UFC on Fox 30: Main Card Staff Predictions
The UFC is finally—finally—returning to Canada's Cowtown: Calgary, Alberta.
After one of the most derided and detested events the UFC ever put on took place there in 2012, Dana White made bold claims about a return some time in the future.
That return would make up for the pathetic show the promotion brought to the Scotiabank Saddledome on that fateful summer's eve and erase the bad memories it left as well.
Although it took almost exactly six years for the return to happen, happen it will. And it's bringing some pop.
This weekend, the promotion has Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier, Jose Aldo and Jeremy Stephens, and a Joanna Jedrzejczyk appearance—as good a Fox offering as there's been in 2018 and probably the best you'll see before the UFC is an ESPN commodity.
Calgarians would have to be stoked, and some might even tell you it was worth the wait.
Scott Harris, Nathan McCarter, Steven Rondina and Matthew Ryder are here to take a guess at who's coming out on top in the main card fights.
Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs. Alexander Hernandez
1 of 4
Harris: Hernandez made quite an impression in his UFC debut when he shocked Beneil Dariush. Aubin-Mercier will need to be careful, but his talent in the clinch and on the ground would appear to give him an advantage over a still-lesser-known quantity in Hernandez.
Aubin-Mercier, unanimous decision
McCarter: I'll side with the young buck here. Aubin-Mercier is going to be a stiff challenge as someone who is competent in all areas, but he will lack the athletic ability to keep up with Hernandez through all three rounds. Hernandez won't be able to get the finish, but he'll score plenty to get a clean sweep on the cards.
Hernandez, unanimous decision
Rondina: This one comes just shy of being a squash match, in my book. Hernandez is good for where he is in his career, but contrary to UFC official rankings logic, scoring a flash knockout over a ranked name doesn't suddenly make you a top-end talent. Aubin-Mercier has the larger body of work and his first-round pasting of steely veteran Evan Dunham suggests he may have finally hit his stride as a potential elite talent. The UFC is setting the Quebec Kid for a layup here, and he'll almost certainly make the most of it.
Aubin-Mercier, submission, Rd. 1
Ryder: Hernandez is quietly lurking on the fringes of the top 10, while Aubin-Mercier is less quietly lurking as your favorite fighter on social media. His Canadian Gangster gimmick—complete with pencil mustache and fanny pack—is winning fans over, and his convincing decision win on home soil will do the same this weekend.
Aubin-Mercier, unanimous decision
Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Tecia Torres
2 of 4
Harris: Like Jose Aldo in the co-main event, Joanna Champion is a humbled champ in bad need of a rebound. So on paper you feel bad for Torres, a great fighter whose powerful style won't be able to keep pace with the ex-champ's quick-twitch muay thai.
Jedrzejczyk, unanimous decision
McCarter: I mean this as no disrespect to Torres, but Jedrzejczyk is going to tune her up for however long needed until the referee steps in. The former champ is much better at what Torres likes to do, and that's pretty much the brass tacks of the matchup.
Jedrzejczyk, TKO, Rd. 2
Rondina: Torres is basically a tailor-made matchup for Jedrzejczyk. At range, the former champion is going to smack her smaller foe with leg kicks and jabs. Up close, she'll slice her up with elbows in the clinch. I'd be somewhat surprised if Torres even took a round off Joanna here, never mind actually winning.
Jedrzejczyk, unanimous decision
Ryder: This seems like a wildly tall task for the Tiny Tornado. Jedrzejczyk has lost a couple to Rose Namajunas, but there can't really be any doubt she's still the best second-best strawweight alive and might still be the best on any given night. Every part of Torres' game is predicated on doing something Jedrzejczyk has been overcoming for years, and that's not changing in Calgary. Expect a vintage performance from Joanna (Former) Champion.
Jedrzejczyk, unanimous decision
Jose Aldo vs. Jeremy Stephens
3 of 4
Harris: Has anyone of Aldo's caliber fallen off the map so quickly? It would be nice to see his back-to-back losses to Max Holloway become more a function of Holloway's greatness than any shortcoming of Aldo's, even if the Brazilian has shown a lack of "marketability" and so forth over the years.
In any case, Stephens is a brawler of the highest esteem, but he won't be able to penetrate Aldo's defense.
Aldo, unanimous decision
McCarter: This makes me sad to say, but Aldo is a shell of his former self. He is washed, as the kids say these days. Stephens is not. He is a hard-hitting featherweight killer who will be able to connect on Aldo. You'll probably begin to hear calls for the South American to hang 'em up after Stephens scores a big knockout victory in the co-main event.
Stephens, KO, Rd. 1
Rondina: This comes down to whether you think Aldo is spent or not. If you don't, Stephens is basically a perfect stylistic matchup for him. If you do, Stephens' improved striking should carry him to a win.
I fall into the former category. As such, I'm expecting Aldo to work his jab and comfortably outpoint Stephens en route to a handy decision win.
Aldo, unanimous decision
Ryder: Similarly to Jedrzejczyk, many have been suggesting Aldo is shot because he's lost some fights. The issue is that the Brazilian's losses are to a combat sports icon in Conor McGregor, and the best young featherweight since Aldo himself is Max Holloway.
Stephens is a one-dimensional slugger who has ascended mostly on sheer force of will, but it's hard to imagine him beating any version of Aldo.
Aldo, unanimous decision
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Eddie Alvarez vs. Dustin Poirier
4 of 4
Harris: This is for the "King of Violence" championship. Poirier is well-rounded and fearless, but I think he'll flash his jiu-jitsu after some extended slugfests. Can we finally give Poirier his title shot? Please?
Poirier, submission, Rd. 2
McCarter: This was a fun go the first time around, and it'll be a fun go the second time.
Ultimately, I like Poirier's athletic ability more in this matchup. His length will also play a vital role in keeping Alvarez on the outside to avoid damage. When Poirier connects cleanly, he'll rock Alvarez. And this time he will be a bit more patient to pick his shots and earn the finish.
After a long time of being on the brink of true title contention, Poirier breaks through on Saturday.
Poirier, TKO, Rd. 2
Rondina: I feel like Alvarez is the better overall fighter here, but Poirier has a clear edge in power striking. While Alvarez will likely out-wrestle or out-savvy Poirier for chunks of the fight, the Diamond should be able to crack him enough to keep him from ever gaining serious momentum. The damage will add up across a five-round fight and should equal either a late stoppage or a solid decision win.
Poirier, TKO, Rd. 4
Ryder: It's the strangest thing: To my mind, Alvarez is a better fighter than Poirier, but something about Poirier's approach seems to give Alvarez fits. It feels like an inevitability that Poirier hurts Alvarez relatively early with a big punch and doesn't let up until he stops the Underground King.
Poirier, TKO, Rd. 1
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