NFL Week 2 Betting Guide: Odds, Props and Picks

Two massive upsets highlighted Week 1 of the NFL betting season, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-point underdogs, +405 on the moneyline) and New York Jets (seven-point underdogs, +285 on the moneyline) beat the New Orleans Saints and Detroit Lions, respectively.

We won't see underdogs with touchdown spreads or more winning outright every week, but the first 16 games of 2018 showed that preseason expectations for some teams may strongly differ from reality.

A few intriguing questions linger into Week 2, which kicked off with the Cincinnati Bengals' 34-23 victory over the Baltimore Ravens.

What happened to the Saints pass defense? Are the Lions really one of the NFL's worst teams? Can the Chicago Bears get off the mat after blowing a 20-point second-half lead to the Green Bay Packers?

We'll make educated guesses on some of those questions in the midst of this week's betting guide, which features picks on the moneyline and spread, value bets, the lock of the week and more.

Moneyline Picks and Picks Against the Spread

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Ravens at Bengals: Bengals (-105) and (+1)

Panthers at Falcons: Falcons (-260) and Panthers (+6)

Browns at Saints: Saints (-470) and Browns (+9.5)

Texans at Titans: Texans (-158) and (-3)

Colts at Redskins: Redskins (-250) and Colts (+5.5)

Chiefs at Steelers: Steelers (-225) and (-4.5)

Chargers at Bills: Chargers (-7.5) and (-330)

Dolphins at Jets: Jets (-3) and (-143)

Vikings at Packers: Packers (-1.5) and (-120)

Eagles at Buccaneers: Eagles (-173) and (-3)

Cardinals at Rams: Rams (-13) and (-1000)

Lions at 49ers: 49ers (-6) and (-265)

Patriots at Jaguars: Jaguars (EVEN) and (-105)

Raiders at Broncos: Broncos (-6.5) and (-270)

Giants at Cowboys: Giants (+3) and (+145)

Seahawks at Bears: Bears (-3) and (-176) 

ML Season Record: 9-7-1

ATS Season Record: 8-8-1

Stay-Away Games

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New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars

This is the only Week 2 game on the board marked as a pick'em, and it's easy to see why. An unstoppable force (the New England Patriots offense) is meeting an unmovable object (the Jacksonville Jaguars defense), and it's anyone's guess as to who wins the battle of those titans.

The Pats ranked first in offensive efficiency last year, per Football Outsiders, while the Jags were No. 1 in defensive efficiency. When they met in last year's AFC Championship Game, the Pats won a 24-20 nail-biter after overcoming a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit.

The vast majority of the key pieces from both sides are back in 2018. This time, the game is in Jacksonville, where the Jags won six straight games to end last year. That could give the Jags a slight edge, but it's also hard to bet against Pats quarterback Tom Brady, who has a 197-57 lifetime regular-season record.

This matchup is the definition of a coin flip. It's best to just enjoy watching it without any skin in the game.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

This game hinges on Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers' availability. Per Packers head coach Mike McCarthy, Rodgers, who sprained his knee Sunday against the Chicago Bears and missed the end of the first half, worked with the "rehab group" Thursday and did not practice. The team listed Rodgers as questionable.

McCarthy said Wednesday that he doesn't think Rodgers needs practice this week to play, but it'll be hard to gauge the state of the 14-year veteran's knee until he's in action Sunday (if that even occurs).

Granted, Rodgers dominated the Bears in the second half despite his sprained knee, throwing three touchdown passes and leading the Packers to a 24-23 win after they were down 20-0. However, the Minnesota Vikings defense is tougher and allowed the fewest points last season.

If Rodgers' mobility is hindered, then the edge goes to the Vikings. But if Rodgers makes great strides leading up to the game, then the pendulum swings in his direction.

Either way, this is not an ideal game for bettors given Rodgers' murky status.

Prop Bets You Can Take to the Bank

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Total Arizona Cardinals Quarters Won (0): +200

The Arizona Cardinals have serious issues to address.

Against the Washington Redskins last Sunday, the Cards couldn't manage half of the Skins' yardage total (429 to 213). They scored six points. Only two wide receivers caught the ball, and one of them (Christian Kirk) had one catch for four yards. The other (Larry Fitzgerald) combined with running back David Johnson to obtain 143 of the team's 213 yards.

On defense, the Cards had significant trouble defending running backs (Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson combined for 294 yards from scrimmage, or 81 more than Arizona as a team) and tight end Jordan Reed (four catches, 48 yards, one score).

Now they're tasked with a road game against the Los Angeles Rams, who may end the season with top-five rankings on offense and defense. This likely won't end well for Arizona.

Total Touchdowns in Kansas City Chiefs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers) Game (Over 5.5): -140

Here's a quick trivia question: Name the team that gained the most yards from scrimmage in Week 1.

Remarkably, it's not the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who posted 48 points. Nor is it the New York Jets (48) or New Orleans Saints (40).

Rather, it's the Los Angeles Chargers, who somehow gained 541 yards against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. 

K.C. won 38-28 behind the Patrick Mahomes-Tyreek Hill connection, which may take the league by storm. But the Chiefs can only go so far with a defense that gives up that many yards. One has to wonder if that Week 1 game flow will be commonplace going forward.

The Chiefs don't get a break Sunday as they face the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road. On paper, it doesn't seem likely that K.C. will be able to contain wideouts Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster as well as running back James Conner. The Steelers could beat this prop alone.

Spreads to Bet

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New York Giants (+3) over Dallas Cowboys

Football analyst Warren Sharp tweeted some eye-opening stats regarding the Dallas Cowboys' Week 1 offensive performance against the Carolina Panthers. Per Sharp, Dallas, who was shut out for 51 minutes and scored just eight on the day, had an average of 12 yards to go on third down. The Cowboys also hit the red zone one time.

Sharp points out numerous reasons for the Cowboys' offensive problems, but the most glaring one is running back Ezekiel Elliott's near absence in the passing game (he had one catch for one yard through three quarters and finished with three receptions for 17 yards).

Using Elliott in the passing game would help an aerial attack that lost its top wideout (Dez Bryant) and tight end (Jason Witten), but that hasn't happened.

Until it does, the Dallas offense may prove easier to defend, which is good news for the New York Giants, who have an improved defense this year thanks to a few contributing rookies (end B.J. Hill and linebacker Lorenzo Carter) among some veteran additions (linebackers Alec Ogletree and Kareem Martin).

In a low-scoring game, take the Giants plus the points.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense undoubtedly produced the best performance of Week 1, but it has a difficult task against the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles, who held the Atlanta Falcons to 12 points despite Julio Jones' monster night.

Philadelphia's solid defensive output came without suspended linebacker Nigel Bradham, who led the team in tackles with 88 last year. He'll be back Sunday to join a well-rounded defense that finished fifth in defensive efficiency last year (per Football Outsiders) and added defensive end Michael Bennett and tackle Haloti Ngata in the offseason.

After struggling for 18 points in Week 1, the Eagles offense should be improved against a Tampa team that allowed 475 yards to New Orleans. Furthermore, the Eagles' No. 1 weapon in the passing game (tight end Zach Ertz) caught just half of his 10 targets on Sunday, which included two drops.

That's likely an anomaly, as he's coming off a year in which he caught over two-thirds of passes thrown his way. Look for him and the Eagles to win big.

Line Movement

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Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints (-7.5 NO to -9.5 NO and 47.5 O/U to 49.5 O/U)

Despite the Cleveland Browns hanging tough with the Pittsburgh Steelers en route to a 21-all tie, and despite the New Orleans Saints pass defense allowing 417 yards and four touchdowns to Tampa Bay, this line moved in favor of the Saints by 1.5 points.

There could be a few reasons for this.

First, Evan Silva of Rotoworld noted the Browns' offensive line struggles Sunday, specifically those of left tackle Desmond Harrison. Cleveland allowed seven sacks of quarterback Tyrod Taylor, and Harrison committed four penalties and allowed the most hurries in the league in Week 1. He's back as the team's starter Sunday.

Second, the Saints have arguably the NFL's best and most efficient skill-position trio in quarterback Drew Brees, running back Alvin Kamara and wide receiver Michael Thomas, who all finished top five in defense-adjusted yards above replacement last year, per Football Outsiders. Those three dominated the Bucs on Sunday en route to a 40-point effort.

Expect the Saints offense to stay strong, but the question is whether the defense can bounce back.

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers (-3 SF to -6 SF)

Everything that could go wrong did for the Lions after a pick-six helped give them an early 7-0 lead over the Jets on Monday night. Detroit was then outscored 48-10 as the Jets scored touchdowns on offense, defense and special teams.

One can point to numerous reasons for the Lions' demise on Sunday, whether it be the pass defense (rookie quarterback Sam Darnold completed 80 percent of his passes following the interception), the run defense (Jets running backs Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell combined for 162 yards and two touchdowns) or the passing game (Lions quarterbacks threw five picks).

But the first domino for the Lions' defeat may have been their inability to establish the run. The Lions have had just one 1,000-yard rusher since 2004. This year looked promising with a revamped backfield, but the team totaled just 39 yards on 15 carries.

Bettors are abandoning ship on the Lions as the line proceeded to double in size. It makes sense, as the Lions have a day-and-a-half less of rest than their Week 2 opponent (the San Francisco 49ers). Detroit also has to travel 2,400 miles following that deflating loss, which isn't ideal.

Easy Over/Unders

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Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans: Under 43 Points

Tennessee Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota suffered an elbow injury that forced him to miss the end of his team's 27-20 loss to the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. Per Jim Wyatt of Titans Online, head coach Mike Vrabel said he expected both Mariota and backup Blaine Gabbert to play Sunday as the fourth-year player works his way back from injury.

More concerning is the status of left tackle Taylor Lewan, who suffered a concussion following a hit from Dolphins defensive end Andre Branch. He's out Sunday, as is right tackle Jack Conklin, who suffered a torn ACL last year but is expected to return this season.

The Titans offense may have serious issues moving the ball, especially if Mariota is at less than 100 percent (or has a setback and does not play). Even if Lewan and Mariota were 100 percent, a date against Texans edge-rushers J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney is never easy.

The Texans offense could light up the scoreboard and help push this game above the over/under total, but it's hard to imagine that Tennessee will generate much offense. 

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons: Under 44.5 Points

This is a tough game to project. On one end, the Carolina Panthers will be without tight end Greg Olsen (foot fracture), right tackle Daryl Williams (knee injury) and right guard Trai Turner (concussion).

On the other end, the Falcons lost safety Keanu Neal (torn ACL) for the season and will be without linebacker Deion Jones (foot injury) for at least eight games. Starting running back Devonta Freeman is also out with a knee injury.

The losses are massive on both sides, but the Panthers offensive line may be the house of cards sans Turner and Williams. Olsen is also quarterback Cam Newton's favorite target in recent years, as the tight end had three straight seasons of 1,000 yards or more from 2014 to 2016.

Otherwise, Carolina's strong defense (led by linebacker Luke Kuechly and defensive tackle Kawann Short) could fare well against a Falcons offense that has significant red-zone problems (1-of-5 in the opener against the Philadelphia Eagles).

Of course, Julio Jones could go off for his prototypical monster game, as can Newton. But based on Sunday's personnel, the under looks like the safer bet.

Value Bets

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New York Jets: Alternate Spread (-12) vs. Miami Dolphins at +350

The Jets defense have a few budding stars that could lead Gang Green to a playoff-contending season.

Linebacker Darron Lee earned Pro Football Focus' best grade at his position in Week 1 thanks in part to eight tackles and two interceptions.

Second-year safety Jamal Adams was fantastic against the run and pass. Of note, John Gatta of Pro Football Focus noted that Adams was targeted five times and had two pass defenses and one pick. The other two passes were short completions for 17 total yards. Adams also had three run stops, per PFF.

Couple those two with some other notable names (e.g. defensive end Leonard Williams and cornerback Trumaine Johnson), and you have the recipe for a stout defense.

That could spell doom for the visiting Miami Dolphins on Sunday. They have one game-breaking player to watch for at all times in wideout Kenny Stills, who caught four passes for 106 yards and two touchdowns against the Titans in Week 1. But if the Jets stop him and the run, New York may enjoy another sizable win.

Denver Broncos: Over 32.5 Points vs. Oakland Raiders at +225

New Denver Broncos quarterback Case Keenum is leading a rejuvenated offense that was fantastic running and passing the ball Sunday against the Seattle Seahawks.

The Hawks didn't have an answer for the Broncos' top running backs (Royce Freeman and Phillip Lindsay), who each had 71 rushing yards on 15 carries. Emmanuel Sanders also established a remarkable rapport with Keenum off the bat, as he caught 10 passes (on 11 targets) for 135 yards and a touchdown.

Overall, Denver was seventh in successful play rate, per Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Stats. That efficiency could bode well against an Oakland Raiders team that clearly missed edge-rusher Khalil Mack in a 33-13 loss to the Los Angeles Rams on Monday. Rams quarterback Jared Goff was sacked just once as L.A. overcame a sluggish first half to score 23 unanswered points in the final 30 minutes.

The Broncos offensive line did its part in keeping Keenum mostly clean, as he was just sacked once. If the line also protects well against Oakland, Denver could have another big offensive day.

Don't Get Sucked In (Sucker Bets)

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Los Angeles Rams (-1000) over Arizona Cardinals

The Los Angeles Rams have 1-10 odds to win Sunday. Those are the same odds that Secretariat, the greatest racehorse of all time, had to win the 1973 Belmont Stakes. Secretariat won that race by 31 lengths over his nearest competitor and set a track record that stands to this day.

The L.A. Rams are not invincible like Secretariat. They have the potential to be an excellent team, and head coach Sean McVay is a mad scientist with an unbelievable memory, but betting $1,000 to win just $100 is fool's gold.

The Rams are the clear favorites on paper and should win, but too much could go wrong. Arizona Cardinals running back David Johnson may gain 200-plus yards from scrimmage. Larry Fitzgerald could catch 10-yard pass after 10-yard pass to move the chains. And cornerback Patrick Peterson can change the game with one turnover or return touchdown.

Chances are the Rams win this one going away, but the return on investment simply isn't worth it.

New Orleans Saints (-470) over Cleveland Browns

The Saints-Browns blurb in the line-movement section listed reasons why bettors may feel confident in a New Orleans win. That being said, how confident can one be in New Orleans after it allowed 529 yards against the Buccaneers? Defensive backs were routinely beat for big plays, and they allowed touchdown strikes of 56, 50 and 36 yards.

The problem is the Browns have two capable wideouts in Jarvis Landry and Josh Gordon who can present issues. Landry and quarterback Tyrod Taylor connected seven times for 106 yards on Sunday. Gordon only had one catch (a 17-yard touchdown), but he has the juice to get by the Saints defense a la the Bucs' resident speedster, DeSean Jackson.

Like the Rams, betting the Saints doesn't bring a great return on investment either, with people needing $450 just to win $100. Better wagers can be found elsewhere.

Lock of the Week: Chicago Bears (-3 and -176 ML) over Seattle Seahawks

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The Seattle Seahawks lost only by three points to the Denver Broncos on Sunday, but some serious concerns arose from that game.

Per Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Stats, the 'Hawks offense had the third-lowest successful play rate at 29 percent. That was in large part to a dormant running game. As Sharp noted, running backs Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny had 14 percent success rates, which were last in Week 1.

Otherwise, the offensive line didn't fare well keeping quarterback Russell Wilson upright (six sacks), and No. 1 wideout Doug Baldwin is out for multiple weeks with an MCL sprain.

These offensive issues may foreshadow doom against the Chicago Bears defense and arguably the NFL's best edge-rusher in Khalil Mack. The ex-Oakland Raider had an interception return for a touchdown, a sack, and a forced fumble and recovery against the Packers on Sunday night, and the struggling Seahawks line will have its hands full.

If the Bears' ground game gets going (starter Jordan Howard kicked off his year with 107 yards from scrimmage), the home side looks like the strong bet.

All moneylines, spreads and over/under totals are via OddsShark and accurate as of Saturday at 1 a.m. ET. All other bet types are through Oddschecker and accurate as of Saturday at 1 a.m. ET.