Predicting Biggest Winners and Chokers in MLB Playoff Battles
September is fast approaching. MLB's various playoff battles are getting real.
Let's scan the baseball landscape and predict the biggest winners and chokers in the various postseason skirmishes.
For chokers, we'll zero in on clubs that have been in the hunt for most if not all of the 2018 campaign but are in serious danger of missing the dance. As for winners, we'll highlight teams that are poised to exceed expectations and make an October splash.
As a final note, we're excluding teams such as the Washington Nationals and San Francisco Giants that have decidedly choked, yet aren't in realistic contention.
Choker: Milwaukee Brewers
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For much of the year, the Milwaukee Brewers have either been in first place in the National League Central or nipping at the heels of the Chicago Cubs.
Now, the Brew Crew is five games out in the division, looking up at the Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals and clinging to the second wild-card position.
The biggest issue for Milwaukee is a pitching staff that has posted an NL-worst 5.31 ERA in August. Chase Anderson, the club's ostensible ace, owns a 5.61 August ERA.
Even if the Brewers manage to sneak into the postseason—a major "if"—they don't have the arms for a deep run.
Winner: St. Louis Cardinals
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The Cardinals made zero notable upgrades at the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. Instead, they shipped out MLB talent, including outfielder Tommy Pham, and fired manager Mike Matheny in mid-July.
Despite all that, the Cards own the NL's top wild-card slot.
Heap credit on infielder Matt Carpenter, who leads the Senior Circuit with 5.2 WAR by FanGraphs' calculation and is a bona fide MVP candidate.
"I never would have thought I'd be where I am right now, but if I keep putting good at-bats together, good things will happen," Carpenter said, summing up his and the Red Birds' situation, per MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch.
And don't sleep on a pitching staff that leads the NL with a 2.83 August ERA.
The Cardinals didn't add cavalry at the deadline. As it turns out, the pieces they had were good enough.
Choker: Seattle Mariners
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The Seattle Mariners have the game's longest active postseason drought at 16 years and counting.
"Counting" is the operative word.
The M's are on the edge of the American League playoff chase. They're seven games out in the division race and 4.5 out in the wild-card scuffle.
That's a tough hill to climb with September looming, and tougher still considering the Mariners pitching staff ranks 23rd in the game with a 4.95 August ERA.
Fallen ace Felix Hernandez isn't reversing time to save them. James Paxton is working his way back from yet another injury.
In a tough division and a top-heavy AL, general manager Jerry Dipoto didn't do enough to get Seattle past Game 162.
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Winner: Arizona Diamondbacks
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The Arizona Diamondbacks grabbed the top National League wild-card berth and advanced to the division series in 2017. Now, they're on track to win the division outright.
Granted, we've got a lot of baseball left to play. But the Los Angeles Dodgers haven't run away with things despite acquiring superstar shortstop Manny Machado from the Baltimore Orioles at the trade deadline, and the Colorado Rockies are a flawed foe.
The D-Backs, meanwhile, rank fifth in the game with a 3.20 August ERA. Star first baseman Paul Goldschmidt is peaking at the right time with a 1.124 OPS in August.
Add it up, and Arizona leads the NL West by 1.5 games over the Rockies and 2.5 over the Dodgers.
It's a tight battle that could go down to the wire, but the Snakes have a strong chance to prevail. Keep your eyes on two key series: when the Diamondbacks meet the Dodgers Aug. 30-Sept. 2, and when the two clubs clash Sept. 24-26.
Choker: Colorado Rockies
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The Rockies are in the thick of the NL West race, too.
One year after claiming the National League's second wild-card spot, Colorado could return to the postseason.
Now, the wet blanket: The Rockies own a minus-14 run differential. Their pitchers rank 20th in the game with a 4.56 August ERA. Just as damningly for a team that plays its home games at mile-high altitude, their hitters sit 19th with a .728 August OPS.
Charlie Blackmon, an MVP contender in 2017, has morphed into a payroll drag. And Colorado's decision to stand pat at the trade deadline did nothing to improve its fortunes.
A miracle run is always possible, but with the D-Backs in the driver's seat and the Dodgers lurking, the Rocks have also-ran written all over them.
Winner: Oakland Athletics
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The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are doing battle atop the AL East. What else is new? The Cleveland Indians are dominating in the weak AL Central. OK, sure.
The Oakland A's are challenging the defending world champion Houston Astros in the AL West. Wait...what?
The A's have been the coolest story of 2018, rising from the dregs of mediocrity to become a surprise postseason hopeful.
They've slipped into second place in the division after briefly overtaking the 'Stros. But they're in line to win a wild-card berth and after that...who knows?
Their pitchers rank fourth in baseball with a 2.89 August ERA. Their hitters also rank fourth in the calendar month with a .796 OPS.
Just when you thought executive Billy Beane's run of Moneyball magic had ended, here we go again.
All statistics and standings current entering Tuesday and courtesy of Baseball Reference.
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