Preakness 2018 Odds: Horses to Avoid and Safest Jockeys to Bet This Year
When choosing the right horses to bet on for Saturday's Preakness Stakes, there are plenty of factors to take into account.
Of course, the easiest of those factors to look at is the recent form of the horses in the field, which in the case of the Preakness, leans you toward selecting Justify to win.
If you dig deeper into the teams surrounding each of the eight horses, you'll find a collection of experienced jockeys that could make a difference as they try to navigate through the sloppy track at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore.
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With that in mind, we took a look at some of the horses to avoid based on form and a pair of jockeys worth throwing money behind.
Odds (via OddsShark)
Justify (-225; Bet $225 to win $100)
Good Magic (+325; Bet $100 to win $325)
Quip (+1400)
Bravazo (+1800)
Diamond King (+2000)
Lone Sailor (+2000)
Tenfold (+3300)
Sporting Chance (+4000)
Horses To Avoid
Sporting Chance
There's good reason why Sporting Chance has the worst odds entering Saturday's race.
Currently sitting at plus-4000, Sporting Chance is trying to improve on two third-place finishes, a fourth and a fifth in his last four races.
In his biggest tests to prepare for the Preakness, Sporting Chance ended up fifth at the Rebel Stakes and third at the Blue Grass Stakes behind Good Magic and Flameaway.
In a field where horses are coming off multiple victories in the same stretch, Sporting Chance deserves to be the longshot of the eight competitors.
While there's always a chance the unpredictable could happen on a sloppy track, it's hard to make the case for Sporting Chance to even finish in the top four.
Lone Sailor
Lone Sailor also comes into the Preakness with a mixed bag of results that don't inspire confidence.
The best finish this year for the eighth-place horse at the Kentucky Derby came at the Louisiana Derby, where he took second behind Noble Indy.
At plus-2000, Lone Sailor is less of a longshot than Sporting Chance, and since he already ran on a muddy track at Churchill Downs two weeks ago, he should be able to deal with the conditions at Pimlico.
If you're looking for a horse to fill in the back end of a superfecta bet, Lone Sailor could be an intriguing option since the collection of three-year-olds behind favorites Justify and Good Magic isn't impressive by any stretch of the imagination.
However, Lone Sailor is still a horse to avoid since he hasn't produced a stretch of strong finishes, and how he'll perform at the Preakness is a bit too unpredictable to gauge.
Safest Jockeys To Bet On
Mike Smith
Justify has one of the best jockeys in the field riding him, which is yet another reason to throw full confidence behind the Triple Crown candidate.
Mike Smith guided Justify to the front of the pack at the Kentucky Derby, and with similar conditions expected at the Preakness, the same strategy should be employed.
The 52-year-old American has visited the winner's circle at plenty of major races, and he has five victories in Triple Crown races.
Although his only first-place finish at the Preakness came in 1993, Smith reeled off a pair of Belmont Stakes wins in 2010 and 2013, as well as the Kentucky Derby victory two weeks ago.
In addition to Smith's personal success, trainer Bob Baffert has won the Preakness Stakes with each of his Kentucky Derby winners, which sets the stage for Justify to follow in the footsteps of horses like American Pharoah.
Victor Espinoza
If you're looking for a horse with long odds to surprise the field, Tenfold might be the one to do it with veteran jockey Victor Espinoza on board.
The 45-year-old won the Triple Crown with American Pharoah in 2015, and he took the first two legs of the Triple Crown with California Chrome in 2014.
In the same year he captured the Triple Crown, Espinoza won the Breeders Cup Classic with American Pharoah to complete the sweep of the major prize races in American horse racing.
Although Tenfold isn't as talented as American Pharoah, Espinoza carries plenty of experience to guide the underdog to the winner's circle.
Given the lack of impressive horses throughout the field, it's worth taking a shot on a jockey like Espinoza when choosing your trifecta and superfecta bets.
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90
Statistics obtained from Horseracingnation.com
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