UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington Fight Card, TV Info, Predictions and More
Amanda Nunes' takeover of the women's bantamweight division will face a new challenge at UFC 224 when she takes on Raquel Pennington in the main event.
Nunes has become the woman to beat in the division. Since defeating Miesha Tate for the title in July 2016, she's beaten Ronda Rousey and Valentina Shevchenko to claim top billing in a division that has never been known for its depth.
Now, the Brazilian will look to extend that title defense streak to three in front of a Rio de Janeiro crowd that should be cheering on The Lioness.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
It's a fitting headliner for a card that has a serious Brazilian presence and should provide some meaningful fights in the other divisions represented. It's not going to break any sales records, but it should be a fun night of fights.
Here's a look at the complete card with odds and TV info.
Note: All odds via OddsShark.
Main Card (10 p.m. ET, PPV)
- Amanda Nunes (c) (-1000) vs. Raquel Pennington (+600)
- Kelvin Gastelum (+120) vs. Ronaldo Souza (-145)
- Amanda Cooper (+195) vs. Mackenzie Dern (-250)
- John Lineker (-250) vs. Brian Kelleher (+195)
- Vitor Belfort (+200) vs. Lyoto Machida (-260)
Preliminary Card (8 p.m. ET, FX)
- Cezar Ferreira (-105) vs. Karl Roberson (-125)
- Junior Albini (-155) vs. Alexey Oleynik (+125)
- Nick Hein (+110) vs. Davi Ramos (-140)
- Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (-135) vs. Sean Strickland (+105)
Preliminary Card (6 p.m. ET, UFC Fight Pass)
- Warlley Alves (-230) vs. Sultan Aliev (+180)
- Jack Hermansson (-155) vs. Thales Leites (+125)
- Ramazan Emeev (-200) vs. Alberto Mina (+160)
- James Bochnovic (+250) vs. Markus Perez (-325)
Predictions
Nunes Finishes Pennington
All things considered, this fight was made more out of the necessity for Nunes to defend her title than any palpable buzz for this fight. The champion needed a bout, and Pennington happens to be the one who has the best resume for a shot at this point.
Holly Holm is ranked No. 1, and she's 1-4 in her last five fights. She's also coming off a loss to Cris Cyborg. The rest of the division can't compete with Pennington's four-fight win streak, even if it's one that has come against questionable competition.
Pennington's best performance to date comes against a Miesha Tate who has since retired, and the other three fighters she's beaten (Elizabeth Phillips, Bethe Correia and Jessica Andrade) are a cut below contender status.
There are still question marks in Nunes' game. She's only gone the distance in fights against Shevchenko in the UFC and lost her only other fight that made it out of the first round.
There's a scenario where Pennington is able to draw early aggression from the champion, ride out the storm and come back to win the fight in the later rounds, but that's not something you want to depend on. Nunes hits like a truck and could flatten the challenger in the process.
Nunes is playing the game on a higher difficulty right now,and Pennington will be fortunate to survive the first two minutes. The Lioness' athletic advantage should be apparent.
Prediction: Nunes via first-round TKO
Jacare Ties Up Gastelum
Kelvin Gastelum has made a habit out of finishing aging fighters.
From Michael Bisping to Vitor Belfort to Johnny Hendricks to Nate Marquardt he's made a habit of being the grim reaper to old folks careers. Even though Jacare Souza comes into this bout at 38 years old, it feels different.
For one, Souza has only lost to Robert Whittaker and Yoel Romero in the past three years. Those two will fight with the title on the line next month so Jacare still hasn't hit the "losing to people that aren't championship caliber" phase of his career yet.
Then there's the fact that he's a stylistic nightmare for the former welterweight. Gastelum showed some serious weaknesses when faced with a strong grappler when he lost to Chris Weidman via arm-triangle in the third round.
Souza isn't going to be any easier to handle on the ground.
There's the chance that Gastelum is going to stun the former Strikeforce star early in the fight. He has power in his hands, and Souza's chin might betray him at this point in his career.
He's already hinted he'll be hunting for that early knockout.
"I feel like I need to beat him and make a statement," Gastelum said, per Matt Erickson and Fernanda Prates of MMAjunkie. "If I don’t make a statement, I don’t think I’ll be able to contend for the title next. But if I go in there and knock him out in the first round, then I have no doubt that the next fight will be for the title."
That's a strategy that could backfire as he may want to proceed with caution when he engages with Jacare lest he finds himself in the submission artists grasp to be taken down and submitted.
Prediction: Jacare via second-round submission
Mackenzie Dern Submits Amanda Cooper Despite Weight Struggles
Mackenzie Dern has star potential in the UFC, but this weekend has already cast a shadow of doubt over that.
The 25-year-old missed weight by eight pounds, weighing in at 123 for the 115-pound fight. It's probably not going to hurt the jiu-jitsu ace at this point. As Mike Bohn of MMAjunkie noted, the five fighters who have fought after missing weight this year are 5-0, but it demonstrates that Dern's work ethic might not be that of a future superstar in this sport.
Jonathan Snowden of Bleacher Report gave his impressions of Dern's habits in his encounters with her:
Dern's star appeal is easy to see. She's got the look and resume in competitive grappling to make a splash, but she's going to have to figure out how badly she wants to make this career work.
For now, the UFC's booking will keep her afloat. Amanda Cooper's record is 3-3 with all three losses coming by way of submission.
It's not hard to see the way this fight is "supposed" to go, and the weight difference should only work as an advantage in the grappling department which is where this fight will likely take place.
Dern should do what she's expected to do this time around, but the approach isn't a good sign for what's to come.
Prediction: Dern via first-round submission
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
