MLB Trade Deadline 2018: B.S. Meter, Predictions on All the Last-Minute Rumors
MLB rumors have circulated at lightning speed as the hourglass inches closer to Tuesday's 4 p.m. ET non-waiver trade deadline.
With many sources—including the trolls who impersonate reporters to post fake trades—filling feeds, it has become increasingly difficult for fans to decide what to believe. Even some thoroughly reported stories will amount to nothing.
Take it from someone trying to round out recent rumors, only to find one report that invalidates the other minutes later. There's an avalanche of information to navigate, so it helps to apply a "B.S. Meter" to every scoop.
If the NBA can have "Woj bombs," baseball fans can keep refreshing their devices for "Buster bombs," "Ken burns" and "Hey makers." No? Fine, forget it. Let's weigh the validity of the latest rumors on the verge of Tuesday's deadline.
Teams Not 'Terribly Excited' About Matt Harvey
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Contenders may not be enthused about acquiring Matt Harvey, but that will change after perusing the alternatives.
Per The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal, teams are "not terribly excited" about the 29-year-old righty. Fair enough. A 5.13 ERA and 73 strikeouts in 100 innings, after all, is not terribly exciting.
Yet as Rosenthal also noted, his ERA has strengthened to 3.63 since joining the Cincinnati Reds in May. On Saturday, he momentarily flashed back to 2015 by firing a 98-mph heater.
With J.A. Happ, Nathan Eovaldi and Cole Hamels already traded, a diminished Harvey may still represent the top starting-pitching rental by default. Tyson Ross, who like Harvey underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome, has relinquished an 8.87 ERA in five July starts.
Harvey is a far cry from the ace who steered the Mets to the 2015 National League pennant. He'd still upgrade the Oakland Athletics' mediocre rotation or give the Seattle Mariners back-end depth. The Milwaukee Brewers or Colorado Rockies would likely prefer a better option with a longer contract (Harvey is a free agent after this season), but he's the best fallback plan on the block.
Cincinnati should not expect a huge haul for the reclamation project. Some contender, however, will bite on an affordable former ace enjoying a mild resurgence away from the New York tabloids.
B.S. Meter: Medium
Prediction: The Athletics acquire Harvey for a fringe prospect.
Mets Leaning Toward Keeping Zack Wheeler
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Zack Wheeler is earning admiration from multiple teams with his recent stellar pitching. That includes the New York Mets.
Earlier this month, the New York Post's Mike Puma inscribed a "50-50" chance of the Mets trading the flourishing righty. He has since won his last three starts, most recently tossing six shutout innings Sunday.
Following Wheeler's weekend gem, Puma updated his trade probability on Twitter: "There has been a shift in the last few days, in which the Mets believe they are more likely to keep Wheeler than trade him, based on the unsatisfactory offers they are receiving."
MLB.com's Mark Feinsand reported a similar sentiment. While a half-dozen teams have reportedly expressed interest, he said the club's "asking price has increased, as have Wheeler's chances of remaining with New York." Fancred's Jon Heyman said no squad "has even come close" to meeting their demands.
This could all be a smoke screen to further enlarge his trade value. Some onlookers would argue now is the perfect time to trade a 28-year-old whose career has been besieged by injuries. In a market light on impact arms, Wheeler—who has posted a 2.96 ERA in his last eight starts—would fetch a mighty return.
Yet he's under contract through 2019, so the Mets have the leverage to walk away if not offered the right package. With his going rate increasing after every turn, someone must force their hand to reach a pact by Tuesday afternoon.
Several NL playoff contenders (Brewers, Rockies, Braves) have a rotation need and intriguing minor league talent, so don't assume Wheeler is certainly staying put. It is, however, now looking like the more likely outcome.
B.S. Meter: Low
Nationals Pursuing J.T. Realmuto
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J.T. Realmuto dealt a blow to the Washington Nationals' playoff pursuit by submitting a walk-off single Saturday. Bryce Harper's postgame remarks regarding the Miami Marlins catcher, courtesy of MLB.com's Jamal Collier, raised some eyebrows.
"If that guy was on our side, it wouldn't have happened," Harper said. "So, tough luck."
With Nationals catcher Matt Wieters batting .196/.295/.308, the comment came off as a not-so-subtle message to management. After all, the Marlins traded all three members of their star-studded outfield (Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna) last offseason. What's one more stud out the door?
Less than 24 hours after Harper's postgame statement, Heyman said the two NL East squads have not dismissed the possibility of a deal involving Realmuto. Although splitting a four-game series with the Marlins kept them below .500 (52-53), the Nationals are reportedly open to dealing Victor Robles or Carter Kieboom, their top two prospects.
This contradicts a report last week from Rosenthal, who said Washington won't move Robles for Realmuto because of Harper's pending free agency. MLB.com's No. 5-ranked prospect looked on the precipice of receiving a big league opportunity before suffering a shoulder injury in April. Juan Soto instead beat the 21-year-old to the majors.
That's an expensive price for a team still wavering between buying or selling. Before Sunday's loss, ESPN's Buster Olney said the game's outcome could determine their path. They can't afford to appease Harper by trading his possible replacement.
Especially if he doesn't last the season in Washington.
B.S. Meter: High
Prediction: The Marlins hang onto Realmuto and field offers in the offseason.
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Bryce Harper Is Available
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What other team can be linked to acquiring an All-Star and trading another during the same week?
Instead of gearing up for one last run before Harper tests the open market, the Nationals could instead replenish their farm system at the 2015 NL MVP's expense. Formerly perceived as the longest of long shots, a bombshell on Monday night changed everything.
According to MLB.com's Mark Feinsand, the Nationals are now informing teams of Harper's availability. Any contender would improve by adding the 25-year-old outfielder, but one title hopeful stands out as a particularly ideal fit.
Per MLB.com's Jon Morosi, the Cleveland Indians discussed a Harper deal with Washington. Just about every sentence in his report, however, tries to quell excitement over a potential blockbuster. The price is understandably high, and negotiations had not picked up steam as of early Monday evening.
Cleveland's farm system is also running out of marquee prospects after the Indians dealt Francisco Mejia to the San Diego Padres for Brad Hand and Adam Cimber. Pitchers Triston McKenzie and Shane Bieber are the club's only two best prospects (McKenzie is ranked No. 37 on MLB.com), so a deal would likely require at least one going to D.C. Morosi later said the Indians are unwilling to trade Bieber.
A gaping void in right field makes Cleveland—seeking its first championship since 1948—the top candidate to snag him if available.
Should this trade happen? Probably. Removing emotion from the equation, trading Harper makes sense. While the Nationals may fear chasing him away, free agents (Aroldis Chapman, Jay Bruce) have rejoined teams who sent them packing months earlier. They can pitch him a brighter future buoyed by their trade haul.
Will it happen? Even after Feinsand's surprising tidbit, it's hard to see the Nationals going through with the bold course reversal at the final hour. The Washington Post's Chelsea Janes described the chances as "highly unlikely," and a source told Rosenthal the Nationals are merely doing their due diligence by "seeing if someone wants to go crazy."
B.S. Meter: High
Prediction: Nationals retain Harper in hopes of making the playoffs and re-signing him.
Cardinals Entertaining Offers for Bud Norris and Jose Martinez
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The St. Louis Cardinals have not finished a season with a losing record since 2007, when they followed an improbable World Series championship with a 78-84 mark. That commendable streak is in jeopardy, as they approach Tuesday's deadline at 54-52.
More important to their trading objectives, the fourth-place Cardinals trail the Chicago Cubs by seven-and-a-half games in the NL Central. While only four games away from the second wild-card spot, they must leapfrog four teams to punch a ticket to the play-in game.
The odds of a full-fledged sell are minuscule. Yet according to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Derrick Goold, the club is "open to discussing offers" for closer Bud Norris and first baseman Jose Martinez.
Pitching on a one-year, $3 million deal, the 33-year-old Norris has surprisingly bookended St. Louis' bullpen with 20 saves and a career-low 3.14 ERA. As of Monday, per FanGraphs, his 27.0 strikeout-minus-walks percentage ranks 12th among all qualified relievers.
Trading the pending free agent especially makes sense after acquiring relief pitchers Giovanny Gallegos and Chasen Shreve from the New York Yankees for Luke Voit. If they're still holding out hope for a playoff push, the Cardinals could wait until August to flip Norris through waivers.
Martinez may initially seem like an odder trade candidate. Although he turned 30 last week, the late bloomer is only playing his second full major league season. That means he has another full season before even beginning his first of three arbitration years.
Batting .294/.358/.459 with 13 home runs, he's giving the Cardinals plenty of bang for their buck. His poor fielding, however, makes the 6'6" slugger a better fit as an American League squad's designated hitter. The Cardinals could then move Matt Carpenter across the diamond and give Jedd Gyorko a regular role at third base.
Because of his limited service time, there's no urgency to move Martinez now. That's for the best, as no AL contender needs a DH. It's a good idea to revisit this winter.
B.S. Meter: Mild
Prediction: The Cardinals trade Norris in August (barring a playoff run) and shop Martinez in the offseason.
Slumping Giants Won't Sell
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Like the Cardinals, the San Francisco Giants conclude July in no man's land. After losing seven of their last 10 games, the 54-54 squad has fallen to the back of a crowded wild-card race while trailing the NL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers by five-and-a-half games.
The only thing less likely than the Giants salvaging a playoff berth? The Giants selling. According to ESPN's Jerry Crasnick, the 2014 world champions "do not think they're out of it" despite mounting evidence to the contrary.
Way out of the playoff picture last summer, they limited their activity to dealing Eduardo Nunez, a pending free agent, to the Boston Red Sox. They're once again poorly positioned to sell, barring a complete makeover. Andrew McCutchen is their lone pending free agent of interest.
Don't count on that rebuild. Heyman dismissed any possibility of the Giants moving Madison Bumgarner.
Trading Bumgarner wouldn't be so crazy. His trade value is not at its peak because of a fractured left hand delaying his 2018 debut to June. Yet a poor market, combined with his 3.06 ERA and memories of postseason glory, could steer contenders to nevertheless offer a smorgasbord of young talent that San Francisco desperately needs.
An interesting thought, but it will never happen. The Giants usually keep their homegrown stars, so they're far more likely to offer their ace a long-term extension before he can leave next year.
They have relievers (Will Smith, Tony Watson, Sam Dyson) to dangle, but as Crasnick alluded to, the number of available bullpen arms is beginning to eclipse the demand. McCutchen is an interesting name to watch if San Francisco falls out of the hunt in August.
B.S. Meter: Mild
Prediction: The Giants stand pat at the non-waiver deadline but will move McCutchen if they don't gain ground in August.
Braves Discuss Adrian Beltre with Rangers
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Does any contender want a future Hall of Famer? If so, Adrian Beltre may be available.
It's not a definite, as the 39-year-old can block any trade by exercising his 10-and-5 rights. Per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, the third baseman said he has discussed his options with Texas Rangers general manager Jon Daniels. Yet he did not definitely state if he'll approve a deal.
"I've always been at peace with being here," Beltre said. "Obviously, we have talked before [about a trade], and if it makes sense for both parties, I would consider it. But up until now, there's nothing concrete that we can sit and talk about."
Grant cited the Atlanta Braves as a team of "serious interest." Their name circulated again on Monday, when Morosi said they have continued to talk with Texas about acquiring Beltre.
Per Morosi's report, Beltre is more likely to allow a trade to the Cleveland, the Boston Red Sox or Houston Astros. FanGraphs assigns each of those AL squads a probability above 99.0 percent to reach the postseason. The Braves, who have lost 13 of their last 20 games, are down to 33.3 on deadline day.
Besides, they don't really need Beltre. Sporting his worst OPS (.745) since 2005 with just five home runs in 73 games, the veteran righty would currently represent a downgrade to Johan Camargo, who wields a .791 OPS. When addressing a rumor regarding Mike Moustakas before the Royals traded him to the Brewers, Crasnick said the Braves are "happy" with the 24-year-old as their starting third baseman.
After sending Rafael Devers back to the disabled list, Boston is most in need of third-base assistance. He could even help the New York Yankees as a designated hitter with Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez sidelined.
B.S. Meter: Medium
Prediction: Beltre approves a trade to Boston.
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