Los Angeles Chargers vs. Buffalo Bills Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

Following an embarrassing performance to open this season the Buffalo Bills seek solace at home, where they finished 6-2 straight up and 5-2-1 against the spread last season.

The Los Angeles Chargers, meanwhile, are just 6-18 SU away from home over the last three seasons, but 14-9-1 ATS. Which way should the smart money fall for Sunday afternoon's meeting between these two AFL originals in Buffalo?

NFL point spread: The Chargers opened as 7.5-point favorites; the total was 44.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 24.5-17.2 Chargers (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Chargers can cover the spread

The Chargers, preseason favorites to win the AFC West, got off to their typical slow start last week, falling at home to Kansas City 38-28. Los Angeles gave up a 91-yard punt return for a touchdown two minutes into the game and later trailed 31-12. The Chargers then pulled to within 31-20 and were about to get the ball back but fumbled it away at their own two-yard line, setting Kansas City up for an easy score and a lead Los Angeles couldn't overcome.

On the day the Chargers actually out-gained the Chiefs 541-362, made 33 first downs to 19 for Kansas City and held a time of possession advantage of 34/26. But they gave up that punt return for a score, allowed two long Chiefs touchdowns from scrimmage, threw an interception from the KC 26-yard line, coughed up that punt and missed a field goal.

Over its last 18 games Los Angeles is 0-4 against the Chiefs, 9-5 against everybody else.

Why the Bills can cover the spread

The Bills are hoping for a little better performance this week after falling at Baltimore last week 47-3. And that effort isn't worth remembering. Buffalo trailed 14-0 after one quarter, 26-0 at the half and 40-0 before finally hitting the board with a sympathy field goal late in the third quarter.

The Bills must now move on from that disaster, and they'll try to do it with rookie Josh Allen starting at quarterback this week. During the exhibition season Allen hit on 24 of 44 throws for 210 yards and two touchdowns, without an interception. He then finished six-for-15 passing in mop-up duty last week for 74 yards.

Perhaps Allen and Buffalo can take heart in the fact that the only rookie to make his first NFL start last week, the Jets' Sam Darnold, won his game against Detroit 48-17.

Smart betting pick

The Chargers bombed the Bills last year in Los Angeles 54-24, taking advantage of an inexperienced Buffalo quarterback. Los Angeles probably won't snare five interceptions this week or win by 30, but it does own the better quarterback, the better running game and the better defense. Smart money plays the Chargers.

NFL betting trends

The Chargers are 17-5 SU in their last 22 games against the Bills.

The total has gone UNDER in three of the Chargers' last four games against the Bills.

The Bills are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as underdog.

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.