Gator Bait: Why the Florida State Seminoles Could Upset the Florida Gators

TAMPA, Fla.—Five years. Five years of being the whipping post for the Florida Gators.

This year may just be a bit of the same, but before we throw in the towel on the Seminoles' season, I'm going to give you a comment about as big as anyone might have difficulty swallowing. Florida State can beat UF in November.

Now I know what you're thinking...

"This guy's off his meds! There's NO WAY Florida State could even hang with the best team in the country, let alone beat them. It's Spikes and Tebow's Senior Day, and FSU's not even a .500 team! Dude, quit drinking the Kool-Aid, one game against a mediocre UNC offense will be nothing like playing Florida in Gainesville."

Well I'm glad we agree on that much. For the record—no, I'm not crazy, and no I'm not trying to convince anyone that FSU is as complete of a team as the "school to the East."

No, sir, you'll get no argument from me that UF is a much better team than UNC. This is not a euphoric hangover from last night's comeback win over the Tar Heels either.

When it comes to the FSU-UF game, for this year, FSU simply has shown they have something this year that they have lacked for the last five years in the consecutive and miserable beat downs at the hands of the Gators.

Offense.

In order to understand what I mean, I need you to follow me with some stats here. Heading into last night's contest, FSU's opponents held a combined record of 35 wins and 10 losses (.778 win pct.)—with not one team having more than two losses.

I did some more homework. This is good enough for the best opponent winning percentage in the country.

So 3-4 is bad. So FSU's Secondary is a mess. So FSU won't compete for a National Title. Did you honestly think they would anyways? Neither did any of us.

With a moderately small shot to still recapture the ACC Atlantic (with all of the crazy little tie-breaker scenarios, and FSU needing a little help, it is still feasible), the focus for FSU now has been on winning, wherever, whenever possible.

Florida is a good program. But they are beatable. They have one man who has become acclimated to winning on that offense, and that is something you cannot take away from him. Everyone knows his name.

Yeah. Him.

A few stats to digest:

Opponent's Combined Record heading into Week Eight—30 wins 10 losses. (.750)

Average Defensive Rank of Opponent—35 th . (Best Rank—3rd, Worst Rank—78 th )

Total Passing Yards—2,176 . Touchdowns—12 , Interceptions—1 . 

Completion Percentage—67.7% . Passer Rating—155.9 .

Not bad, right?

Unless you're an avid FSU follower, you probably didn't notice...but these are not Tim Tebow's stats.

They belong to the guy at the "School to the West." Christian Ponder.

Florida State just defeated the third-best defense in the country on Thursday night behind the one bright spot in a murky season for FSU. 

Even T-shirts are being promoted on Facebook that say "Don't squander Ponder." 

Florida State's pass attack is driving teams crazy, and if they didn't sport the 109th ranked defense in the land, they may be undefeated right now. Did I mention they have the fourth toughest schedule in the country?

FSU right now may look bad on paper, but if they can manage to keep the momentum of a big win over a very good UNC defense, and win out, a 7-4 team heading into the Swamp will likely see off long-time Defensive Coordinator Mickey Andrews, along with most of his staff. 

Florida State will likely hear reminders of "Bobby Bowden Field Dedication Night"—a night when Ron Zook was the one doing all the christening on his way out the door.

Heck, if the Gators can send the Zooker out a winner, in a very emotional game, I think Bobby's boys will come out to play. 30+ years of history would say it's a near certainty.

Sure, Tim Tebow won't be too busy celebrating his last game in the Swamp against one of the most porous defenses in the land, to realize the FSU game is still a rivalry, but if I can trick all of you with the stats about our little known QB in Tallahassee, maybe he will underestimate the points the guy on the other end of the field might force him to answer with.

So, if the magic is just right this 2009 Thanksgiving weekend, Florida State might be able to send Bobby Bowden out a winner. After all, he is 17-17-1 against Florida, and if he doesn't come back after this season, like many pundits think...

Well Florida, good luck.