2018 NBA Draft Lottery: Full Odds and Teams with Most at Stake

Steve Silverman@@profootballboyFeatured ColumnistMay 14, 2018

Since the Suns had the NBA's worst record, they have the best chance of winning the NBA lottery.
Since the Suns had the NBA's worst record, they have the best chance of winning the NBA lottery.Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

The Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Houston Rockets and defending champion Golden State Warriors are still alive and playing to win the 2017-18 NBA championship.

The other 26 teams in the league are looking forward to the 2018-19 season and making plans for how to improve.

The first thing on the agenda for most teams is the upcoming NBA draft, and the precursor to that is the league's draft lottery.

The event takes place at the Palmer House Hilton in Chicago on Tuesday, and it will be televised by ESPN at 7:30 p.m. ET. The lottery will also be live-streamed on WatchESPN.

Here's a look at the odds for the 13 teams (the Los Angeles Clippers are very likely to have two selections) in the lottery:

            

2018 NBA Lottery Odds

1. Phoenix Suns: Top-three pick: 64.2 percent; No. 1 pick: 25.0 percent

2. Memphis Grizzlies: Top-three pick: 55.8 percent; No. 1 pick: 19.9 percent

3. Dallas Mavericks: Top-three pick: 42.5 percent; No. 1 pick: 13.8 percent

4. Atlanta Hawks: Top-three pick: 42.4 percent; No. 1 pick: 13.7 percent

5. Orlando Magic: Top-three pick: 29.1 percent; No. 1 pick: 8.8 percent

6. Chicago Bulls: Top-three pick: 18.3 percent; No. 1 pick: 5.3 percent

7. Sacramento Kings: Top-three pick: 18.3 percent; No. 1 pick: 5.3 percent

8. Cleveland Cavaliers (via Nets): Top-three pick: 10.0 percent; No. 1 pick: 2.8 percent

9. New York Knicks: Top-three pick: 6.1 percent; No. 1 pick: 1.7 percent

10. Philadelphia 76ers or Boston Celtics (via Lakers): Top-three pick: 4.0 percent; No. 1 pick: 1.1 percent

11. Charlotte Hornets: Top-three pick: 2.9 percent;  No. 1 pick: 0.8 percent

12. Los Angeles Clippers (via Pistons if outside top four): Top-three pick: 2.5 percent; No. 1 pick: 0.7 percent

13. Los Angeles Clippers: Top-three pick: 2.2 percent; No. 1 pick: 0.6 percent

14. Denver Nuggets: Top-three pick: 1.8 percent; No. 1 pick: 0.5 percent

         

DeAndre Ayton looks like a sure-fire No. 1 draft pick.
DeAndre Ayton looks like a sure-fire No. 1 draft pick.Ted S. Warren/Associated Press

A case can be made that every team in the lottery has its future at stake. The Suns, Grizzlies, Mavericks and Hawks, though, have the best chance of coming away with the No. 1 pick, and those four teams have the most to gain...and lose.

The Suns have a 25 percent choice of securing the No. 1 pick. If this 21-61 team emerges as the winner in the lottery, it has a chance to make a major upgrade on the roster.

The Suns would not have to go far to draft center Deandre Ayton of Arizona, who averaged 20.1 points and 11.6 rebounds per game for the Wildcats last year.

Ayton is 7'0", 243 pounds and one of the most physically gifted players in the draft, and he demonstrated a high level of play in his one season of playing college basketball.

While he did not play well in Arizona's NCAA appearance, it is clear he can have an impact on both ends of the court. He also plays aggressive defense without fouling, as he averaged just 2.3 fouls per game.

Ayton has an excellent touch with his jump shot, can play with his back to the basket and passes the ball well off the double-team.

Adding Ayton would give the Suns an anchor to build around for the next two to three seasons and provide some much-needed direction.

The Grizzlies were in the race for the worst record all season and were one game better (or worse, depending on your perspective) than the Suns at 22-60.

The Grizzlies need help in a lot of areas, and the backcourt is a key need. While they may have an even bigger need at shooting guard, they could upgrade their prospects significantly with Slovenian point guard Luka Doncic.

Doncic has great size for the position at 6'8" and 228 pounds and sensational ball skills. He helped Real Madrid get to the Euroleague final four. The Grizzlies want to get back to playoff contention as soon as possible, and Doncic would fit with the talent on the team already.

He should be able to play well with Tyreke Evans (19.4 points per game), Marc Gasol (17.2 PPG) and Dillon Brooks (11.0 PPG).

The Mavericks (24-58) have an excellent chance of coming away with the third pick, although the Atlanta Hawks have nearly the same odds.

This team could prove to be the ultimate winner of the draft because it could lead to the selection of Duke big man Marvin Bagley III. The power forward/center can dominate on the offensive end because of his power and skills.

Bagley checks in at 6'11" and 234 pounds, and he averaged 21.0 points and 11.1 rebounds as a freshman for the Blue Devils this season. Bagley will need quite a bit of work on defense to allow his coaches to feel comfortable with him on the court in all situations, but there is no reason to doubt him from an offensive perspective.

The Hawks (24-58) should also be in the top four if the lottery works out according to the predicted form, and they could also be looking at a big man.

With the assumption Bagley will be off the board, they could go for Michigan State's Jaren Jackson Jr. or Texas center Mohamed Bamba. Of the two, Bamba was the more celebrated prospect coming out of high school, and he is a defensive wizard and a shot-blocking machine.

Bamba, 7'0" and 207 pounds, has rare length because of his tremendous wingspan. He averaged 12.9 points while shooting 54.1 percent from the field and took down 10.5 boards per night. He blocked 111 shots in 30 games and influenced many more shooters to alter their deliveries.

Jackson has a high ceiling and looks like he could develop into a star who dominates on both ends of the floor. He averaged 10.9 points and connected on 51.3 percent of his shots while grabbing 5.8 rebounds. It may take Jackson a little longer to reach his ceiling, but it is very high.

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