opposing secondaries week after week.
The Bills concede 263 passing yards per game, so there's a good chance we'll see the Titans passing game feature in a starring role for the second straight game.
But in order for the over to hit, the Bills must contribute something that looks like a functional offense, and it's fine to have some concerns that they won't do so.
While Tennessee's defense has looked stingy at times, it ranks 24th in rushing yards per game and 12th in passing yards per game, which means there should be some openings for the Bills offense to score points.
The key for the over hitting is the success of LeSean McCoy, who must run the ball more than the five times he did in Week 4.
If McCoy can provide support for Buffalo's dreadful passing game, the Bills stand a chance to be competitive with the Titans.
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90
Statistics obtained from ESPN.com
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