PGA Championship 2018 Odds: Vegas Projections for Top Picks in This Year's Field

The PGA Championship is the last of golf's major tournaments, and the biggest question going into the event is whether anyone can stop Justin Thomas.

After winning the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational Sunday at the Firestone Country Club in Akron, Ohio, Thomas is clearly on top of his game as he goes into the PGA Championship as the defending titlist.

This year's PGA will be played at the Bellerive Country Club in Town and Country, Missouri, a site that hasn't hosted a major tournament since 1992.

Bellerive is a 7,547-yard, par-71 course, and water comes into play on 11 of the 18 holes. It has large, undulating greens, but it appears to be easier than Augusta National, Shinnecock Hills or Carnoustie, the courses that hosted the Masters, U.S. Open and British Open, respectively.

Thomas broke away from a crowded field to win last year's PGA at Quail Hollow in Charlotte, North Carolina. Thomas finished with eight under par, two strokes better than Patrick Reed, Francesco Molinari and Louis Oosthuizen.

Tiger Woods will compete in the field, and he struggled in the final two rounds at Bridgestone, shooting a three-over 73 in each of the final two rounds after starting 66-68. Woods has not complained of any injuries, so he should be in good shape at Bellerive if he can put his last two rounds at Firestone behind him. Woods will be shooting for the 15th major championship of his career.

Dustin Johnson is the +1000 favorite to win the final major of the year, according to OddsShark. A $100 wager on Johnson would return a profit of $1,000 to the bettor if Johnson was successful in picking up the second major title of his career.

Rory McIlroy is the +1200 second choice, while Jordan Spieth is +1400.

Thomas starts the week at +1800 and so is Justin Rose. It would not be a surprise if the odds on Thomas come down after his win at Bridgestone.

Woods and Rickie Fowler both come into the PGA at +2000.

Here's a look at the odds for the betting favorites in the field:

Dustin Johnson +1000
Rory McIlroy +1200
Jordan Spieth +1400
Justin Thomas +1800
Justin Rose +1800
Tiger Woods +2000
Rickie Fowler +2000
Brooks Koepka +2200
Francesco Molinari +2200
Jason Day +2500
Jon Rahm +2500
Tommy Fleetwood +2800
Hideki Matsuyama +3500
Henrik Stenson +3500
Patrick Reed +4000
Sergio Garcia +4000
Bubba Watson +4000
Xander Schauffele +4000
Paul Casey +5000
Tony Finau +5000
Alexander Noren +5000
Phil Mickelson +6600
Matt Kuchar +6600
Branden Grace +6600
Patrick Cantlay +6600
Kevin Kisner +6600

It's hard to look past Thomas after his win at Bridgestone. He is perhaps the most consistent golfer on the tour, and the Bellerive course fits his game well because he should be able to be quite aggressive. 

"I'm glad I finally played well around here, just in time for it to leave," Thomas said to analyst Peter Kostis (h/t Kyle Porter of CBS Sports). "I got a little choked up when I saw grandma and grandpa over there. It's really cool. They don't get to come out very often anymore. This is my first PGA Tour win with them here, so it's pretty cool."

Perhaps he will consider bringing them to Missouri.

It's difficult to overlook Johnson in any big tournament, because he has so much natural talent and can hit the ball as far as anyone on the tour. Johnson has three tournament wins this season, and he has the all-around game to set the standard at Bellerive.

The smart money may be on Rose for two reasons. He is one of the most consistent players on the tour, and he knows how to rise to the occasion at the biggest tournaments. He finished tied for second in the British Open, and a good start by Rose in the PGA should allow him to be in prime contending position for four rounds.

McIlroy has to do a better job with his putter to this point in the season. While nearly all other aspects of his game seem to be working, McIlroy ranks 110th in strokes gained putting, and that's not good enough for any player who wants to win a major tournament. McIlroy had a strong showing at Carnoustie (tied for second), and he could use that performance to help him get off to a solid start at the PGA.

Koepka won the U.S. Open as he showed he knows how to rise to the occasion at the biggest moments. He has great distance off the tee and with his long irons, but he struggles with his approach shots, ranking 171st in that area. That's usually not going to get it done in the majors, but Koepka is as tough-minded a competitor as there is on the tour, and he looks forward to the big stage.

Woods has performed better than expected in 2018 as he has displayed all of his skills this year. However, he has not put them together at the same time. In weeks where he has driven the ball well, his putting has been off. When his iron play has been sharp, his approaches have not always been good.

If Woods puts it all together, he has a chance to contend here.

Projections

It's difficult to go against Johnson when previewing any tournament because he has so much ability. If Johnson is at his best, he is not going to lose.

McIlroy is getting near top form, but he has to get his putter going. Rose is a sensational talent who is not going to be intimidated.

However, Thomas looks like the best golfer in the field, and he is red-hot. He would love to defend his PGA Championship title and take the Wanamaker Trophy once again. The belief here is that Thomas does the job and wins his second major title.