The Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) will look to earn a rare victory against the Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0-1) on Sunday when they visit them as solid road underdogs at sportsbooks.
The Chiefs have dropped six of the past seven meetings with the Steelers, according to the OddsShark NFL Database, including a 19-13 loss last season in Week 6.
NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 32.9-16.9 Steelers (NFL picks on every game)
Why the Chiefs can cover the spread
Kansas City made a quarterback change this offseason, opting to deal Alex Smith to the Washington Redskins and go with second-year player Patrick Mahomes instead. Part of that was due to the team's offensive struggles versus elite teams like Pittsburgh.
The Chiefs have failed to score more than 16 points in the previous three meetings with the Steelers, but Mahomes led them to a 38-28 win over the Los Angeles Chargers last week. He threw four touchdown passes and gave them a much-needed boost.
Why the Steelers can cover the spread
Defensively, Kansas City did not play particularly well last week despite the win, surrendering 424 passing yards and three touchdowns to Los Angeles quarterback Philip Rivers.
The Chiefs allowed two touchdowns and two-point conversions in the fourth quarter alone, and the Steelers have arguably a better offense even with running back Le'Veon Bell holding out.
Pittsburgh is 20-3-1 straight up in its last 24 games as a favorite, including the 21-21 tie with the Cleveland Browns last week. The Steelers should also be extra motivated for their home opener after that disappointing deadlock.
Smart betting pick
Pittsburgh has failed to cover the spread in its last five home games, while Kansas City has thrived on the road the past two seasons.
The Chiefs have gone an impressive 11-4 SU and against the spread in their last 15 games away from home, and Mahomes adds a new wrinkle to the offense that the Steelers have not seen before.
Bell has been the player who has ripped through Kansas City's defense in the past, and he will be missed even more in Week 2. Look for the Chiefs to hang tough and possibly pull off the upset.
NFL betting trends
The total has gone under in six of the Chiefs' last seven games against the Steelers.
The Steelers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games at home.
The Chiefs are 11-4 SU and ATS in their last 15 games on the road.
All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.