Dallas Cowboys vs. Houston Texans Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

Neither the Dallas Cowboys or the Houston Texans are doing their financial backers much good so far this season, both going 1-3 against the spread. Who's the better bet for Sunday night's Lone Star State showdown at NRG Stadium?

NFL point spread: The Texans opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 45.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 26.2-15.0 Texans (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Cowboys can cover the spread

The Cowboys just evened their record on the season at 2-2 with a 26-24 victory over Detroit last week. Dallas led the Lions at the half 13-10 and 20-10 through three quarters, fell down 24-23 with just over two minutes to go but immediately drove 55 yards to a game-winning field goal at the buzzer.

On the day the Cowboys produced a season-high 414 yards of offense, as running back Ezekiel Elliott ran for 152 and caught four balls for 88 more, including 34 on the big play that set up the game-winning kick. So that's two 100-yard rushing performances in a row for Elliott.

On the season Dallas is only averaging 312 yards per game on offense but it's holding opponents to just 306 YPG defensively. Also, the Cowboys are out-rushing foes by a per-game margin of 145-98, and that's often a good way to win a game and cover a spread.

Why the Texans can cover the spread

The Texans just picked up their first victory of the season, outlasting the Colts in Indianapolis in overtime last week 37-34. Houston spotted the Colts the first seven points of the game, then used a 28-3 run to take what looked like a comfortable lead. The Texans then allowed Indianapolis to rally and force OT, but eventually won it with a big DeShaun Watson completion to DeAndre Hopkins that set up a game-winning field goal at the overtime buzzer.

On the day Houston produced 466 yards of offense, 119 on the ground and 347 through the air. The Texans also won the turnover battle 2-1, producing a plus-14 point differential, and held a 40/30 advantage in time of possession.

Houston opened this season with a 27-20 loss at New England, then fell at Tennessee 20-17 despite out-gaining the Titans 437-284, then lost to the Giants 27-22 despite out-gaining them 427-379.

Smart betting pick

Dallas owns the better running game and the better defense in this matchup, and it's getting a field goal on the betting line. Smart money here rides with the Cowboys.

NFL betting trends

The total has gone under in the Cowboys' last four games vs the Texans.

The Texans are 4-22-1 ATS in their last 27 games at night.

The Cowboys are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games on the road in October.

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.