2018 NBA Mock Draft: 1st-Round Predictions and Biggest Boom-or-Bust Prospects

The NBA draft is a boom-or-bust proposition. Some of the surest things wind up being awful as pros; some of the biggest projects end up becoming the biggest stars.

But some players have a higher bust potential than others. The pendulum of the worst-case scenario versus the best-case scenario is so great that selecting them comes with an inherent risk that could make or break careers.

Here's a look at a few of those players following the lottery. 

Boom-Or-Bust Prospects

Mohamed Bamba, C, Texas

Bamba is a legit 7-footer with a 7'10" wingspan. He is the Roy Hibbert blocking children gif of adult human beings. His mere presence, provided he puts on enough bulk to take on NBA contact, should make him one of the NBA's best rim protectors. 

"I'd say my biggest strength right now, just one word to summarize it all, is just my presence," Bamba told reporters at the combine. "Both offensively and defensively, the presence that I have is pretty profound. I don't think any other prospect has this presence.

"I do more but require less. That's both on the court and off the court. I feel I'm the most efficient guy in this draft class."

Bamba also said he's worked on reshaping his outside shot, which he used but not effectively at Texas. He knocked down 27.5 percent of his threes in college; that's not going to cut it at the next level. Joel Embiid is a flawed three-point shooter who probably takes too many for a guy his size, but he's still a career 32.7 percent shooter from distance.

If Bamba can get to around the 33-percent mark and uses his length and athleticism to protect the rim, he could be the franchise center a team like the Mavericks have desperately craved. 

Trae Young, PG, Oklahoma

It doesn't really feel like we live in a world where Trae Young can be "just fine," does it? He spent the early part of his collegiate career being compared to Steph Curry and the latter part having his shot selection torn apart. 

Young at his worst is an inefficient gunner and bad defender who messes up possessions on both ends of the floor. When defenses started to key on him, sometimes he would attempt mind-numbing shots. When they'd go in, he's brilliant; when he'd miss it was tough to watch. 

On the more positive side, Young's a sensational passer. Oklahoma didn't surround him with much talent; there were times he was doing it himself because he had to. Perhaps with more talent surrounding him, Young will settle himself and become a nightly double-double threat who is his most efficient self.

With the expectations of his collegiate stardom weighing on him, though, the pressure is going to be high. 

Mitchell Robinson, C, N/A

From a talent standpoint, Robinson is a lottery pick. He's a huge 7-footer with wow-level athleticism and elite shot-blocking instincts. 

There are plenty of questions about Robinson leading into the draft. He committed to Western Kentucky  then left the school under odd circumstances without ever playing a game. When NBA teams were finally going to get a look at him at the combine, Robinson pulled out at the last minute.

All we really have is year-old game tape of him dominating at the high-school level—and dominate he did. Robinson averaged 20.9 points, 13.6 rebounds and 8.1 blocks per game as a senior and has everything you need to be an elite rim-running center in the modern NBA. He's a bit of a black hole once he gets his hands on the ball, but throwing him in a Clint Capela/DeAndre Jordan role has real potential until he becomes more of an actual basketball player.

1. Phoenix Suns: Deandre Ayton, C, Arizona              

2. Sacramento Kings: Luka Doncic, PG/SG, Slovenia               

3. Atlanta Hawks: Marvin Bagley III, PF/C, Duke

4. Memphis Grizzlies: Jaren Jackson Jr., PF/C, Michigan State               

5. Dallas Mavericks: Mohamed Bamba, C, Texas                

6. Orlando Magic: Wendell Carter, PF/C, Duke                    

7. Chicago Bulls: Michael Porter Jr., SF/PF, Missouri                 

8. Cleveland Cavaliers (via Nets): Collin Sexton, PG, Alabama                

9. New York Knicks: Mikal Bridges, SF, Villanova            

10. Philadelphia 76ers (via Lakers): Miles Bridges, SF/PF, Michigan State               

11. Charlotte Hornets: Trae Young, PG, Oklahoma               

12. Los Angeles Clippers (via Pistons): Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, PG, Kentucky                

13. Los Angeles Clippers: Robert Williams, C, Texas A&M               

14. Denver Nuggets: Kevin Knox, SF/PF, Kentucky                

15. Washington Wizards: Jontay Porter, C, Missouri                  

16. Phoenix Suns (via Heat): Lonnie Walker, SG, Miami

17. Milwaukee Bucks: Anfernee Simons, PG/SG, IMG Academy               

18. San Antonio Spurs: Zhaire Smith, SF, Texas Tech                 

19. Atlanta Hawks (via Timberwolves): Aaron Holiday, PG, UCLA                   

20. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Thunder): Keita Bates-Diop, SF, Ohio State                   

21. Utah Jazz: Chandler Hutchison, SF, Boise State                   

22. Chicago Bulls (via Pelicans): Troy Brown Jr., SG/SF, Oregon

23. Indiana Pacers: Jalen Brunson, PG, Villanova

24. Portland Trail Blazers: Dzanan Musa, SG/SF, Bosnia & Herzegovina               

25. Los Angeles Lakers (via Cavs): Mitchell Robinson, C, N/A               

26. Philadelphia 76ers: Jacob Evans, SG/SF, Cincinnati                 

27. Boston Celtics: Brandon McCoy, C, UNLV               

28. Golden State Warriors: Khyri Thomas, SG, Creighton               

29. Brooklyn Nets (via Raptors): De'Anthony Melton, PG/SG, USC         

30. Atlanta Hawks (via Rockets): Donte DiVincenzo, SG, Villanova