Kentucky Derby 2018 Odds: Predictions Based on Betting Lines for Top Contenders
When it comes to picking a horse to root for in the Kentucky Derby, it's not easy to select the favorite.
In the case of the 144th running of the Triple Crown's first leg, there are a few favorites to choose from, as the odds continue to fluctuate ahead of Saturday's race.
Justify and Mendelssohn contain the best odds at the moment, while a few others are working their way into the conversation.
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Predicting the race at Churchill Downs isn't an easy task given the collection of dominant horses, and you also have to throw in the unpredictability factor of sports when breaking down the race.
Kentucky Derby Odds (via OddsShark)
1. Firenze Fire (+6600)
2. Free Drop Billy (+3500)
3. Promises Fulfilled (+5000)
4. Flameaway (+4500)
5. Audible (+650)
6. Good Magic (+800)
7. Justify (+350)
8. Lone Sailor (+5000)
9. Hofburg (+1500)
10. My Boy Jack (+1800)
11. Bolt d'Oro (+850)
12. Enticed (+2500)
13. Bravazo (+6000)
14. Mendelssohn (+350)
15. Instilled Regard (+6000)
16. Magnum Moon (+750)
17. Solomini (+2200)
18. Vino Rosso (+1200)
19. Noble Indy (+3000)
20. Combatant (+6600)
Predictions
Justify Faces More Competition Than Expected
As the Kentucky Derby inches closer, more money is directed at favored horses other than Justify.
Justify still contains the lowest odds at +350 (bet $100 to $350), but he's been joined by Mendelssohn, while four other horses are +850 or lower.
The major difference between the two favorites is their starting positions, as Justify comes out of post No. 7, and Mendelssohn is on the outside in post No. 14.
The unfavorable post draw for Mendelssohn could set him back, especially if the field goes out fast, but a hot start could also hurt Justify if he isn't expecting it.
Audible, who starts two spots to the left of Justify, has the potential of moving to the front of the pack in the early stages of the race, as does Good Magic, who begins the race between Audible and Justify.
Although it's hard to call Bolt d'Oro an underdog at +850, he isn't getting talked about a ton, and he is capable of putting pressure on the favorites by surging into the top positions.
Magnum Moon is the other horse with odds better than +850, but he faces the biggest disadvantage of the favored horses, as he needs to make up ground from an outside start in post No. 16.
If Justify makes a single mistake over the 1 1/4-mile race, his closest competitors are going to be ready to capitalize.
With two rivals directly next to him from the start, Justify will feel the pressure, which means the race for the Kentucky Derby crown could come down to the final few strides.
Keep An Eye on My Boy Jack
My Boy Jack has gone from a betting underdog to a potential late favorite this week, as he sits at +1800.
The horse ridden by jockey Kent Desormeaux has an ideal starting position from post No. 10, but he's been a bit inconsistent in 2018.
My Boy Jack won the Southwest Stakes and Lexington Stakes but also possesses a pair of third-place finishes from the Sham Stakes and Louisiana Derby.
Given the mixed bag of results throughout his career, it's hard to gauge what My Boy Jack is going to do at Churchill Downs.
Normally when odds drop on a horse there's buzz surrounding him about a potential surprise win, but the mold doesn't fit with My Boy Jack.
The only argument you could make in favor of My Boy Jack entering Saturday is he carries plenty of experience with 10 starts.
If My Boy Jack runs a perfect race, he could contend for the top three, which makes him an intriguing pick for trifecta and superfecta bets, although that would still come as a surprise given the amount of stud horses in the field.
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.
Statistics obtained from KentuckyDerby.com.
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