UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington Odds, TV Info, Predictions and Pre-Weigh-In Hype
UFC 224 comes to Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, with a card anchored by Brazilian women's featherweight champion Amanda Nunes defending her belt against Raquel Pennington as the main event.
Since prying away the belt from Miesha Tate with a rear-naked choke UFC 200 The Lioness has defended her belt against Ronda Rousey and Valentina Shevchenko. Now she's looking to make Pennington the third fighter to unsuccessfully challenge her title.
The card also features an important middleweight bout between two contenders. Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza will look to build his case for another fight against Robert Whittaker with a win over Kelvin Gastelum who will make his first Octagon appearance in 2018 after finishing 2017 by knocking out Michael Bisping.
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Overall, it's not the strongest card the UFC has ever turned out, but it's an intriguing mix of Brazilian talent, young and old looking to make an impact in their respective divisions.
Here's a look at the complete card, with odds for each fight, TV info and a closer look at the hype surrounding the biggest fights on the card.
Note: All odds via OddsShark.
Main Card (10 p.m. ET, PPV)
- Amanda Nunes (c) (-900) vs. Raquel Pennington (+650)
- Kelvin Gastelum (+120) vs. Ronaldo Souza (-150)
- Amanda Cooper (+195) vs. Mackenzie Dern (-250)
- John Lineker (-250) vs. Brian Kelleher (+195)
- Vitor Belfort (+200) vs. Lyoto Machida (-260)
Preliminary Card (8 p.m. ET, FX)
- Cezar Ferreira (+120) vs. Karl Roberson (-150)
- Junior Albini (-155) vs. Alexey Oleynik (+125)
- Nick Hein (+110) vs. Davi Ramos (-140)
- Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (-135) vs. Sean Strickland (+105)
Preliminary Card (6 p.m. ET, UFC Fight Pass)
Amanda Nunes Already Knows Raquel Pennington's Game
It's no secret that Amanda Nunes and Raquel Pennington aren't bitter rivals. They aren't selling this as a rivalry, but they will put aside those friendly ties for a title fight in which Rocky is hoping to do what others haven't been able to and capture the title.
Still, Nunes feels like the friendship will be put on hold when they enter the cage, and she knows what Pennington's approach is going to be.
"Here we go, and now we step into the cage and do our work, and after we can be friends again," Nunes said, per Fernanda Prates and Steven Marrocco of MMAjunkie. "All the game plans she has in her mind, I know. Because I've been there before. I was a challenger. I was the underdog. I fought with somebody I had to pressure to get the fight done."
She knows that Pennington is going to look to turn the heat up against her and force the champion to fight a higher-paced fight than she'd like to.
Nunes has looked shaky getting outside of the first round in the past. However, her unanimous-decision win over Shevchenko last time out should inspire more confidence in that area.
Still, Pennington believes that she can outwork the champ and will bring a ruggedness to their fight that she hasn't seen before.
"I think that I'm a fighter that brings something that Amanda's never experienced," Pennington said, according to Fernanda Prates and Kevin Hathaway of MMAjunkie. "At the end of the day, Amanda has great striking, but I have better striking. I feel like I bring more of a brawling style, and I can take a punch. So she wants to sit here and give me one punch, and I’ll take one punch to give her three."
That's a bold strategy. Nunes is one of the most powerful strikers in any of the women's divisions and brawling with her just doesn't seem like a great idea.
Whether Pennington is able to weather the early storms and test the cardio of the champion will be an interesting subplot to watch unfold.
Prediction: Nunes via first-round TKO
Jacare Sees Kelvin Gastelum as Stepping Stone to the Title
With Nunes and Pennington being a somewhat lopsided matchup on paper, the middleweight fight between No. 2-ranked Jacare and No. 5 Kelvin Gastelum is the best fight on the card. The winner will have a case to be the one to take on the winner of UFC 225's fight between champion Robert Whittaker and Yoel Romero.
Souza believes this is Step 1 in a two-step plan to add the UFC title to his list of accomplishments.
"If you analyze it, there’s no better option," Souza said, per Guilherme Cruz of MMA Fighting. "Chris Weidman can't fight now; he's hurt. Kelvin Gastelum is here to fight, I’m here to fight, you know? Here’s what’s going to happen: in two fights I’ll become the UFC middleweight champion."
If that's the case, Souza will need to win impressively. He's only one fight removed from suffering a second-round TKO loss at the hands of Whittaker, with a first-round finish of Derek Brunson serving as his only palate cleanser at this point.
For Gastelum, he also took the fight as a means to an end. He wants to fight for the 185-pound strap and thought this was his quickest path when given the option.
"I've been to Chile, and it's nice, but I just think Rio's a little better," Gastelum said, per Steven Marrocco and Hathaway of MMAjunkie. "I laid out the options, and when I got offered the fights, I felt like this was a quicker route to get a title shot."
That might be true, but beating Souza is no small task. The 38-year-old has only lost to Whittaker and Romero in the last six years, getting the finish in seven of his eight victories in the Octagon.
Much like Pennington, Gastelum will look to drown his opponent in volume. He's a pressure fighter who is going to try to draw Souza into a fast-paced fight and hope that his cardio allows him to take over.
The problem for Gastelum is going fast often leads to mistakes and with a finisher like Souza across from him in the cage, that's going to lead to a crucial mistake. Look for Souza to counter Gastelum's aggression with takedowns and eventual submission attempts that will end the fight.
Souza's skill set is just too well-rounded for where Gastelum is at in his career.
Prediction: Souza via second-round submission
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