Buy or Sell for Every Team at 2018 MLB Trade Deadline
It's getting closer to crunch time on the summer trade market for the 2018 Major League Baseball season. What should each team do?
Ahead are judgments for whether each of MLB's 30 teams should buy or sell ahead of the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. Because at a time when baseball is split into haves who must go for it now and have-nots who must prepare for later, it's hard to advise anyone to stand pat.
We'll go in alphabetical order by city.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Buy
1 of 30
The Arizona Diamondbacks are nursing a half-game lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West. And with only one star under contract past 2020, their championship clock is ticking.
Arizona certainly fits the mold of a deadline buyer in these ways.
And while the D-backs are healthier now than they've been all year after the recent returns of A.J. Pollock, Robbie Ray, Shelby Miller and Steven Souza Jr. off the disabled list, they still have needs up and down their roster.
As their interest in Manny Machado (per Jon Morosi of MLB Network) goes to show, the D-backs understand they could use an impact bat for their up-and-down offense. It also wouldn't hurt to add rotation depth or a power arm for a bullpen that's struggled to rack up strikeouts.
All told, Arizona has no reason not to buy.
Verdict: Buy
Atlanta Braves: Buy
2 of 30
The Atlanta Braves are arguably way ahead of schedule with their rebuild, so perhaps they should count themselves lucky to be in the National League East race and hold off on doing anything drastic.
But in a year in which the National League doesn't have a superteam, the Braves will have as good a chance as anyone of going far in the postseason if they can get there. The safest way is via an NL East crown that's within reach.
Achieving that is a matter of holding off the Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals. For this, the least the Braves need is a bat for an offense that's been declining since a hot start and an arm for a bullpen that's run into tough times over the last month.
Besides, the Braves have more prospects than they need in their deep farm system. They can afford to trade a few.
Verdict: Buy
Baltimore Orioles: Sell
3 of 30
The Baltimore Orioles are 41 games under .500, and they're sitting on a farm system that was our 23rd-ranked system going into spring training.
That's a seller if there ever was one. At the least, the Orioles must seek to cash in pending free agents such as Zach Britton, Adam Jones, Brad Brach and, of course, Manny Machado.
Since the first three haven't done much to boost their value in 2018, it's imperative the Orioles get a haul for Machado. The fact that they have seven offers, according to Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun, bodes well in that regard.
And yet, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wondered how reasonable Baltimore ownership will be when it comes to weighing offers. It's imperative for rational heads to prevail so refusing to trade Machado can't come back to haunt the franchise.
Verdict: Sell
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Boston Red Sox: Buy
4 of 30
Maybe the Boston Red Sox should stand pat.
After all, they already lead MLB with 63 wins. And of their 70 remaining games, 40 will be at Fenway Park and none will be on the West Coast. All this will make it that much easier to win the American League East.
The real trick, however, is getting to the World Series. The Red Sox will have to go through the New York Yankees and/or Houston Astros to get there. Since both teams are likely to join the Red Sox in the 100-win club, that task will require as much firepower as the Red Sox can muster.
The Red Sox could use an upgrade for a catcher's spot with minus-0.2 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. They could also use a reliever or two for a bullpen that features a less-than-trustworthy bridge to Craig Kimbrel.
Besides, the Yankees and Astros probably aren't going to stand pat. Why should the Red Sox?
Verdict: Buy
Chicago Cubs: Buy
5 of 30
To hear it from president of baseball operations Theo Epstein, the Chicago Cubs aren't about to go wild at the trade deadline.
"I don't necessarily think this is the year we'll be out front beating the market," he said, per Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune. "But I think industry-wide there's going to be a lot of activity before the deadline."
The Cubs have underperformed in the win column in 2018, but hope is contained within their massive run differential. They can also look forward to improving from within once Kris Bryant and Yu Darvish come off the DL.
However, the Cubs will be pushing their luck if they get too complacent.
They have a tough National League Central opponent to overcome in the Milwaukee Brewers. For that, the least they can do is upgrade over Tyler Chatwood, who has a 5.01 ERA and nearly as many walks (70) as strikeouts (74), in the No. 5 spot in their rotation.
Verdict: Buy
Chicago White Sox: Sell
6 of 30
The Chicago White Sox lurched into a rebuild when they traded Chris Sale and Adam Eaton in the 2016-17 offseason. They then forged ahead by trading Jose Quintana last July.
Since they don't have anything to show for all the effort yet, they clearly need more work.
The White Sox don't have many trade chips left, but they have a couple. James Shields has rediscovered his value with his recent performance. Jose Abreu is a slugging first baseman who would fit well on a few contenders. Ditto Joakim Soria for contenders' bullpens.
There's also Avisail Garcia. After a slow, injury-marred start to 2018, the 27-year-old has since been hitting more like he did in his All-Star 2017 campaign. And he's no rental, as his club control isn't up until after 2019.
In all, trades of any of these guys would give Chicago's rebuild a needed kick-start.
Verdict: Sell
Cincinnati Reds: Sell
7 of 30
The Cincinnati Reds have been much more competitive under Jim Riggleman (37-36) than they were under Bryan Price (3-15).
Nonetheless, they remain in the thick of a rebuild. Rather than read too much into their rise to respectability, the smart play would be to angle for more young talent on the trade market.
The boldest thing they can do is trade ace closer Raisel Iglesias, who's under contract through 2020. They can also look to capitalize on Scooter Gennett's value and try to find a taker for Billy Hamilton. Both are under team control through 2019.
At the least, the Reds must cash in Matt Harvey. Nothing was guaranteed with the former New York Mets ace when he came aboard in May, but he's regained some velocity and turned back into a solid starter. The Reds must look to rent his final two months before free agency.
Verdict: Sell
Cleveland Indians: Buy
8 of 30
The Cleveland Indians don't need to worry about locking up a third straight American League Central title. They have an 8.5-game lead and no natural predators within the division.
Getting back to the World Series, though. That's another matter.
The Indians aren't on the same level as the Red Sox, Yankees or Astros when it comes to overall quality. Even record-wise, they're worse than the Seattle Mariners and no better than the Oakland Athletics.
Cleveland needs to ponder making serious upgrades. Thus, it has the right idea in putting an offer out for Machado, per Encina. And while the Indians bullpen has been better lately, its 5.13 ERA doesn't mislead about how badly it needs help.
If Cleveland merely coasts through the deadline, there's no way the World Series will return to Ohio.
Verdict: Buy
Colorado Rockies: Buy
9 of 30
Just when the Colorado Rockies seemed to be on their way out of it, now they're back in it following eight wins in their last 10 games.
Their offense has recovered from a slow April, and their bullpen is recovering from a brutal June with a 1.89 ERA in July.
If it were only a wild-card spot within the Rockies' sights, the best play would be to hold off on trades and hedge their bets by relying on in-house options. But since the NL West lead is only 3.5 games away, the Rockies are free to pursue it with a wild-card berth as a safety net.
For this quest, the Rockies could either go all-in on pitching or bypass it altogether in favor of improving their lineup. They could target an impact bat or a wiz who could help their outfield defense.
Verdict: Buy
Detroit Tigers: Sell
10 of 30
The Detroit Tigers played well through the first two-and-a-half months of 2018, but a 4-16 record in their last 20 games has shined light on reality. They're just another rebuilder.
It's all but certain the Tigers will at least trade their pending free agents. That group includes Francisco Liriano and Jose Iglesias. Other key chips include Shane Greene and Leonys Martin.
The big question is if the Tigers want to go even further by dealing slugging right fielder Nicholas Castellanos and/or right-hander Michael Fulmer.
Both are under team control past 2018, so there's no pressure on Detroit to deal either. But Castellanos is only controlled through 2019, so now's as good a time as any to capitalize on his trade value. And while Fulmer's control runs through 2022, he could bring back a huge haul of much-needed prospects.
In any event, not doing anything at the deadline is not an option for the Tigers.
Verdict: Sell
Houston Astros: Buy
11 of 30
The Astros are just two wins short of the Red Sox for the MLB lead, and their plus-186 run differential is far and away the best in the majors.
In other words: Yeah, the defending champs are back at it again. And in calling up top prospect Kyle Tucker, they added a potential solution to their left field conundrum.
Nevertheless, the Astros can't afford to get complacent in the arms race between them, the Red Sox and the Yankees. If that's not clear enough in general, it certainly is in light of the 4-7 record they have against those two clubs.
Though the Astros don't have any obvious needs, a bullpen upgrade is arguably more of a necessity than a luxury. As Mark Feinsand of MLB.com outlined, the Astros could use either a power arm or a second left-hander to go with Tony Sipp.
Verdict: Buy
Kansas City Royals: Sell
12 of 30
The Kansas City Royals have already committed to selling.
It started when they traded Jon Jay to the Diamondbacks and continued when they dealt Kelvin Herrera to the Nationals. In so doing, they added some young talent to a farm system that ranked No. 30 for us going into spring training.
The Royals must not stop.
Their next move should be to trade their pending free agents, including Lucas Duda and Mike Moustakas, whose 2019 mutual option probably won't be picked up. They can also look to cash in Danny Duffy and Whit Merrifield. Though each is under wraps through at least 2021, neither is guaranteed to still be in his prime by the time the Royals are ready to win again.
In short, Kansas City is still only at the outset of what should be a lengthy rebuild.
Verdict: Sell
Los Angeles Angels: Sell
13 of 30
The Los Angeles Angels had a heck of an offseason, and it paid off for a while.
But now, not so much. They're just 9-17 since June 9, and they can't seem to go more than five minutes without adding players to the DL. In the meantime, the Astros, Mariners and A's have left them in the dust in the American League West race.
The Angels don't need to blow it up and launch a rebuild, but they must get a head start on retooling for 2019. That means shopping their pending free agents, including Garrett Richards, Ian Kinsler, Martin Maldonado, Jim Johnson and Chris Young.
None of them may be worth impact prospects in a trade, but the Angels may be able to snag some spare MLB parts or MLB-ready prospects. Either could help them get back on track next season.
Verdict: Sell
Los Angeles Dodgers: Buy
14 of 30
Just when it seemed safe to count the Dodgers out in the NL West race, they've ripped off 33 wins in 48 games to climb right back within striking distance.
Moreover, the Dodgers are only getting healthier and deeper with each passing day. That puts them in the same boat as the Diamondbacks in that they may be good enough to just stick with what they have.
However, these are the Dodgers we're talking about. They're not out to win the NL West. They're out to win that elusive World Series title. For that, there's little question they need more.
According to Encina, they've made the most appealing offer for Machado. Per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, they're also aggressively pursuing Fulmer.
These reports are indicative of the charmed position the Dodgers are in. They don't need to get better. But with deep pockets and a reservoir of young talent to pull from, they can and should.
Verdict: Buy
Miami Marlins: Sell
15 of 30
The Miami Marlins have played like a team that's fresh off trading Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna and Dee Gordon in the offseason.
That is to say, not well. They're 27 games under .500, and they've allowed 117 more runs than they've scored.
In the meantime, the Marlins have their farm system to worry about. It got shockingly few upgrades amid the fire sale, and it doesn't look any better now than it did then. That's no small concern for a team that's supposed to be laying a foundation to contend.
So, nobody should be off the table in the coming weeks. Now is an excellent time to capitalize on J.T. Realmuto's surging value. Justin Bour and Starlin Castro also have value, and any of the Marlins' relievers should fetch a decent price on the trade market.
Verdict: Sell
Milwaukee Brewers: Buy
16 of 30
The Brewers have played 91 games in 2018, and 52 of those days have ended with them in sole possession of first place in the NL Central.
Milwaukee can't afford to not lean into its position by buying at the deadline.
For one thing, there's the aforementioned reality that the Cubs have upside beyond their record. For another, the Brewers aren't without their flaws. Their most obvious need is for a top-of-the-rotation starter. They could also use another bat and reinforcements for a bullpen that's been beatable of late.
According to Rosenthal, the Brewers are among the "most serious" suitors to land Machado. Rosenthal has also reported the Brewers are in on Merrifield. Per Feinsand, they could also be a fit for Toronto Blue Jays left-hander J.A. Happ.
In addition to the motivation, Milwaukee also has the farm system to make deals such as these. It must go for it.
Verdict: Buy
Minnesota Twins: Sell
17 of 30
Following a strong offseason, the Minnesota Twins looked like a good bet to make a second straight postseason in 2018.
Alas, it's not panning out. Even after a four-game winning streak, the Twins are still far behind in the AL Central race and even further behind in the AL wild-card race.
Like the Angels, the Twins don't need to go into a full rebuild. They merely need to retool by swapping their pending free agents for players who might help them in 2019.
According to Morosi, the Twins are open to doing just that. And they have plenty to offer, including Eduardo Escobar, Brian Dozier, Lance Lynn, Zach Duke and maybe even ol' standby Joe Mauer if he's willing to waive his no-trade clause. They could also deal players with options for 2019, such as Logan Morrison and Fernando Rodney.
If the Twins play their cards right, it shouldn't be long before they're back on their feet.
Verdict: Sell
New York Mets: Sell
18 of 30
It's been one calamity after another for the Mets since their 11-1 start to 2018, but they're not ready to pursue the nuclear option.
"I don't think we're looking at a two- or three-year thing," assistant general manager John Ricco told reporters (including Laura Albanese of Newsday).
This doesn't mean the Mets should hang up when teams call about staff aces Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard. If somebody is willing to pay a king's ransom for one of them, they'd be fools to not consider saying yes.
But in general, Ricco has the right idea.
The Mets only need to retool, so their focus should be on dealing guys like Jeurys Familia, Asdrubal Cabrera and Jerry Blevins before they reach free agency. If at all possible, they must also see if they can move Jay Bruce in a bad contract swap.
Verdict: Sell
New York Yankees: Buy
19 of 30
Remember when the Yankees started 9-9?
Well, they're 50-21 since then. And they've slain plenty of dragons along the way, as their 34-16 record against winning teams is the best in MLB.
Still, it's no secret the Yankees aren't about to leave good enough alone. They need stability in their rotation beyond Luis Severino and CC Sabathia, and the rumor mill has linked them to all sorts of potential fixes.
For now, Happ may be the most practical solution. According to ESPN.com's Buster Olney, the Yankees and Blue Jays are "haggling" over the price for the veteran lefty.
There are better solutions than Happ for the Yankees to pursue, however. According to Jim Bowden of The Athletic, they include deGrom and Syndergaard as well as Chris Archer and Blake Snell of the Tampa Bay Rays. Just sayin': The latter is just the guy for the Yankees.
Verdict: Buy
Oakland Athletics: Buy
20 of 30
Now is not the time for anyone to sleep on the A's. That includes the A's themselves.
They entered the year as a merely interesting team, but they've recently begun to realize their potential with a 17-4 record over their last 21 games. Their offense has driven the bus with 5.5 runs per game, helping to bring the A's within six games of the American League's second wild-card spot.
If Oakland is going to see this thing through, however, it needs pitching. Apart from a few standouts (e.g., Sean Manaea, Blake Treinen and Lou Trivino), its staff is a mixed bag that's had trouble getting into a groove.
The A's aren't in a position to blow up their farm system with blockbuster deals. They should, however, pursue affordable upside plays. To name a few: Harvey, Tyson Ross and Nathan Eovaldi could be fits.
Verdict: Buy
Philadelphia Phillies: Buy
21 of 30
The Phillies don't just share the NL East lead with the Braves. They also share a similar outlook for the trade deadline.
The Phillies are arguably ahead of schedule with a rebuild and thus need to be careful about mortgaging their future. But since the NL is wide-open, they might as well go hard after an NL East title and see what comes next.
The Phillies also arguably have more needs than the Braves.
They need at least one impact bat for an offense that's struggled to get hot, hence their interest, per Encina, in Machado. They could also use depth in both their rotation and their bullpen. Per Jon Heyman of Fancred, a reunion with Cole Hamels is a possibility for the former.
One thing that can only help the Phillies is their financial situation. Whereas many contenders have the luxury tax to worry about, they're nowhere near the $197 million threshold.
Verdict: Buy
Pittsburgh Pirates: Sell
22 of 30
The Pittsburgh Pirates looked like a surprise contender once upon a time, but their 16-31 record since May 17 has nixed that.
"The optimism has turned to realism," GM Neal Huntington said Sunday, according to Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic.
The silver lining for the Pirates is that they're another team that doesn't need to launch a rebuild. They're already built upon a foundation of young talent, and there's more where that came from in their farm system.
Still, it would be in the Pirates' style to deal veterans who are nearing the end of their contracts. Among the players on that list who could be of interest to contenders are Corey Dickerson, Francisco Cervelli, David Freese and Ivan Nova. They're all controlled through 2019.
If said interest is indeed there, the Pirates must take advantage of it.
Verdict: Sell
San Diego Padres: Sell
23 of 30
The San Diego Padres roster is a mix of young guys and veterans who are signed to long-term contracts. Ergo, there aren't many trade chips to be found.
And yet, San Diego's 39-54 record is as strong an indication as any that more work is needed to get the team to where it wants to be. So, some selling is in order.
At the least, there's a trio of pending free agents: Ross, Freddy Galvis and A.J. Ellis. Then there are the guys set to hit the market after the 2019 season, such as Craig Stammen and Clayton Richard.
There's also Brad Hand. The Padres have the two-time All-Star closer locked up through 2021, so there's no rush to move him. But his contract is also an excuse to attach a big price to him. And given the widespread demand for relievers, somebody might be willing to pay it.
Verdict: Sell
San Francisco Giants: Buy
24 of 30
The San Francisco Giants are in a tight spot.
Even after dumping Austin Jackson and Cory Gearrin on the Texas Rangers, the luxury tax remains a hazard. Jorge L. Ortiz of USA Today noted the Giants were "thought" to be barely under the $197 million threshold before Sunday's deal.
Meanwhile, San Francisco doesn't have much to offer from a decimated farm system. And one of its best players (Steven Duggar) is needed at AT&T Park. Chris Shaw and Tyler Beede may also be needed before long.
And yet, the Giants are very much in the NL West race. If they can, they need to use the trade deadline to load up for the stretch run.
It won't be easy. But with enough creativity, the Giants may at least be able to find a reliable starter for a rotation that could use some stability after Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto.
Verdict: Buy
Seattle Mariners: Buy
25 of 30
Coming into the year, there may have only been one AL playoff spot that was realistically up for grabs. By going 33-15 since May 17, the Mariners seemed to have grabbed it.
Or have they?
The A's have been closing in on the Mariners, and that may continue if the M's get too cocky about their winning formula. They are where they are because they've gone 26-11 in one-run games. An impressive feat, to be sure, but perhaps not one made to last.
The Mariners must barricade against bad luck by stocking up on arms. Above all, they need a proper co-ace for James Paxton. Per Morosi, a reunion with Happ is one possibility. Also per Morosi, a deal with the Rangers for Hamels is another.
Alternatively, the Mariners could bypass their rotation and augment their offense. It has hit something of a wall in July.
Verdict: Buy
St. Louis Cardinals: Buy
26 of 30
The St. Louis Cardinals appear to be crumbling.
On the field, they're mired in a 10-15 stretch that's dropped them seven games out of first in the NL Central. Off the field, they look like the bad guys in a public feud with veteran outfielder Dexter Fowler.
But then there are the reasons for the Cardinals to keep going. They have key players due back from injuries, and only four games separate them from the NL's second wild card.
The Cardinals could do with an upgrade for an offense that's struggled to find its footing throughout 2018, be it someone as big as Machado or as modest as Moustakas.
Even more in need of help is their bullpen. It's shown signs of life recently, but it's off to a rough start with a 5.24 ERA in July. Some of that traces back to Greg Holland, who's gone back to looking like a lost cause in his last three outings.
Verdict: Buy
Tampa Bay Rays: Sell
27 of 30
In any other season, the Rays' 46-44 record would be an excuse for them to stick around for the rest of the AL wild-card hunt.
In this season, however, that ship has sailed. That's Tampa Bay's cue to keep dealing even after having already traded Alex Colome, Denard Span and Brad Miller.
First up is two-time All-Star catcher Wilson Ramos, who should fetch a good price on the trade market despite being a rental. The same goes for Eovaldi, who's quietly been a revelation in his return from Tommy John surgery.
The Rays may be content to stop there, yet they can't hang up on any teams that call about Archer or Snell. There's no rush to deal either of the two aces, but trading one or both would be a hell of a way for Tampa Bay to fill a reservoir of young talent it can never afford to neglect.
Verdict: Sell
Texas Rangers: Sell
28 of 30
The question isn't whether the Rangers should sell. It's how far they should take it.
The franchise made five postseasons from 2010 to 2016, but the last two years have brought increasingly diminishing returns. The Rangers must at least retool. Given the degree to which the rest of the AL West has passed them by, they arguably need to rebuild.
In any event, Texas must field offers for Adrian Beltre, Bartolo Colon, Jake Diekman and Jesse Chavez, each of whom stands to become a free agent this offseason. Hamels also fits into that category, as it's unlikely any club will pick up his $20 million option for 2019.
If the Rangers want to break up the band, their list of trade chips extends to Jurickson Profar, Elvis Andrus, Joey Gallo and Nomar Mazara. They probably don't want to go that far, but turning their backs on good offers for those guys would be foolish.
Verdict: Sell
Toronto Blue Jays: Sell
29 of 30
The Blue Jays have been recovering from a brutal stretch from late April to early June, but it's too little, too late. The AL East and AL wild-card races are beyond them.
Toronto doesn't need to tear its roster apart, but it does need to be open for business where its pending free agents are concerned. Happ is the biggest prize of the bunch, followed by Curtis Granderson and Marco Estrada.
Josh Donaldson should be numero uno on that list, but the 2015 AL MVP's value has been destroyed by injuries and ineffectiveness. Toronto may not be able to move him until the August waiver period, if at all.
So, the Blue Jays may be open to making up the difference by trading one of their controllable stars. To that end, there could be interest in Justin Smoak, Kevin Pillar and Aaron Sanchez.
Verdict: Sell
Washington Nationals: Buy
30 of 30
In light of how poorly they've played recently and how disappointing they've been overall, it's tempting to wonder if the Nationals might put Bryce Harper on the market.
But, let's not kid ourselves.
Washington isn't the kind of team that's going to shrug its shoulders and pivot to 2019. As it has been since 2012, it's a World Series-or-bust team. And because the Nats are only 5.5 games out in the NL East, they're not a bust yet.
Still, Washington can't just be patient and wait for things to get better. It's already traded for Herrera. According to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, a reunion with Ramos could be next. Per Heyman, it may also have Harvey and Iglesias on their radar.
There's no upgrade the Nationals can make that wouldn't help. They just need to make them.
Verdict: Buy
Stats accurate through Sunday and courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs. Payroll data courtesy of Cot's Baseball Contracts.
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