MLB Trade Deadline: Predicting the Biggest Names Who'll Be Up for Grabs
MLB's July 31 non-waiver trade deadline is more than two months away. Will that stop us from speculating on the biggest names who might be available?
No, it won't.
There's obviously guesswork involved. Hot streaks and cold spells could drastically shift the balance of buyers and sellers, just as injuries and slumps could affect which players will change hands.
But based on the current standings and latest rumors, the following eight impact guys may swap uniforms before the calendar flips to August.
J.T. Realmuto, C, Miami Marlins
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The Miami Marlins jettisoned their entire 2017 starting outfield and speedy second baseman Dee Gordon over the winter. There's a neon "for sale" sign hanging outside Marlins Park.
Catcher J.T. Realmuto could be the next to go. He stated his desire to be traded in December, per MLB Network's Ken Rosenthal.
After missing time early with a back injury, the 27-year-old is hitting .302 with a .892 OPS in 22 games and has thrown out 40 percent of would-be base stealers. He won't be eligible for arbitration until 2019 and won't hit free agency until 2021.
Backstops like that don't float on the market every summer. The Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels and New York Mets top the list of contenders who could use an upgrade behind the dish.
The Fish should deal Realmuto, as they figure to reel in a hefty return.
Kelvin Herrera, RHP, Kansas City Royals
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At 13-27, the Kansas City Royals sit in fourth place in the American League Central. Their 2015 championship already seems like a distant memory.
Right-handed reliever Kelvin Herrera, a key piece of that title team, is doing his part with a 0.61 ERA, 14 strikeouts and no walks in 14.2 innings. The 28-year-old has also converted eight of his nine save opportunities.
A two-time All-Star and impending free agent, Herrera would be a sought-after gunslinger if the Royals keep losing and opt to shop him. He might be the best bullpen arm available at the deadline.
The Washington Nationals, who rank 20th in baseball with a 4.41 bullpen ERA, could target him as they seek to make a deep postseason run in Bryce Harper's possible D.C. swan song. He'd join Washington closer Sean Doolittle to form the type of late-inning tandem that can buzz through October.
The Nats wouldn't be the only club to place a call on Herrera, or K.C.'s other tradable assets. Speaking of which...
Mike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas City Royals
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Third baseman Mike Moustakas withered on the free-agent vine this winter before re-upping with the Royals for one year and $6.5 million with a mutual option for 2019. It was an absurdly low payday for a player who clubbed 38 home runs and earned his second career All-Star nod in 2017.
So far, the 29-year-old is humbling the doubters with a .296 average, 10 home runs and a .329 on-base percentage. That last figure matters because it's 23 points above Moose's career OBP.
Assuming the Royals initiate a rebuild, Moustakas should be among the top names they shop. However, there aren't many prospective buyers with a glaring need at the hot corner at the moment.
"They'd still have to find a contending team that needs a third baseman," an unnamed rival general manager told Jon Heyman of the FRS Network.
Injuries, however, could change that in a hurry. Moustakas' pop would also play well for an American League team searching for a boost at designated hitter.
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Cole Hamels, LHP, Texas Rangers
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After posting a 4.20 ERA in 2017—his worst mark since 2009—Cole Hamels is galloping back with the Texas Rangers.
The 34-year-old left-hander has struck out 57 in 51.2 innings across nine starts with a 3.48 ERA. A four-time All-Star, Hamels has a $20 million team option and $6 million buyout for 2019.
At 16-26, the Rangers are in last place in the AL West. In addition to his 2018 rebound, Hamels owns a 3.48 ERA in 98.1 postseason frames.
A pitching-hungry contender such as the Chicago Cubs might be willing to part with a legitimate prospect or two to secure his seasoned services. A reunion with the Philadelphia Phillies is also an intriguing possibility, as Heyman opined.
Jose Abreu, 1B, Chicago White Sox
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Jose Abreu wants to remain with the Chicago White Sox for the duration of his playing days.
"I hope with God's will I can finish my career here," the slugging Cuban first baseman said through an interpreter, per MLB.com's Scott Merkin. "I hope I can stay here for as long as I can as a baseball player."
Abreu is hitting .284 with seven home runs, one season after he clubbed 33 homers and posted a .906 OPS.
The 31-year-old is under club control through 2019, so Chicago is under no obligation to trade him now. Heyman cited the Colorado Rockies as a potential destination, yet he quoted an unnamed source as saying "the White Sox would have to be blown away" by any offer.
Abreu could remain on the South Side. But the rebuilding, last-place ChiSox will undoubtedly pick up the phone.
Michael Fulmer, RHP, Detroit Tigers
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At 17-22, the Detroit Tigers are only three games out of first place in the ho-hum AL Central. The Tigers are also rebuilding, so they should listen to offers for any of their star players.
That includes right-hander Michael Fulmer.
The AL Rookie of the Year in 2016 and an All-Star in 2017, the 25-year-old sports a 4.37 ERA this season. Still, he's shown flashes of his rotation-fronting upside. His 3.92 xFIP suggests a degree of bad luck.
Considering he's under club control through 2022, the Tigers should demand a king's ransom.
As Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press noted, "A pitcher of his caliber will net the Tigers multiple top prospects and perhaps, a potential crown jewel of a farm system."
Would a team such as the Cubs or New York Yankees pay the price this summer? Possibly.
Chris Archer, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
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The small-market Tampa Bay Rays are 16-22, 11 games back in the AL East. Calls for a sell-off will soon echo from Tropicana Field.
The top name inevitably will be Chris Archer.
The 29-year-old righty has been the subject of trade speculation before. He's a two-time All-Star who's locked into an affordable contract that could run through 2021 with a pair of team options.
So far this season, he totes an eyebrow-raising 5.64 ERA. On the other hand, he's struck out 52 batters in 52.2 innings, and his 3.86 xFIP indicates some misfortune.
The aforementioned Cubbies are a possible fit if ostensible stars Yu Darvish and Jose Quintana continue to struggle, but Archer would interest any team with designs on contending.
Every year, it's worth wondering whether he'll remain in Tampa Bay. This year is no different.
Manny Machado, SS, Baltimore Orioles
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The Baltimore Orioles didn't trade Manny Machado this winter. Instead, they converted their franchise third baseman into a shortstop and chose to make one more run before he hits free agency.
So far, the O's are 13-28 and fading fast in the AL East. That means Machado could be the hottest commodity on the deadline market and the most game-changing rental in recent memory.
A three-time All-Star and three-time top-10 AL MVP finisher, Machado is hitting .350 with 13 home runs and a 1.100 OPS in 41 games. The 25-year-old is playing like a man on a contract-year mission.
The most obvious suitor is the Los Angeles Dodgers, who lost shortstop Corey Seager to Tommy John surgery and are attempting to hoist their first Commissioner's Trophy since 1988. Add the Mets, St. Louis Cardinals, Milwaukee Brewers and Cubs to the list, too.
Unless Baltimore flutters into the playoff picture soon, some contender figures to enjoy a fleeting, exciting summer of Machado.
All statistics and contract information current as of Monday and courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball Reference.
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