2018 NBA Mock Draft: Pro Comparisons and Predictions for Elite Guard Prospects

There's a strange-but-true link between evaluating both NBA draft prospects and musicians.

All are highly specialized at their craft, to the point you'll never find two who are perfect clones. Yet, there's usually another prospect or artist close enough to draw similarities and find comparisons.

Saying, "If you like Nas, you'll dig Dave East" isn't all that different from going, "If you miss Patrick Ewing, get ready for Deandre Ayton." They aren't mirror images, but you can see the resemblance.

After going through an updated first-round mock, we'll find rough-sketch NBA models for this draft class' top three backcourt prospects.

2018 NBA Mock Draft

1. Phoenix Suns: Deandre Ayton, C, Arizona

2. Sacramento Kings: Luka Doncic, SG, Slovenia

3. Atlanta Hawks: Jaren Jackson Jr., C, Michigan State

4. Memphis Grizzlies: Marvin Bagley III, PF/C, Duke

5. Dallas Mavericks: Mohamed Bamba, C, Texas

6. Orlando Magic: Michael Porter Jr., SF/PF, Missouri

7. Chicago Bulls: Wendell Carter, C, Duke

8. Cleveland Cavaliers (via Nets): Trae Young, PG, Oklahoma

9. New York Knicks: Mikal Bridges, SF, Villanova

10. Philadelphia 76ers: Miles Bridges, SF/PF, Michigan State

11. Charlotte Hornets: Collin Sexton, PG, Alabama

12. Los Angeles Clippers (via Pistons): Kevin Knox, SF, Kentucky

13. Los Angeles Clippers: Robert Williams, C, Texas A&M

14. Denver Nuggets: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, PG, Kentucky

15. Washington Wizards: Lonnie Walker IV, SG, Miami

16. Phoenix Suns (via Heat): Zhaire Smith, SF, Texas Tech

17. Milwaukee Bucks: Aaron Holiday, PG, UCLA

18. San Antonio Spurs: Jontay Porter, C, Missouri

19. Atlanta Hawks (via Timberwolves): Anfernee Simons, PG/SG, IMG Academy

20. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Thunder): Khyri Thomas, SG, Creighton

21. Utah Jazz: Chandler Hutchison, SF, Boise State

22. Chicago Bulls (via Pelicans): Dzanan Musa, SG/SF, Bosnia & Herzegovina

23. Indiana Pacers: Keita Bates-Diop, SF/PF, Ohio State

24. Portland Trail Blazers: Troy Brown, SF, Oregon

25. Los Angeles Lakers (via Cavs): Mitchell Robinson, C, USA

26. Philadelphia 76ers: Jacob Evans, SG/SF, Cincinnati

27. Boston Celtics: De'Anthony Melton, SG, USC

28. Golden State Warriors: Gary Trent Jr., SG, Duke

29. Brooklyn Nets (via Raptors): Kevin Huerter, SG, Maryland

30. Atlanta Hawks (via Rockets): Melvin Frazier, SF, Tulane

Comparisons, Predictions for Elite Guard Prospects

Luka Doncic, SG, Slovenia

AFP Contributor/Getty Images

There's a growing belief among NBA executives that Luka Doncic isn't a lock for the top two and could be passed over by Sacramento and Atlanta if he's not taken No. 1, per ESPN's Jonathan Givony.

We're still predicting Doncic's supreme skills won't let him slide past second. The 19-year-old recently became the youngest MVP and Final Four MVP of the EuroLeague.

Doncic isn't the easiest player to play the comparison game with; there aren't many players his age and size (6'8") with his instincts, creativity and feel for the game.

When Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman looked at the teenager in October, he saw shades of Manu Ginobili. When Doncic sees Ben Simmons, he sees similarities with his game, he told Mina Kimes for ESPN The Magazine. When I see him, I see a jumbo-sized mashup of Ricky Rubio and Goran Dragic.

Doncic has the look of a shooter, but the percentages aren't there yet (30.9 percent from three this season). It's hard to tell if he'll supplement a club's playmaking or serve as the primary distributor. He shines more with his skills than his physical gifts.

He's no Simmons, but the shades of Ginobili, Rubio and Dragic are all present. Considering Ginobili is a future Hall of Famer, Dragic has been an All-Star and Rubio is a top-20 all-time performer in assists and steals, these are more favorable comparisons than casual fans might think.

Trae Young, PG, Oklahoma

Remember when Trae Young's draft stock appeared to be falling as fast as his Sooners were? It seems like most (or all) has been forgiven for the struggles of him (38.6 field-goal percentage, 31.1 three-point percentage, 5.7 turnovers his final 16 games) and his team (4-12 in those contests) in the second half.

In fact, slotting him at No. 8 is probably on the low end of what you'll find recently. Half of the 10 mock drafts tracked by NBA.com have him going sixth. But we'll say Orlando's need for scoring leads it to Porter instead of Young, while Chicago sees Carter offering similar upside while filling a greater void.

So, congrats Cleveland—Young is all yours.

What exactly are you getting? Well, someone who counts LeBron James among his fans, for starters. The 19-year-old is also a history-maker having used his only season of college hoops to become its first player to lead the country in points (27.4) and assists (8.7).

More pertinent to this article, though, Young bears the markings of some of basketball's most electric lead guards. High-end comps include Stephen Curry and Steve Nash, Young's favorite player. Wasserman called a Jason Williams-Isaiah Thomas combo "more realistic in terms of projecting ceilings."

That would make for a pretty interesting floor-general Frankenstein. Thomas was a top-three scorer at his peak, and the forever-flashy Williams had three seasons as a top-eight table-setter.

Collin Sexton, PG, Alabama

David Sherman/Getty Images

The Hornets have question marks—many of which are overpriced—at every position other than point guard. That's where Kemba Walker resides, offering one of the Association's best bargains as a two-time All-Star making a relatively meager $12 million.

So, why in the world is Collin Sexton bound for Charlotte? Because Walker, a free-agent-to-be in 2019, is too valuable not to move as part of an overdue overhaul.

The Hornets clearly need to get younger and cheaper, and essentially every road to that point involves a Walker deal. The good news is if he goes, Sexton is ready and waiting as a wildly intriguing replacement.

During his one-and-done campaign, he helped Alabama snap a five-year NCAA tournament drought by pacing the club in points (19.2) and assists (3.6) and posting an impressive 23.5 player efficiency rating. Walker, for reference, averaged 14.6 points and 5.1 assists with a 20.2 PER as a sophomore—his first season as a full-time starter at UConn.

That's not to say Sexton is the next Walker. The 19-year-old has more size and explosiveness with less skills (for now, at least).

Sexton is a scoring guard with a not-always-there jumper. The fact he barely averaged more assists than turnovers (2.8) is worrisome, even if modern offenses aren't strictly triggered by point guards. The fact he erupted for 25-plus points eight different times suggests his point-producing potential is through the roof.

So what does that make him? His lack of playmaking made one scout question "whether he's just Rodney Stuckey," per Wasserman. Others see his athleticism and two-way energy and see the next John Wall:

The middle ground, then, paints Sexton as an Eric Bledsoe type. That isn't great, but it can be really good. Before this up-and-down campaign, Bledsoe had gone two consecutive seasons with at least 20 points, six assists and four rebounds.

The Hornets would gladly take those numbers if they could get them outside of the top 10.

Statistics used courtesy of Sports-Reference.com and Basketball-Reference.com.