NBA Rookie Award Predictions for 2018-19 Season
The 2018 NBA draft class is loaded with potential stars, steal candidates and personalities. And after 2017, the bar is set high.
NBA readiness is an obvious key when making projections, but team fit also plays a major role. Some rookies are better positioned than others to contribute earlier based on their rosters.
From Rookie of the Year and surprise contributor to the most legitimate predraft riser, we created awards for what should be an entertaining group.
2019 NBA Rookie of the Year: Deandre Ayton (Phoenix Suns, C)
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The Rookie of the Year vote should be between the top three picks from the 2018 draft. We'll take No. 1.
Entering the league with spectacular tools, an inside-out skill set, elite college numbers and a starting role, Deandre Ayton is the favorite.
With Alex Len on the way out, Ayton could be looking at 30-plus minutes a game as the Suns' No. 2 option behind Devin Booker. He'll score and rebound more than Luka Doncic, and with far more strength and length, Ayton should shoot a higher percentage than Marvin Bagley III, who also isn't as sharp as a one-on-one shot-creator.
While Booker cooks from the perimeter, Phoenix will use Ayton in the post, where he ranked in the 90th percentile as a scorer and 89th percentile as a passer. Throw in the easy baskets (71.5 percent at the rim), offensive putbacks (93rd percentile) and occasional jump shots (39 made), and Ayton should be a threat to average 15 to 20 points and lead all rookies.
Top Distributor: Trae Young (Atlanta Hawks, PG)
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Trae Young could have trouble creating separation as a scorer, but his passing and vision will carry over, particularly in a more uptempo game with shooters around him.
After leading the country in assists, Young will battle it out for top rookie distributor with Los Angeles Clippers guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Only Dennis Schroder could hold back Young. But even if Atlanta keeps Schroder, Young's transition play and ability to change speed, penetrate through defenses and set the table should still translate to assists off screens and drives.
It wouldn't come as a surprise if the Hawks wound up dealing Schroder and giving more control to Young, which would help him lock up the rookie assist title.
Rebound King: Deandre Ayton (Phoenix Suns, C)
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Ayton, Bagley and Wendell Carter Jr. will battle for the rebounding title. The edge goes to Ayton, who'll receive full-time minutes without having to worry about another Phoenix Sun stealing boards.
They'll play a lot of small-ball 4 this year after acquiring Trevor Ariza. He'll slide next to Ayton up front, and after drafting Mikal Bridges, Josh Jackson and TJ Warren could also see minutes at power forward.
Playing mostly the 4 at Arizona, Ayton registered a monster 21.4 rebounding percentage, thanks to his tremendous mix of size, strength and length.
Bagley could wind up losing rebounds to Willie Cauley-Stein and Harry Giles III, while Carter's immediate role remains unclear with Lauri Markkanen and Robin Lopez penciled in as starters.
Top Rookie Sharpshooter: Kevin Huerter (Atlanta Hawks, SG/SF)
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No rookie's shooting stroke is more convincing than Kevin Huerter's, even if there are others, like Mikal Bridges, who registered higher three-point percentages in college.
Mechanics, shot preparation and a quick release point to Huerter emerging as the class' most successful marksman, both in terms of makes per game and efficiency. He does an excellent job of getting his feet set and rising straight up and down, whether he's spotting up or shooting off movement curl around a screen.
And with dual playmakers in Schroder and Young to penetrate and dish, Huerter should see more open looks than he saw at Maryland, where he really had to work for his shots.
He gives the Hawks an immediate offensive upgrade on the opposite wing from Taurean Prince, and it won't be long before the No. 19 pick is drawing starts for Atlanta.
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Jaren Jackson Jr. (Memphis Grizzlies, PF/C)
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Rim protection and switchability will propel Jaren Jackson Jr. atop our defensive rookie rankings.
He could foul out more than any other first-year player. But it will be tough for even Mohamed Bamba to match Jackson's impact.
It's also unclear how large of a role Bamba plays next season in a lineup with Nikola Vucevic and Jonathan Isaac. Next to Marc Gasol, Jackson should be able to play power forward and show off his versatility as a big man who can block shots and guard around the perimeter.
Jackson's 14.3 percent block rate was actually higher than Bamba's 13.1 percent, as well as Joel Embiid's 11.7 percent at Kansas. Among current NBA starters, only Hassan Whiteside's 18.8 percent was higher among players in their final year of college.
Along with a 7'5 ¼" wingspan, Jackson has unique timing and instincts, as well as the lateral foot speed to defend in space and fly over from the weak side.
Biggest Second-Round Steal: Mitchell Robinson (New York Knicks, C)
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With Mitchell Robinson, the New York Knicks landed a first-round talent at No. 36.
The fall was caused by uncertainty—the former top-10 recruit skipped college and the NBA combine, presumably making it difficult for teams to have confidence in handing him a guaranteed contract.
But for a team like the Knicks, the potential reward with Robinson was worth the risk, particularly in the second round. And we suspect the gamble pays off.
At 7'1", 225 pounds, he's one of the top athletes from the draft, capable of being a monster around the rim at both ends of the floor.
If he can handle the media and bright lights, Robinson otherwise has a suitable environment for development. Kristaps Porzingis is out, and Kyle O'Quinn and Michael Beasley are likely gone. Robinson should have the opportunity to play—and play through mistakes for a young team with no expectations.
Impact Rookie in the Playoffs: Donte DiVincenzo (Milwaukee Bucks, SG)
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The Milwaukee Bucks increased their win total in three consecutive seasons, and with the East weakening and Giannis Antetokounmpo getting stronger, this is a team that looks poised to advance in the playoffs.
Look for Donte DiVincenzo to play a role and steal minutes from Tony Snell.
The NCAA tournament's breakout star flew up boards and wound up landing in a fitting situation. DiVincenzo can play to his strengths in Milwaukee, where the Bucks will value his shooting, pesky defense and ability to make athletic plays off the ball between Eric Bledsoe and Khris Middleton.
He'll add more liveliness and positive energy compared to Snell and Malcolm Brogdon. Between his motor and potential to catch fire and score in bunches, DiVincenzo's game is ultimately suited for Milwaukee's sixth-man role. And with the Bucks likely losing Jabari Parker, they could use another jolt off the bench.
Legitimate Predraft Riser: Jerome Robinson (Los Angeles Clippers, SG)
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It wasn't often Jerome Robinson was mentioned with the other lottery prospects during the season. His predraft rise happened abruptly.
But it was deserved, just as Donovan Mitchell's was in spring 2017. And like Mitchell did, Robinson should validate the jump up boards to No. 13 overall.
He averaged 24.3 points during ACC conference play, burying defenses with the ability to score on and off the ball, having ranked in the 94th percentile as a pick-and-roll ball-handler and 84th percentile out of spot-ups. He shot a scorching 44.5 percent off the dribble, a skill that will bode well for him in the NBA.
He'll have to earn the coaches' trust early on, with Lou Williams and Avery Bradley higher on the depth chart. But look for Robinson to gradually build a case for more playing time later in the season. He and Gilgeous-Alexander represent the future in L.A.'s backcourt.
Surprise Rookie Contributor: Chandler Hutchison (Chicago Bulls, SF)
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Call this the Kyle Kuzma award. It goes to the player who comes out of nowhere and threatens for an All-Rookie team spot.
Chandler Hutchison should have a major opportunity in Chicago, where the Bulls could use an offensive upgrade at small forward.
He's coming off a 20.0 PPG season after improving his jump shot, which had always held him back.
With a strong mix of 6'7" size, athleticism and footwork, Hutchison excels at getting downhill and finishing around the basket. His attacking prowess suggests he's the right fit between perimeter-oriented scorers Lauri Markkanen and restricted free agent Zach LaVine.
Look for Hutchison to make his first pitch for regular-season playing time during summer league and soon threaten for a spot in Chicago's starting lineup.
Stats courtesy of Synergy Sports and Sports-Reference.com
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