Conor McGregor's Blueprint to Defeat Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 229

Would you believe me if I told you Conor McGregor is the betting underdog against Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 229?

It's true. According to betting site OddsShark, as of Wednesday, McGregor (21-3) was a slight but clear +140 underdog (bet $100 to win $140) against the undefeated Nurmagomedov (26-0) ahead of their October 6 battle for the Dagestani Russian's UFC lightweight title.

That won't surprise close observers, but more casual lookers-on can be forgiven for assuming McGregor had the paper edge. This is the former lightweight and featherweight champ we're talking about, and those are two belts he only lost because of inactivity in an MMA context. (Plenty of activity occurred during McGregor's lightweight reign, it was just that it was related to boxing Floyd Mayweather Jr.)

The celebrity factor is also undeniable. Winning the popularity contest of public opinion means a lot these days. He who speaks the loudest must be the better man, right?

Not so in this case. Nurmagomedov is a withering wrestler, a borderline sadistic ground-and-pound artist who doesn't let you up easily once you go down. 

It's all predicated on takedowns, which come fast and furious when they come from Nurmagomedov. His technique is unparalleled, praised by some of the greatest wrestlers of the game.

According to UFC stat keeper FightMetric, Nurmagomedov lands 5.44 takedowns per 15 minutes. He holds the single-fight UFC record with 21 successful takedowns. That is pretty good.

McGregor, meanwhile, is mainly a standup fighter. Of course, that's some of the most lethal stand-up in the world. One left hook is enough to topple a sugar maple. 

There's no immovable object here. These are two irresistible forces. It's a matter of who can oppose will and who can do just enough to avoid the full brunt of the other man's attack. Can McGregor do it? Sure he can. But he needs a blueprint. Here's an idea of what that might be.

In the broadest strokes, Nate Diaz (19-11) proved a hypothesis when he handed McGregor his first UFC loss in eight contests back in 2016. People understood the approach needed to best McGregor; it was just that no one had ever done it. It's based on the time-honored adage of deep water—tire McGregor out, make it ugly, drag him into the clinch, drag him to the ground, test his grappling skills to see if they work, submit him when they don't.

Although Diaz and Nurmagomedov are different fighters, it is safe to assume Nurmagomedov will employ his own version of that deep-water strategy.

Focusing on McGregor, then, what's his antidote? You can't begin that conversation with anything besides a sober reverence for the left hand. Whether as a straight or a hook, it's the primary reason he has a whopping 18 knockouts to his name. 

It's not the only reason, though. McGregor is a bona fide wizard of striking. No matter where he is in relation to his opponent, he always seems to cut the right angle from which to fire his shots. His excellent footwork and body control mean he's always in the right position for brilliant combinations, whether he's coming forward, backpedaling or seemingly sideways. Sometimes, those combinations incorporate kicks including leg kicks—something that might dampen the explosion on Nurmagomedov's relentless takedown shots.

Speaking of slowing that advance, McGregor also has impeccable timing and precision on his counter-striking. He doesn't always use it, but when opponents wade forward, McGregor is often poised to make them pay, and was that included in the spectacular rematch McGregor won over Diaz.

Leg kicks and counters led the way to McGregor's Diaz redemption, but so did another key ingredient: conditioning. The rematch went five rounds, with McGregor looking more methodical and efficient throughout. He seemed more wary of punching himself out, foregoing spamming the left-hand kill shot in favor of accuracy and volume.

FightMetric shows that in the first Diaz fight, McGregor landed 61 of 140 significant strikes for an accuracy percentage of 43 percent. Despite the fact that the second fight lasted more than three rounds longer, McGregor's accuracy was far higher, landing 164 of 286 significant strikes at a 57 percent clip. That's saving your strength and fighting for the long haul.

In a nutshell, that means racking up points and damage over the long term and letting the big opportunities come to you rather than chasing them.

But that still leaves the matter of the ground game.

McGregor's takedown defense is a respectable 73 percent, again per FightMetric, but unless he goes all Edson Barboza on Nurmagomedov's leg, it won't matter much. No, McGregor will inevitably spend time on his back.

Ground-wise he's no babe in the woods, and McGregor mouthpieces insist he can grapple with Nurmagomedov. 

But we shouldn't equivocate. McGregor is outclassed in this phase. It's a weak spot. He won't be able to stop every takedown attempt or likely even most takedown attempts. But he has shown flashes on the ground, including against D-1 wrestler Chad Mendes. What's more, he's logged extensive mat time with grappling prodigy Gunnar Nelson at SBG Ireland. 

McGregor is a bit of an unknown quantity on the ground when it comes to live action, but it's not out of the question to think he could hold his own in some sequences. His hope will be to get off the ground as soon as humanly possible and keep from getting there in the first place. Perhaps he can manipulate position or buy just enough time to keep damage surmountable.

So, bringing it all together, that means leg kicks and counters to stymie takedown attempts as or before they happen, use those tremendous angles to land shots and stay elusive, pile up damage and points over time and avoid overthrowing the left. That means using the lead hand more frequently as well.

But, oh, that left hand. To remove it from the equation is to rob the lion of its fangs. McGregor fans seem convinced that the champ can't take the left-hand shot. And you know the challenger will try. McGregor himself called Nurmagomedov a "glass-jawed bum" at the recent UFC 229 news conference, then predicted the champ would be "wrestling [his] knuckle out of your orbital bone."

We'll see. But if he wants to win, McGregor will have to stay patient on that big shot while playing the longer game based on volume striking dampening takedown attempts. And, for goodness sake, if he knows what's good for him, he'll keep ground time to an absolute minimum. Easier said than done.