1 Make-or-Break Offseason Decision Each MLB Team Faces
The MLB offseason has already begun for two-thirds of the league, so it's time to look ahead at some of the biggest storylines set to unfold this winter.
There will be plenty to come about potential free-agent landing spots or speculation on blockbuster deals.
For this article, we're going to take a more broad view by honing in on the one critical decision each team is facing this offseason.
Whether it's exploring an extension with a young star, deciding what to do with a key free agent or shopping a marquee player in an effort to maximize his value, these decisions come in all shapes and sizes.
Every front office is facing at least one that could significantly change the complexion of the team.
AL Central
1 of 6
Chicago White Sox: A potential Jose Abreu trade or extension
Despite trading off veterans like Chris Sale, Jose Quintana and Adam Eaton in the midst of a rebuild, the White Sox have held on to All-Star first baseman Jose Abreu.
A big reason why is his value in the locker room as a leader and mentor for the team's young core.
Now, as he gets set to enter his final year of team control, the front office will need to give some serious thought to where he fits into the long-term plans.
The 31-year-old had a down season by his standards, posting a 118 OPS+ with 22 home runs and 78 RBI, but part of that can be attributed to a groin injury. A bounce-back season could increase his value as a rental option next summer, or the team could explore an extension if it values his clubhouse presence that highly.
Cleveland Indians: Restocking the bullpen
The Indians bullpen has been a surprising weakness this season, and with both Cody Allen and Andrew Miller headed for free agency, shoring up the relief corps will be a top priority.
Trading for Brad Hand and Adam Cimber prior to the July 31 non-waiver deadline helps, as Hand is capable of closing and the team won't necessarily need to break the bank trying to sign a proven ninth-inning guy.
Still, strong relief pitching has been a big part of the team's recent run of success, and Cleveland will need to take steps to rebuild the bullpen.
Veteran lefty Oliver Perez (51 G, 15 HLD, 1.39 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 12.0 K/9) will also be a free agent.
Detroit Tigers: A potential Nicholas Castellanos trade
It's unlikely the Tigers will consider selling low on Michael Fulmer after he dealt with injuries and struggled to a 4.69 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 132.1 innings.
That leaves outfielder Nicholas Castellanos as their most obvious trade chips.
The move from third base to right field yielded similarly awful defensive metrics (-19 DRS, -12.3 UZR/150), but his offensive game continues to improve.
The 26-year-old hit .298/.354/.500 for a career-high 130 OPS+, tallying 46 doubles, 23 home runs and 89 RBI along the way.
A free agent after the 2019 season, Castellanos is a prime candidate to be dealt as the Tigers continue to rebuild. Will they find an offer to their liking this winter or wait until July?
Kansas City Royals: A potential Whit Merrifield trade
Whit Merrifield is a fan favorite in Kansas City and with good reason.
In the midst of an otherwise dreadful 104-loss season, he was a clear bright spot, hitting .304/.367/.438 and leading the majors in both hits (192) and steals (45) on his way to 5.5 WAR.
Merrifield is also 29 years old, and by the time the Royals are ready to contend again, his prime may have come and gone.
With team control through the 2022 season and the ability to play all three outfield spots on top of his usual work at second base, he's a valuable trade chip for a franchise that needs all the young, controllable talent it can get its hands on.
Someone just might make the Royals an offer they can't refuse.
Minnesota Twins: Ervin Santana's team option
Ervin Santana finished seventh in AL Cy Young voting in 2017, going 16-8 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over 211.1 innings while tossing five complete games and three shutouts to lead the Twins to a surprise postseason appearance.
This season, he managed just five starts, as issues with his right middle finger kept him sidelined for much of the year.
That leaves the Twins with an interesting decision regarding his $14 million team option for 2019, which carries a $1 million buyout.
Santana was not happy with the front office's resolution to sell this summer, even though it was the obvious move, and that turmoil could lead to a parting of ways. Then again, if he can even come close to returning to his 2017 form, that $14 million salary would be a steal.
AL East
2 of 6
Baltimore Orioles: A potential Dylan Bundy trade
Though he failed to build on a promising 2017 season, Dylan Bundy still looks like the most appealing trade chip remaining on a gutted Orioles roster.
The No. 4 overall pick in 2011 earned the Opening Day start for the O's after going 13-9 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over 169.2 innings in 2017.
However, his ERA (5.45) and WHIP (1.41) were both decidedly worse this year, and he surrendered an MLB-high 41 home runs in 171.2 innings.
Still, with tantalizing stuff and team control through 2021, more than a few teams would likely be willing to take a chance. Baltimore will have to decide if it wants to potentially sell low to aid the rebuild or wait in hopes he adds some value.
Boston Red Sox: Who gets the first extension?
The Red Sox have some marquee names rapidly approaching free agency.
Chris Sale and Xander Bogaerts will both hit the open market following the 2019 season, and AL MVP front-runner Mookie Betts will follow at the conclusion of the 2020 campaign.
Ideally, the front office would find a way to retain all three stars, but that might not be possible considering the significant money already being spent on David Price ($127 remaining) and J.D. Martinez ($86.2 million).
So who will be the team's top priority? And who is most likely to sign on the dotted line?
New York Yankees: Reshaping the starting rotation
Luis Severino and Masahiro Tanaka will be back in the fold next season.
The other three rotation spots are up for grabs.
J.A. Happ, CC Sabathia and Lance Lynn are all headed for free agency, while Sonny Gray might wind up non-tendered. Prospects Justus Sheffield, Chance Adams and Jonathan Loaisiga all got their feet wet this season, but counting on any of them to fill a spot would be a major risk.
With that in mind, deciding how to address the rotation will be the make-or-break decision of the offseason in the Bronx.
Patrick Corbin and Dallas Keuchel both look like good fits in free agency, while a reunion with Happ or Sabathia could also be in play.
Tampa Bay Rays: Continue forward with the "opener" approach?
The Rays got a Cy Young-caliber performance from Blake Snell, and towering right-hander Tyler Glasnow showed some intriguing upside filling a rotation spot after the Rays acquired him from the Pirates in the Chris Archer trade.
However, the rest of the Tampa Bay rotation was filled with "openers" for much of the year, with starts pieced together by a number of multi-inning relievers.
It was a bold strategy born partially out of necessity, but 90 wins and a 3.74 team ERA (sixth in MLB) is reason enough to think the Rays may employ that philosophy going forward.
The return of Brent Honeywell could add another traditional starter to the mix, but don't expect a full return to a conventional rotation. The type of pitchers the front office targets in free agency will be telling of how the organization plans to approach things in 2019.
Toronto Blue Jays: All-in on a youth movement?
The Blue Jays have one of the best farm systems in baseball—ranked No. 3 in our final update—and much of their top-tier talent is on the cusp of reaching the majors.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the headliner, and after demolishing Double-A and Triple-A pitching (.381/.437/.636), he has little left to prove in the minors.
Catcher Danny Jansen got his first taste of the majors and looks to be well-positioned to take over as the everyday backstop, while infielders Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio and Kevin Smith could all be ready for the majors at some point next season as well.
So the big question for the Blue Jays will be whether they pursue a handful of stopgap options to give those young players more time in the minors, or if they go all-in on a youth movement.
AL West
3 of 6
Houston Astros: The free agency of Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton
While Cy Young candidates Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole will both be back next season, the Astros stand to lose two other key members of the rotation in Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton.
With their window to contend wide-open and money to spend, what they do to address the starting rotation will be one of the more compelling storylines of the offseason.
Assuming Lance McCullers Jr. is also locked into a spot on the staff next year, they could turn things over to youngsters Josh James and Framber Valdez to round out the staff until top prospect Forrest Whitley is ready.
They could also conceivably make a run at Clayton Kershaw if he opts out and tests the market. Or they could just bring back Keuchel and Morton and stick with the status quo. We shall see.
Los Angeles Angels: Who will be the next manager?
Before the Angels decide how to best bolster the roster around superstar Mike Trout, they need to decide on a new manager.
Mike Scioscia announced earlier this week that he was stepping down from the post he's held for the past 19 seasons, and Angels general manager Billy Eppler already has an idea of what he's looking for in the team's next manager.
"What we're looking for in that next manager is connectivity with the players," Eppler told reporters. "We're looking for somebody who can think with a probability-based mindset. We're going to look for someone who is eager to grow and evolve. Someone that can develop a culture that will put the welfare of the team above any singular person. Those are the criteria that we're going to look for in our next manager."
Former Oakland third baseman and current Angels special assistant Eric Chavez is the early favorite, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today.
Oakland Athletics: Next year's starting rotation
The A's squeezed all they could out of Edwin Jackson, Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson this season, but counting on anyone from that group to be part of the 2019 rotation is risky.
Sean Manaea is expected to miss the bulk of 2019 recovering from shoulder surgery, and Kendall Graveman will be recovering from Tommy John surgery.
So at this point, deadline pickup Mike Fiers and right-hander Daniel Mengden look like the only safe bets to fill a rotation spot next year.
Frankie Montas and Chris Bassitt are notable in-house options, while prospects A.J. Puk and Jesus Luzardo could also be ready to make an impact. But getting at least a few outside additions seems like a must.
Seattle Mariners: The free agency of Nelson Cruz
To say that Nelson Cruz made good on the four-year, $57 million deal he recently wrapped up with the Mariners would be a massive understatement.
Over the life of that contract, Cruz posted a 148 OPS+ while averaging 41 home runs, 104 RBI and 4.2 WAR.
Both player and team have expressed interest in a reunion, according to Bob Dutton of KLAY 1180 AM, but it's up for debate whether bringing him back would be a wise move.
At this point in his career, shifting 35-year-old Robinson Cano into the everyday designated hitter role might be the best way to maximize the five years and $120 million left on his contract. Bringing back Cruz would effectively block such a move.
It also stands to reason that pitching should be the team's top priority, so letting Cruz walk and reallocating that money toward the pitching staff might be the best course of action.
Texas Rangers: Who will be traded?
It's hard to envision a scenario in which the Rangers are contenders in 2019.
That makes them obvious candidates to sell off some veteran pieces in the name of rebuilding this offseason, but who will be dangled?
A bounce-back season from Rougned Odor coupled with his team-friendly contract could make him a player of interest. Young sluggers Nomar Mazara and Joey Gallo both have value if the front office is really looking to blow things up. Controllable reliever Jose Leclerc is probably the most likely player to be moved.
Just how aggressively they decide to sell will give an idea of what the next several years are going to look like in Arlington.
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NL East
4 of 6
Atlanta Braves: The future at third base
A breakout season from third baseman Johan Camargo (116 OPS+, 19 HR, 76 RBI, 3.7 WAR) has left the Braves with an enviable problem.
By all accounts, top prospect Austin Riley is ready for his shot at the everyday third base job after hitting .294/.360/.522 with 30 doubles, 19 home runs and 70 RBI in the upper levels of the minors.
So who is the guy next year?
There are no glaring red flags in Camargo's peripherals to suggest he's a one-year wonder.
If the front office believes he's can sustain that performance, Riley could become an extremely valuable trade chip. Packaging him along with one of the team's top-tier pitching prospects would be a good start toward swinging a deal for an established, controllable starter.
Otherwise, Riley could be viewed as an option to fill the everyday right field job with Nick Markakis reaching free agency.
Miami Marlins: A potential J.T. Realmuto trade or extension
Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald summed up the situation perfectly:
"The Marlins are expected to offer Realmuto a contract extension after the season. If he accepts, Realmuto could be around for years to come, the cornerstone around which the organization rebuilds the franchise. If he doesn't, it's more likely than not he'll be traded while his value is greatest."
There's little doubt his value has reached new heights after he hit .277/.340/.484 with 30 doubles, 21 home runs and 74 RBI to lead all catchers with 4.3 WAR.
After receiving some uninspiring returns for the likes of Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna and Dee Gordon last offseason, the front office has to get this one right.
New York Mets: Buy, sell or both?
After a disappointing 77-85 season—a second straight losing season after back-to-back playoff appearances—the Mets are at a crossroads.
They could sell high on Jacob deGrom and Zack Wheeler to help restock the farm system and maybe even field offers for Noah Syndergaard, Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo if they really want to blow things up.
Or they could look at those five guys as a strong core to build around for 2019 and continue trying to field a contender.
With the Braves and Phillies gearing up to be perennial contenders, this is a huge offseason for the Mets.
Philadelphia Phillies: The pursuit of Manny Machado and Bryce Harper
Most expect the Phillies to make a serious run at signing Manny Machado or Bryce Harper.
Some are optimistic enough to think they might even sign both.
It's potentially a $400 million dilemma for a team that made some questionable decisions last offseason in terms of the allocation of funds (looking at you, Carlos Santana), and it's one the front office can't afford to get wrong.
Signing Machado would create a ripple effect that could lead to Maikel Franco being traded, while signing Harper would put even more pressure on the team to find a way to move Rhys Hoskins back to first base with Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams and Roman Quinn also in the outfield mix.
Then there's the question of whether the team might be better served spending that money on pitching help for ace Aaron Nola, but that's a whole different can of worms.
Either way, all eyes will be on GM Matt Klentak this offseason.
Washington Nationals: A potential Bryce Harper reunion
Bryce Harper (via Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post): "I think about other cities, but I love it here. Am I in the plans, you know? I don't know. It's hard to think about, because it's all you know, and then you think about it, it's like, ‘Well, it could all be over in a second.' It's kind of crazy."
GM Mike Rizzo, in response to that quote (via Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post): "Of course he's in our plans. He's a guy we would love to have. He's a part of our family. He's a big part of this roster performance-wise. Like I've always said, with these type of deals, you're not betting on the baseball player; you're betting on the person. He's a person we'd like to have with us."
Harper's decision on where to play next year—and for the foreseeable future—is very clearly the make-or-break decision of the offseason for the Nats. It sounds like a reunion is still very much on the table.
NL Central
5 of 6
Chicago Cubs: Cole Hamels' team option
When the Cubs acquired Cole Hamels on July 27, his $20 million option for next season was an afterthought.
In fact, it was an afterthought to the point that the Rangers agreed to pay the $6 million buyout of that option as part of the trade. The 34-year-old had struggled to a 4.72 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 20 starts prior to the trade, and the Cubs were just hoping he could eat some innings for a banged-up rotation.
He did that and then some, going 4-3 with a 2.36 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 74 strikeouts in 76.1 innings over 12 starts while trimming his home run rate from 1.8 to 0.7 HR/9.
Suddenly, that $20 million option doesn't sound so ridiculous.
Cincinnati Reds: A potential Scooter Gennett trade or extension
When the Reds claimed Scooter Gennett off waivers from the Milwaukee Brewers days before the start of the 2017 season, they probably didn't expect to be mulling over a potential long-term deal at any point.
However, Gennett broke out in a big way last season, and he backed those numbers up with an equally impressive 2018 campaign.
With free agency calling after the upcoming season, now is the time to either sell high or explore an extension with the 28-year-old.
Gennett sounded more than open to the idea of an extension while talking with Bill Ladson of MLB.com at the All-Star Game:
"I love this team. I'm willing to do anything I can to help the team win. It's not just out there playing second base. It's in my heart. It's something I really care about. That's why I'm honest and serious about me getting extended."
Milwaukee Brewers: Next year's starting rotation
The Brewers will enter the postseason with minor league free-agent signing Wade Miley and August waiver acquisition Gio Gonzalez as part of the four-man rotation.
Props to the front office for piecing things together, but the rotation will need to be addressed once again this offseason.
Chase Anderson and Jhoulys Chacin would seem to be the only locks for a spot. A healthy Jimmy Nelson would be given every chance to prove he's back to his pre-injury form.
Young right-handers Freddy Peralta and Brandon Woodruff both have the stuff to be quality big league starters, while Zach Davies, Brent Suter and Junior Guerra have all been above-average big league starters at various times over the past two seasons.
There are plenty of in-house options, but there's also a reason the team is left relying on a pair of scrapheap pickups in October, and that will all need to be taken into consideration this winter.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Next year's middle infield
With shortstop Jordy Mercer reaching free agency and second baseman Josh Harrison's $10.5 million option expected to be declined after a disappointing year, a changing of the guard is coming up the middle for the Pirates.
Adam Frazier and prospect Kevin Newman saw the bulk of the starts in September.
However, Kevin Kramer also saw some action at second base down the stretch, and fellow prospect Cole Tucker closed out the year at Double-A. Tucker, 22, is currently ranked as the No. 5 prospect in the system, according to MLB.com, ahead of Newman (6) and Kramer (7).
Sorting through those options, along with any veteran presence they might opt to bring in, will be the biggest decision of the offseason for a Pirates team with a chance to contend in 2019.
St. Louis Cardinals: Next year's starting rotation
The Cardinals could have quite a rotation battle on their hands next spring.
Carlos Martinez, Jack Flaherty and Miles Mikolas should all be locks for a spot on the starting staff.
That leaves two openings for some combination of Luke Weaver, Michael Wacha, John Gant, Austin Gomber, Dakota Hudson and Daniel Poncedeleon.
That's to say nothing of an eventual return to health from Alex Reyes or a potential reunion with free agent Adam Wainwright.
Unless they're planning to trot out a 10-man rotation, something has to give.
NL West
6 of 6
Arizona Diamondbacks: The free agency of A.J. Pollock and Patrick Corbin
How the Diamondbacks handle the free agency of A.J. Pollock and Patrick Corbin will be directly linked to both their expectations for 2019 and their optimism regarding a long-term deal with Paul Goldschmidt.
If the D-backs are going to come to terms on a new deal with Goldschmidt once he reaches free agency after the 2019 season, they probably can't afford to bring back Pollock and Corbin. One of them, maybe, but not both.
Then again, if they think they have a legitimate shot at contending for a title in 2019, bringing those two back or signing players of equal impact figures to be a big part of their immediate plans.
Either way, this offseason will be telling.
Colorado Rockies: A potential Nolan Arenado extension
With expensive deals already committed to Charlie Blackmon and Ian Desmond, and after last season's spending spree on the bullpen trio of Wade Davis, Jake McGee and Bryan Shaw, the Rockies might have a hard time retaining Nolan Arenado.
They're certainly going to try, though.
One year removed from free agency, Arenado is undoubtedly one of the game's elite players, posting a 129 OPS+ while averaging 40 doubles, 40 home runs, 126 RBI and 6.3 WAR over the past four seasons.
He openly expressed his distaste for losing at midseason, so might the Rockies' strong second-half push and promising young pitching staff convince him to stay?
Los Angeles Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw's opt-out clause
Most expect Clayton Kershaw to opt out of the final two years and roughly $70 million of his current contract.
The question is whether it's just a procedural move to secure a longer deal from the Dodgers or if he'll actually test the free-agent market in earnest.
The Dodgers have a budding ace on their hands in Walker Buehler and the financial resources to land another marquee starter if Kershaw does walk, so there is an asking price to which the Dodgers would say no.
Still, it's hard to imagine them letting their homegrown superstar get away.
His decision will have sweeping ramifications on the free-agent market as a whole, regardless of what he decides.
San Diego Padres: Another splashy free-agent signing?
The Padres dove into the deep end of the free-agent market last winter when they signed Eric Hosmer to an eight-year, $144 million deal.
Will they run with the big dogs again?
Even with the Hosmer signing, their payroll was still south of $100 million this season, so there's money to spend if the right target comes along.
It's hard to see them being legitimate players for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado, but someone like Dallas Keuchel or Patrick Corbin would be a welcome addition atop their young staff.
San Francisco Giants: Finally time to rebuild?
It seemed like everyone outside of the Giants front office could see the writing on the wall last offseason.
Trading for Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria only served to make an aging core even older, and now they're stuck with the Longoria deal alongside a number of other significant financial commitments.
It's hard to envision where this team would even start if it were to tear things down.
Madison Bumgarner is far and away the most valuable trade chip, but with free agency looming after 2019, he's not going to bring back a franchise-altering haul of prospects.
Joe Panik has value thanks to his cheap team control through 2020, but second basemen are notoriously difficult to trade given a lack of teams with a hole to fill at the position.
Then there are guys like Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford and Johnny Cueto, who all have value if they're healthy, but the Giants would have to absorb a significant portion of their remaining salaries to get anything of value in return.
It won't be easy, but the Giants can't afford to spend another season treading water.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.
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