2018 Fantasy Football Big Board: Updated Rankings Before Preseason Week 3
With more than two weeks to go before the Philadelphia Eagles host the Atlanta Falcons in the regular-season opener, the fantasy world tries to navigate a minefield of injuries.
A knee strain will keep Jerick McKinnon off the field until Week 1, according to 49ers GM John Lynch on KNBR 680 with Brian Murphy. With a major role on tap and other injuries in the same backfield, the 49ers are likely playing it safe with McKinnon. Still, questions about his durability were present before this injury and won't be going away anytime soon.
Saquon Barkley remains sidelined by a hamstring injury, and while it's almost definitely another example of being extra cautious, any soft-tissue injury is a cause for concern since a tweak can result in a setback.
The Eagles have questions about multiple starters heading into the start of their championship defense. While Carson Wentz continues his comeback, he's not a lock to start Week 1. The same goes for Alshon Jeffery, as he continues his recovery from offseason shoulder surgery.
You might be looking for clarity with some of these injuries. It would be nice to say we'll know more at this time next week, but if you're being realistic, the updates from the coaches and teams will likely be vague. They don't care about our fantasy teams.
My rankings will update more often than this article, so you can bookmark this page to see the latest changes at any given point in the preseason. While this article focuses on PPR formats, that bookmark provides my rankings for PPR, standard and half-PPR scoring systems.
Note: All ADP data and fantasy stats used to calculate finishes from FantasyPros. All advanced stats calculated using data from Pro Football Reference. All stats are based on points per reception (PPR) format.
Top 100
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An updated look at the ADP data reveals the first 100 picks are comprised of 10 quarterbacks, 38 running backs, 42 wide receivers and 10 tight ends, which is no change from last week. Two weeks ago, the first 100 picks consisted of 11 QBs, 38 RBs, 41 WRs and 10 TEs. Despite significant injuries among the RBs, that number didn't change.
With two preseason games in the books, check out this breakdown of the best and worst situations around the league. Consider this a way to break a tie between potential draft picks. The in-between group shows teams on the rise after less-than-ideal fantasy situations in 2017.
Most fantasy-friendly based on talent, coaching and volume:
- Atlanta Falcons
- Green Bay Packers
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Los Angeles Rams
- Minnesota Vikings
- New England Patriots
- New Orleans Saints
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Pittsburgh Steelers
Teams that should improve based on talent, coaching and volume, but still have some questions:
- Chicago Bears
- Indianapolis Colts
- New York Giants
Teams you might want to avoid based on talent, coaching and volume:
- Arizona Cardinals
- Baltimore Ravens
- Buffalo Bills
- Miami Dolphins
- New York Jets
2018 Top 100 PPR Rankings
Quarterbacks
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Notable Changes in Rankings
8. Andrew Luck (up four spots)
In an effort to be transparent, Luck's shift to the No. 8 spot on my QB rankings happened over the weekend. His performance against the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night was disappointing, but not the end of the world. The Colts were without TY Hilton and Marlon Mack, and Luck worked behind a patchwork offensive line.
Moving Luck up was more about believing in his chances of having a big, bounce-back season with a higher ceiling than Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees and Philip Rivers. Luck's performance against the Ravens doesn't change that belief.
Targets Based on Value
Philip Rivers, LAC
Current ADP: 113.8/QB14
Last Week's ADP: 115.8/QB15
My Ranking: QB11 (down one spot)
Overvalued Players
Jimmy Garoppolo, SF
Current ADP: 103.0/QB11
Last Week's ADP: 97.4/QB10
My Ranking: QB14 (no change)
Garoppolo has now slipped two spots among QBs since the beginning of the preseason. He's still going a little early, but it no longer costs as much to get a fairly unproven player.
Potential Sleepers
Patrick Mahomes, KC
Current ADP: 123.0/QB16
Last Week's ADP: 116.8/QB16
My Ranking: QB17 (no change)
Mitch Trubisky, CHI
Current ADP: 160.3/QB21
Last Week's ADP: 152.4/QB21
My Ranking: QB20 (up one spot)
Eli Manning
Current ADP: 175.8/QB25
Last Week's ADP: new addition
My Ranking: QB21 (up one spot)
Other Names to Monitor
Carson Wentz
Current ADP: 72.8/QB6
Last Week's ADP: new addition
My Ranking: QB5
Wentz has yet to take the field in the preseason and may not play at all, according to Adam Schefter of ESPN.com. That news may not be surprising, but Wentz's ADP could slip a little if that's perceived as negative. According to Jimmy Kempski of PhillyVoice.com, Wentz said it would be "close" when asked about starting Week 1.
2018 Quarterback Rankings
| 1 | Aaron Rodgers GB (7) |
| 2 | Deshaun Watson HOU (10) |
| 3 | Russell Wilson SEA (7) |
| 4 | Tom Brady NE (11) |
| 5 | Carson Wentz PHI (9) |
| 6 | Cam Newton CAR (4) |
| 7 | Kirk Cousins MIN (10) |
| 8 | Andrew Luck IND (9) |
| 9 | Ben Roethlisberger PIT (7) |
| 10 | Drew Brees NO (6) |
| 11 | Philip Rivers LAC (8) |
| 12 | Matthew Stafford DET (6) |
| 13 | Jared Goff LAR (12) |
| 14 | Jimmy Garoppolo SF (11) |
| 15 | Matt Ryan ATL (8) |
| 16 | Marcus Mariota TEN (8) |
| 17 | Patrick Mahomes KC (12) |
| 18 | Alex Smith WAS (4) |
| 19 | Dak Prescott DAL (8) |
| 20 | Mitch Trubisky CHI (5) |
| 21 | Eli Manning NYG (9) |
| 22 | Derek Carr OAK (7) |
| 23 | Case Keenum DEN (10) |
| 24 | Ryan Tannehill MIA (11) |
| 25 | Blake Bortles JAC (9) |
| 26 | Andy Dalton CIN (9) |
| 27 | Jameis Winston TB (5) |
| 28 | Joe Flacco BAL (10) |
| 29 | Sam Bradford ARI (9) |
| 30 | Baker Mayfield CLE (11) |
| 31 | Josh Allen BUF (11) |
| 32 | Josh McCown NYJ (11) |
| 33 | Sam Darnold NYJ (11) |
| 34 | Tyrod Taylor CLE (11) |
| 35 | Josh Rosen ARI (9) |
| 36 | Ryan Fitzpatrick TB (5) |
| 37 | Lamar Jackson BAL (10) |
| 38 | AJ McCarron BUF (11) |
Running Backs
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Notable Changes in Rankings
12. Joe Mixon, CIN (up two spots)
13. Devonta Freeman, ATL (down one spot)
14. Jerick McKinnon, SF (down one spot)
McKinnon's injury is reason enough to move him down, at least until something more concrete and positive comes out about his status for the beginning of the regular season.
Upon further review, moving Mixon over Freeman makes sense based on opportunity. While Freeman is a talented RB, he has to deal with Tevin Coleman in the same backfield in addition to Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu and Calvin Ridley all battling for targets. Mixon is the unquestioned leader of the Bengals backfield, and the only other Bengal worthy of a big, consistent role is A.J. Green.
22. Royce Freeman, DEN (up 12 spots)
Freeman is turning into the survivor of the rookie RBs this preseason. He's avoided the injury bug and serious competition from his backfield mates, Devontae Booker and De'Angelo Henderson. Opportunity goes a long way, especially since Freeman is far from a superstar talent. He should lead the Broncos RBs in touches.
32. Ronald Jones, TB (down six spots)
Even though the Buccaneers likely drafted Jones with the intent of his leading the backfield as a rookie, that may not happen at the beginning of the season. Through two preseason games, Jones has 11 yards and a TD on 12 carries. Head coach Dirk Koetter referred to Peyton Barber as "our starter," according to Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times. Considering his struggles, Jones has taken himself right out of the RB2 conversation and is slipping toward the end of the RB3 group.
Targets Based on Value
Dion Lewis, TEN
Current ADP: 58.6/RB24
Last Week's ADP: 61.0/RB27
My Ranking: RB18 (no change)
Tarik Cohen, CHI
Current ADP: 81.4/RB33
Last Week's ADP: 77.2/RB29
My Ranking: RB24 (no change)
Duke Johnson, CLE
Current ADP: 86.2/RB35
Last Week's ADP: 91.2/RB37
My Ranking: RB29 (down two spots)
Jamaal Williams, GB
Current ADP: 93.8/RB38
Last Week's ADP: new addition
My Ranking: RB34 (up five spots)
Even though Williams injured his ankle in the second preseason game, he was back to taking handoffs by Monday's practice, according to Jason Wilde of Madison.com. Williams keeps his great value as the likely lead back for the Packers to open the season.
Overvalued Players
Derrick Henry, TEN
Current ADP: 41.0/RB18
Last Week's ADP: 40.8/RB19
My Ranking: RB33 (up three spots)
Kenyan Drake, MIA
Current ADP: 38.6/RB17
Last Week's ADP: new addition
My Ranking: RB26 (down three spots)
Potential Sleepers
Corey Clement, PHI
Current ADP: 133.5/RB48
Last Week's ADP: 140.8/RB48
My Ranking: RB39 (down one spot)
Other Names to Monitor
Rashaad Penny, SEA
Current ADP: 67.8/RB26
Last Week's ADP: 49.2/RB22
My Ranking: RB27 (up one spot)
Chris Carson, SEA
Current ADP: 104.8/RB39
Last Week's ADP: 133/RB44
My Ranking: RB41 (up two spots)
Ronald Jones, TB
Current ADP: 61.6/RB25
Last Week's ADP: new addition
My Ranking: RB32 (down six spots)
Peyton Barber, TB
Current ADP: 143.4/RB47
Last Week's ADP: new addition
My Ranking: RB49 (up 27 spots)
2018 Running Back PPR Rankings
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Wide Receivers
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Notable Changes in Rankings
16. Jarvis Landry, CLE (up five spots)
The return of Josh Gordon is positive news for the Browns, but it's only the first step of his comeback. Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com reported that head coach Hue Jackson said Gordon had "a chance" of being ready for Week 1. Gordon's work to get back to practice will continue to keep him out of the third preseason game.
It's become apparent just how important Landry is to the Browns offense. Gordon hasn't been around, Corey Coleman was shipped to Buffalo, and Dez Bryant visited but wasn't signed. Regardless of who plays QB for the Browns, you can bet on Landry being busy.
21. Chris Hogan, NE (up eight spots)
As the top WR in New England for at least the first four weeks of the regular season, Hogan isn't generating a lot of buzz. Julian Edelman's suspension coupled with Brandin Cooks' vacating 19.5 percent of last year's target shares means Hogan is a very important part of a strong offense. Plus, the Patriots backfield is in some disarray, as both Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead are battling knee injuries.
If all that wasn't enough, Hogan and the Patriots have talked about a contract extension, according to Jeff Howe of The Athletic. If the Patriots are at least discussing a new deal for Hogan, his importance to them is clear. You should be targeting Hogan in your drafts. His current ADP is 61.6/WR26.
24. Alshon Jeffery, PHI (down five spots)
Jeffery has yet to come off the PUP list thanks to his ongoing recovery from shoulder surgery. After Ian Rapoport of NFL.com reported Jeffery could remain on the PUP for the first six weeks of the season, head coach Doug Pederson said he wasn't "sure where that came from," according to Jimmy Kempski of PhillyVoice.com.
Any questions about Jeffery's health will affect his draft status with an ADP dip to 59.4/WR25. The more time Jeffery misses, the more his stock will drop. Even if he's not on the PUP to open the season, Jeffery could still miss games.
Targets Based on Value
Demaryius Thomas, DEN
Current ADP: 42.4/WR18
Last Week's ADP: 44/WR18
My Ranking: WR12 (no change)
Marquise Goodwin, SF
Current ADP: 73.2/WR29
Last Week's ADP: 99.2/WR44
My Ranking: WR23
The buzz on Goodwin is very real, and his ADP has shot up as a result, yet he's still a value with an ADP outside the top 25 WRs.
Nelson Agholor, PHI
Current ADP: 107.8/WR44
Last Week's ADP: 111/WR44
My Ranking: WR27 (no change)
Overvalued Players
Tyreek Hill, KC
Current ADP: 28.6/WR10
Last Week's ADP: 29.8/WR12
My Ranking: WR22 (no change)
It was almost too easy to predict a bump in Hill's ADP after he and Patrick Mahomes connected for a 69-yard TD in the second preseason game. Hill is a great player, but consistency might be a problem with Mahomes in his first year as a starter.
Amari Cooper, OAK
Current ADP: 36.0/WR16
Last Week's ADP: 36.8/WR16
My Ranking: WR28 (down three spots)
Michael Crabtree, BAL
Current ADP: 67.6/WR28
Last Week's ADP: 68.8/WR27
My Ranking: WR41 (no change)
Potential Sleepers
Kenny Stills, MIA
Current ADP: 123.2/WR48
Last Week's ADP: new addition
My Ranking: WR42 (up seven spots)
Cameron Meredith, NO
Current ADP: 133.0/WR51
Last Week's ADP: 140.6/WR50
My Ranking: WR46 (down one spot)
Paul Richardson, WAS
Current ADP: 163.3/WR61
Last Week's ADP: 169.2/WR62
My Ranking: WR48 (up five spots)
Other Names to Monitor
Josh Gordon, CLE
Current ADP: 50.6/WR23
Last Week's ADP: new addition
My Ranking: WR36 (down two spots)
2018 Wide Receiver PPR Rankings
Tight Ends
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Notable Changes in Rankings
10. David Njoku, CLE (up 11 spots)
Njoku's rise up my rankings may seem dramatic, but that's happened over two weeks. With no Big Board article last week, his first jump into the top 15 wasn't documented. Much like Jarvis Landry's jump, some of Njoku's boost comes from the initial absence of Josh Gordon, not signing Dez Bryant and the trade of Corey Coleman to the Buffalo Bills.
Of course, Njoku's skills have been on display during preseason action and in a featured segment on Hard Knocks. The former first-round pick has a good chance to break out in his second season.
Targets Based on Value
Jack Doyle, IND
Current ADP: 111.4/TE11
Last Week's ADP: 115.4/TE11
My Ranking: TE9 (no change)
Overvalued Players
Evan Engram, NYG
Current ADP: 62.2/TE6
Last Week's ADP: 61.8/TE5
My Ranking: TE8 (no change)
Jordan Reed, WAS
Current ADP: 87.6/TE9
Last Week's ADP: 87/TE9
My Ranking: TE13 (down one spot)
Potential Sleepers
David Njoku, CLE
Current ADP: 114.8/TE12
Last Week's ADP: new addition
My Ranking: TE10 (up 11 spots)
Trey Burton, CHI
Current ADP: 96.6/TE10
Last Week's ADP: 96.6/TE10
My Ranking: TE11 (no change)
Other Names to Monitor
George Kittle, SF
Current ADP: 134.6/TE13
Last Week's ADP: 122.6/TE12
My Ranking: TE12 (down two spots)
Kittle's shoulder injury is one to monitor leading up to Week 1. He won't play in the preseason, so with players like Burton and Njoku on the rise, Kittle's standing among the potential breakout TEs has taken a hit.
2018 Tight End PPR Rankings
Defenses/Kickers
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Defenses
When it comes to picking defenses, you should show patience and wait until the final two rounds. Instead of taking the top-ranked Jaguars in the 12th round, use that pick to bolster your bench at another position. If you aren't required to draft a defense, feel free to ignore the position and grab one off the waiver wire before Week 1.
At the end of the month, the final big board article will include defense targets to draft or add off the waiver wire based on exploitable schedules to open the season. Streaming defenses is a smart strategy to use throughout the season since playing the matchups is the best way to attack the position.
Kickers
If your league believes in sticking with the kicker position, don't bother making it a priority.
Accuracy and opportunity are the top factors to focus on when looking for kickers, but you can address that on the waiver wire if your league allows you to bypass the position in the draft. You’re better off taking a shot on a skill player and delaying the decision on your kicker until right before Week 1. It's never hard to find good kickers.
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