NFL Rookies Who Will Make the Biggest Fantasy Impacts in 2018

It's May, so we can finally start thinking about fantasy football. With all the players drafted into the NFL last week, the landscape has changed. With that in mind, we'll be projecting some of the most impactful rookies for the 2018 season. 

As we all know, it's rare that rookie wide receivers break out, other than the historic 2014 draft class. With a deep running back group this year, we'll focus on players in high-upside situations who are possible starters in any league.

There are six rookie backs who should be uncontested starters, along with a possible trap selected in the first round and a sleeper you may not have heard of. These are the eight names you need to know ahead of your fantasy draft.

Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants

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From 2008 to 2017, only seven running backs were drafted in the top 10. Here is how their rookie seasons shook out:

• Leonard Fournette: 304 touches, 1,342 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns
• Christian McCaffrey: 197 touches, 1,086 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns
• Ezekiel Elliott: 354 touches, 1,994 yards from scrimmage and 16 touchdowns
• Todd Gurley: 250 touches, 1,294 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns
• Trent Richardson: 318 touches, 1,317 yards from scrimmage and 12 touchdowns
• C.J. Spiller: 98 touches, 440 yards from scrimmage and one touchdown
• Darren McFadden: 142 touches, 784 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns

Even if you don't think Saquon Barkley was worth the second overall pick, teams commit to playing top-10 selections. Top-10 backs have recently seen success from a fantasy perspective, and the New York Giants rookie should see 200-plus touches for 1,000-plus yards and around 10 touchdowns this season.

While the Giants lost key interior offensive linemen in free agency, including Justin Pugh and Weston Richburg—who signed deals north of $90 million combined—they drafted UTEP guard Will Hernandez in the second round.

Based on their actions this offseason, it's fair to say the new front office and coaching staff believe the Giants backfield, not the offensive line, was the reason New York was one of five teams to rush for 3.9 yards per carry or fewer in 2016 and 2017.

No matter if they are right, they invested in Barkley, and he should be seen as this class' top fantasy player.

Ronald Jones, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers general manager Jason Licht wants to fix his offense. Since 2014, he's only used three of his nine picks in the top 40 on defensive players while heavily investing on the offensive side of the ball.

His most recent offensive top-40 pick is former USC Trojans running back Ronald Jones II, who rushed for 3,619 yards and 39 touchdowns in his college career. He landed in a fairly favorable spot, as the team's top returning back is Peyton Barber, a 2016 undrafted free agent who had just 537 yards from scrimmage last year.

Jones should be a 16-game starter if healthy. Jacquizz Rodgers is the only other veteran back on the team besides Barber and is a third-down back, which would limit Jones' snaps on passing downs. Still, Rodgers isn't a major threat to start this year. He has only eclipsed 100 carries once in his seven-year career (129 in 2016.)

Projecting 200 touches might be a bit ambitious because both Rodgers and Barber may see the field in pass-catching situations, but Jones should be in that ballpark.

Derrius Guice, RB, Washington Redskins

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There was no team worse at running the ball last season than the Washington Redskins, according to Pro Football Reference's expected-points model. After LSU product Derrius Guice tumbled to the 59th overall pick after being projected as a late-first-round or early-second-round selection for over a year, Washington drafted him to remedy the situation in the nation's capital.

Guice and pass-catcher Chris Thompson appear to be a perfect combination. Thompson is an established backfield threat in the passing game, posting 1,126 yards receiving to just 878 yards rushing in his career. On the flip side, Guice caught just 32 balls at LSU, while he carried the ball 471 times.

Last year, the Tigers often took Guice off the field on passing downs for Darrel Williams, an undrafted back who caught 23 balls in 2017. Expect Thompson to still be the primary pass-catcher in Washington, but Guice will be the main ball-carrier. After Samaje Perine ran the ball 175 times as a part-time starter last year, it's safe to say Guice will get 200-plus carries.

Rashaad Penny, RB, Seattle Seahawks

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This can't be stated enough times: The Seattle Seahawks running backs had 17 carries for minus-11 yards and zero touchdowns last season inside the 10-yard line.

This offseason, they only added two mid-level additions on the offensive line, drafting Jamarco Jones in the fifth round and giving D.J. Fluker a one-year, $1.5 million deal in free agency. But the Seahawks finally have a lead back for the first time since Marshawn Lynch left the Pacific Northwest following the 2015 campaign.

After cycling through Chris Carson, J.D. McKissic, C.J. Prosise and Mike Davis last season, Seattle selected Rashaad Penny with the 27th overall pick, and he will be the guy for head coach Pete Carroll. Penny posted 459 touches and 39 touchdowns in his last two years at San Diego State, which should calm the nerves of Seahawks fans when he carries the ball inside the 10.

He produced those numbers in 27 games, and that included a 2016 campaign in which Penny split time in the backfield. Lynch is only back who received more than 400 touches under Carroll in Seattle (1,615 touches). Leon Washington is second on the list with 357.

If Carroll commits to Penny the way he did to Lynch, the Aztec product is going to be a 300-touch player. The number of role players on the depth chart should scale back those expectations, however.

Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns

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Pro Football Focus graded Carlos Hyde's 2017 season with the San Francisco 49ers as a 50.3 on a scale from 40 to 100. That's equal to Chris Ivory, who the Jacksonville Jaguars released this offseason. In terms of the veterans on Cleveland's roster, Hyde is the top runner, while Duke Johnson, who had 82 carries and 74 receptions last season, is the pass-catcher out of the backfield.

If Hyde was as poor as Pro Football Focus graded him, why can't Chubb unseat him as the team's top runner by September or midseason? After he posted 6.3 yards per carry in college and was drafted 35th overall, there's more room for optimism in a 22-year-old All-SEC back than a 27-year-old who wasn't re-signed by Kyle Shanahan, largely considered to be one of the brightest offensive minds in the sport.

From 2016 to 2017 on teams that went a combined 1-31, running back Isaiah Crowell had 404 carries as the team's primary runner. With a talented offensive line, the Browns should have one of the best ball-control offenses. Two-hundred carries is a fairly low goal for Cleveland's top runner, be it Hyde or Chubb.

With at least a baseline passer (Tyrod Taylor) finally on the roster, they could win about seven games, which could put them in more positions to run the ball and protect a lead. Taylor's dual-threat ability, a key to Buffalo's running game over the years, can also open up running lanes in Cleveland.

Kerryon Johnson, RB, Detroit Lions

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According to Pro Football Reference's expected-points model, the Detroit Lions had the second-worst running game in the NFL last season. Some of that was due to running back play. And some of that was due to holes in the offensive line, a few of which were caused by injuries.

Over the last three years, the Lions have added tackles Taylor Decker and Ricky Wagner along with interior offensive linemen Graham Glasgow, T.J. Lang and Frank Ragnow. They have yet to play together, but, on paper, they look like one of the best units in football.

This all bodes well for Kerryon Johnson, a running back who was drafted out of Auburn for the Lions with the 43rd overall pick in the draft. Johnson logged 2,494 rushing yards and 32 rushing touchdowns along with 55 receptions over his three years in the SEC—and he's only 20 years old. 

Theo Riddick, Dwayne Washington, Ameer Abdullah and Zach Zenner have had years to earn the full-time role in Detroit, and none of them have brought the team the results it has wanted. It's possible that veteran LeGarrette Blount steals some goal-line carries that keep Johnson from a significant touchdown number this season, but he should be the team's top back between the 20s.

Sony Michel, RB, New England Patriots

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Since 2006, there have been 251 instances when a running back carried the ball at least 200 times in a single season. Out of those 251, the New England Patriots only produced three of them, all to backs who only did it once with the team: LeGarrette Blount (299 in 2016), Stevan Ridley (290 in 2012) and BenJarvus Green-Ellis (229 in 2010). In 2014, the team didn't even record a single 100-carry rusher.

This is all while the Patriots overwhelming played with the lead, as they've posted a 151-41 record over that period. Investing in a New England back in fantasy has mostly been fool's gold for a decade-plus. Despite the fact that Georgia running back Sony Michel was selected in the first round of this past draft, the ghost of running backs past linger.

Making matters more complicated, the Patriots have some depth at the position:

• Mike Gillislee (104 carries and one reception in 2017)
• Rex Burkhead (64 carries and 30 receptions in 2017)
• James White (43 carries and 56 receptions in 2017)

While the loss of Dion Lewis, who has since signed with the Tennessee Titans, frees up 180 carries, it opens up only 32 backfield receptions.

Catching the ball out of the backfield is one of the biggest positives to Michel's game. Will he have to compete with Burkhead and White for what he does best? Be cautiously optimistic about Michel in New England, with an emphasis on cautiously. 

Sleeper: John Kelly, RB, Los Angeles Rams

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If you're looking for a deep sleeper, watch out for Los Angeles Rams running back John Kelly. Kelly fell to the sixth round after some projections had him coming off the board on Day 2, but, more importantly, he's the only Rams running back with any sort of a pedigree behind star back Todd Gurley.

Last year, only two backs in Los Angeles had more than 11 carries on the season: Gurley (279) and Malcolm Brown (63). In the one game Gurley did not play, Brown carried the ball 14 times and was targeted five times.

If Gurley goes down with an injury, the Rams' reliance on running the football (ninth in the NFL in attempts) and using running backs in the passing game (Gurley had 87 targets) could vault Kelly into one of the 10 most valuable backs in fantasy football. Brown, who the team hasn't played often and was signed as an undrafted free agent in 2015, is the only thing standing in the way of that if Gurley can't suit up on Sundays. If you can bare using a roster spot on Kelly, it's worth the reward.