Week 4 NFL Picks: Tips for Vegas Odds and Over/Under Score Predictions

Thursday Night Football showed why playing the Las Vegas odds can be so volatile and something akin to a roller coaster. 

The Los Angeles Rams entered favored by seven at home over the Minnesota Vikings yet almost coughed up a loss before winning by—get this—seven points. It was an offensive thriller but a not-so-fun experience for anybody who bet on that game. 

The rest of Week 4 poses many of the same problems. A few of the bigger lines that have held steady are risk plays and the close lines aren't much better. Odd cross-conference matchups and a divisional battle here or there mixed in with the first week of byes has created what looks like the toughest week yet.  

Week 4 NFL Odds

Buffalo at Green Bay (-9.5) | O/U 45.5

Cincinnati at Atlanta (-4) | O/U 51

Detroit at Dallas (-3) | O/U 43.5

Houston at Indianapolis (-1) | O/U 47

Miami at New England (-7) | O/U 47.5

N.Y. Jets at Jacksonville (-7.5) | O/U 38

Philadelphia (-4) at Tennessee | O/U 41.5

Tampa Bay at Chicago (-3) | O/U 46.5

Cleveland at Oakland (-3) | O/U 45

Seattle (-3) at Arizona | O/U 38.5

New Orleans (-3.5) at N.Y. Giants | O/U 50

San Francisco at L.A. Chargers (-10.5) | O/U 47.5

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-3) | O/U 50.5

Kansas City (-5) at Denver | O/U 56

Miami at New England (-7)

From afar, this didn't look like one of the top games of the season when the schedule was released. 

Yet here we are with the undefeated Miami Dolphins running the AFC East while the New England Patriots try to come to terms with the reality of 1-2 and an upward climb. 

The Dolphins are playing elite football right now, but something will have to give: 

Coaching has gone a long way for a Dolphins team that lost a talent like Jarvis Landry this past offseason but looks better than ever. Ryan Tannehill is once again far too underrated, this time completing 73 percent of his passes with seven touchdowns and two interceptions. Five of his targets have at least eight catches, and three of them have scored twice. 

That doesn't seem to bode well for a Patriots defense that has allowed 31 and 26 points over its last two games, both losses. 

But that familiarity hinted above has to come into play at some point. 

Tom Brady is still playing like Tom Brady, completing 64 percent of his passes with six touchdowns and two picks.

Keep in mind this rough start isn't too unusual for the Patriots, either. Remember a year ago when they started 2-2? Elite coaching has a way of adapting, and it doesn't get better than Bill Belichick, which has to be part of the conversation for those putting down hard-earned coin on these games. 

Were this in Miami, the outcome might be a different story. But with three games of film to watch, expect Patriots coaches to draw up the perfect plan in what amounts to a season-deciding game, because everyone has to know the list of teams that start 1-3 and make the playoffs isn't long. 

Prediction: Patriots 30, Dolphins 20

Seattle (-3) at Arizona 

A closer line like this can cause plenty of problems, too.  

So can a battle between two teams with all of one win among six attempts. 

The Seattle Seahawks' downfall was easy to see coming after the roster lost major pieces like Richard Sherman. As expected, Russell Wilson is playing quality football with seven touchdowns and three picks but under constant pressure (14 sacks), and his running game is averaging 3.3 yards per carry. 

Evening out the initial outlook is the fact everyone knew the Arizona Cardinals were going to be miserable this year. It's a full-blown rebuild for Arizona outside of a few pieces like Larry Fitzgerald, hence drafting Josh Rosen and throwing up the white flag by sitting him behind Sam Bradford. 

Granted, Bradford's 400 yards with two touchdowns and four interceptions while his offense has scored all of 20 points over three games have resulted in the coaches turning to Rosen.

One problem there—the coaching has been terrible: 

"

still can't believe the coach of the Arizona Cardinals put in Josh Rosen for his first ever NFL game action and told him to engineer an 80 yard game winning drive against Khalil Mack and the Bears pass rush. it's like he was hazing Rosen

— Chris B. Brown (@smartfootball) September 24, 2018"

First-year head coach Steve Wilks threw a rookie quarterback to the wolves in the fourth quarter of a game with a differential of less than a field goal against an elite defense boasting Khalil Mack to predictable results.

It's far from the worst error, as Cardinals coaches have managed to misuse former MVP-contending running back David Johnson, only giving him 34 carries over three games and just 15 targets through the air, mostly on checkdowns. 

That's a long way of saying both teams are bad teams, but only one is coached poorly. In a game like this, a player like Wilson decides the outcome. The Cardinals have talent if the coaching gets better, but it isn't going to happen overnight. 

Prediction: Seahawks 27, Cardinals 14

Kansas City (-5) at Denver 

One would think this line would be higher. 

Patrick Mahomes has a way of creating that perception, considering the fact he has taken the NFL by storm over his three-game debut. He has completed 66.7 percent of his passes with 13 touchdowns and no interceptions. 

The Chiefs are undefeated as a result, scoring wins in 38-28, 42-37 and 38-27 fashion. But the observant eye can see the problem there—the Kansas City defense is a mess. 

The context behind yards gained and allowed is downright stunning: 

Granted, Denver's only hope in this one is leaning on the idea it can exploit this defense. These Broncos are 2-1 but have picked up the wins over mediocre Seattle and Oakland teams, and new quarterback Case Keenum has fallen flat on his face without the coaches from a year ago who orchestrated his miracle season. He's sitting on just 743 yards with three touchdowns and five picks. 

Offensively, outside of a simple schedule, the Broncos' saving grace has been breakout rookie back Phillip Lindsay, who has tallied 198 yards while averaging six yards per carry.

But that right there should be enough for those betting on lines to step back. Denver is effective on the ground but can't make headway through the air despite weapons like Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas. As soon as Mahomes starts putting up numbers again, the only thing Denver can do is force it through the air and make life easier on the Chiefs. 

Until Mahomes crumbles, if at all considering it will depend on the NFL figuring him out and starting to counter him, his Chiefs are a safe roll in a situation like this. Jacksonville and New England in the coming weeks are tougher plays, so enjoy it while it lasts. 

Prediction: Chiefs 33, Broncos 17

Odds via OddsShark