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B/R Expert NCAA Bracket Picks 2018: Final Four Predictions

Bleacher Report College Basketball StaffMar 30, 2018

After a painfully long hiatus since the Elite Eight ended, the 2018 men's Final Four will take place Saturday in San Antonio.

What should we expect from the No. 11 seed that has defied all expectations? And how about the other three significantly less surprising national semifinalists?

Nothing about this NCAA tournament has been predictable (what else is new?), but that has never stopped us from trying to forecast what is to come.

Bleacher Report's college basketball experts—David Gardner, David Kenyon, Kerry Miller and C.J. Moore—have offered predictions on some of the biggest questions heading into Saturday. Questions such as:

  • Who wins each game?
  • Which under-the-radar player will have a breakout performance in the semifinals?
  • Who has the brightest NBA future among these four rosters?
  • Which of these squads will be back in the Final Four one year from now?

Our experts are on the case to let you know.

Will Loyola-Chicago Become the 1st Double-Digit Seed to Play for a Title?

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David Gardner — follow on Twitter @byDavidGardner

No. The Ramblers have had a remarkable run, but they will face their toughest test of the tournament against the Michigan Wolverines. And I don't think they'll pass. Michigan has two main factors that I believe will help it advance to Monday night's national championship game. The first is its fantastic defense, which is fourth in efficiency nationally, per KenPom.com. And the second is Moritz Wagner. The 6'11" junior center can bang in the post and also step out to shoot threes, and he'll be be a matchup nightmare for Loyola of Chicago.

David Kenyon — follow on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR

While my answer is no, it's more a compliment to Michigan than a criticism of Loyola. The Wolverines are equally tough to beat on the perimeter, so I'm expecting a low-scoring slugfest in which Michigan becomes the first team to hold off a last-second charge from the Ramblers. 

Kerry Miller — follow on Twitter @kerrancejames

Nothing would shock me at this stage in this tournament, but I also don't see it happening. Michigan's defense is too good and too active to let the Ramblers get to the rim as often as they want, and the Wolverines rarely commit turnovers. Even if they are cold from the field for the fourth time in five games, this figures to be a game played in the high 50s or low 60s. The better team will find a way to clear that hurdle, and the better team is Michigan.

C.J. Moore — follow on Twitter @CJMooreHoops

No, but there's a chance. There is not much of a talent gap between the Wolverines and the Ramblers. Loyola has already knocked off a team on Michigan's level in Tennessee. I like Michigan to win, but I think it'll be close. 

Which No. 1 Seed Advances to the National Championship?

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David Gardner

Villanova. The Wildcats are the best and most balanced team remaining in the NCAA tournament. Their offense is the best in the nation, and their defense isn't far behind. They've won each of their NCAA tournament games by an average of 18.3 points, and they have two of the three best remaining players in the tournament in juniors Jalen Brunson and Mikal Bridges.

David Kenyon

The simple analysis is whichever team hits threes most consistently. Though a deep group of shooters is exactly why I picked Kansas over Duke, I give that edge to Villanova. The Wildcats also do a better job protecting the ball, and it's nearly impossible to beat them without forcing turnovers.

Kerry Miller

Villanova has been my pick to win the tournament since early January, and the Wildcats have won all four of their games by double-digit margins. I'm not suddenly going to change my tune now. But I do expect an outstanding game pitting two of the best lead guards (Brunson and Devonte' Graham) and two of the best driving wings (Bridges and Malik Newman) in the country against one another. Villanova is just too balanced, though, and Kansas is overdue for a bit of a lackluster offensive output. 

C.J. Moore

Villanova. This is going to be a close game as well. Both teams are great offensively, but I trust Villanova's ability to get defensive stops more so than I do Kansas'.

Who Will Be the MVP of Loyola-Chicago vs. Michigan?

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David Gardner

Moe Wagner. He will be a matchup nightmare for Loyola-Chicago. Although Wagner has been somewhat inconsistent against more fundamentally sound big men, no one on Loyola's roster fits that bill. Wagner will have two inches on every player on the roster, and he should have plenty of space to do damage on the offensive end.

David Kenyon

Charles Matthews won Most Outstanding Player in the West Regional, and his hot streak will continue. Loyola will run the Wolverines off the three-point line as much as possible, so his ability to attack the rim and create for teammates will be the difference in a Michigan win. 

Kerry Miller

He probably won't be named the MVP, but the actual most valuable player will be Zavier Simpson. One area where Loyola most struggles is live-ball turnovers. Each tournament opponent has recorded at least seven steals against the Ramblers. Meanwhile, in Simpson's last two games, he has 10 assists, nine steals and just two turnovers. His ability to both run the offense and serve as the first line of defense will be invaluable.

C.J. Moore

Wagner. His ability to shoot threes and operate on the perimeter may force Porter Moser to go small like he did against Nevada. But if he does that, Wagner could burn the Ramblers inside as well.

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Who Will Be the MVP of Kansas vs. Villanova?

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David Gardner

Jalen Brunson. It's hard for me to imagine any scenario in which the MVP of this game isn't Jalen Brunson or Devonte' Graham. Brunson and Graham are two of college basketball's best guards over the last decade, and it'll be a thrill to watch them go jaw to jaw on Saturday night. I give the edge to Brunson because I believe his Wildcats are the better overall team. 

David Kenyon

Mikal Bridges can erupt offensively at any given moment, but his defensive impact will be a problem for Kansas. He averages 1.5 steals per game, and Kansas' rate of giveaways has steadily climbed in each NCAA tournament game. That's asking for trouble against a terrific defender in Bridges and an up-tempo Villanova team. 

Kerry Miller

If Villanova wins, Brunson should be the MVP. His knack for coming up big at the most important moments in critical games is second to none. But if Kansas wins, it will be because the Wildcats have no answer for Udoka Azubuike. If he can establish himself as a healthy weapon with a few dunks early in the game, everything in the playbook will be available to the Jayhawks the rest of the way.

C.J. Moore

Brunson. He typically doesn't have a bad shooting night in back-to-back games, so he's due to shoot it better after struggling against Texas Tech. This is also his time to shine after being more of a complementary piece two years ago at the Final Four. 

Which Under-the-Radar Player Will Have the Biggest Impact on Saturday?

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David Gardner

Lagerald Vick. At this point in the tournament, it's difficult to define any player remaining as under the radar. But Vick is perhaps the best fit. He's the least talked about of Kansas' starters, but he gives the Jayhawks a ton of quality minutes and is an underrated shooter. 

David Kenyon

Though he's only scored 15 points and is 1-of-7 beyond the arc in the last three outings, Phil Booth has provided 16 rebounds and 10 assists during that stretch. As a 39 percent three-point shooter, the math suggests Booth will find that range again. Perhaps most important, though, it's possible he's tasked with defending Malik Newman. Even if he doesn't shut Newman down, Booth could limit the Elite Eight hero. 

Kerry Miller

How about Collin Gillespie? It seems like every time we hype up an individual battle in college basketball, the referees decide to intervene with a few early whistles. And Brunson has committed a total of 10 fouls in the last three games. Gillespie is a good enough shooter and defender to make an impact if he gets the opportunity.

C.J. Moore

Omari Spellman will be a key piece for the Wildcats on Saturday. His ability to play on the perimeter will be difficult for Udoka Azubuike to handle. He also needs to stay out of foul trouble, because if he goes to the bench, Nova does not have another guy with the size and strength to deal with Azubuike.  

Aside from Mikal Bridges, Which Player in Final Four Has Brightest NBA Future?

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David Gardner

Jalen Brunson. There are a couple potential picks here, most notably Moe Wagner and Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk. I think Brunson has the brightest future because of his high basketball IQ. He isn't necessarily as explosive as you'd like an NBA point guard to be, but he begins to make up for it in his feel for the game and his presence on the court. He helped himself a lot by putting up 27 points (on 15 shots) against West Virginia's Jevon Carter. 

David Kenyon

I'm stuck between Brunson and Malik Newman, so here's a cop-out answer. In the right fit, both players could be quality reserves. I'm not expecting an All-Star-type player to emerge from this group beyond Bridges, but Brunson is such a versatile scorer and Newman has intriguing explosiveness to complement his three-point range.

Kerry Miller

I have been saying all season long that we are destined for Brunson to get drafted by the San Antonio Spurs late in the first round before becoming Tony Parker 2.0 for the next decade. But I'm starting to think Newman might actually be the biggest star here. Remember, he was a top-10 recruit when he signed with Mississippi State, and his improvement now that he is in a good system with better teammates has been remarkable.

C.J. Moore

Brunson. His intelligence and strength will keep him in the league for a long time. Brunson isn't as quick as scouts would probably like, but he has a knack for getting where he wants on the floor.  

If One of These Teams Returns to the Final Four in 2019, It Will Be...

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David Gardner

Kansas. Depending on potential NBA draft departures, Villanova and Michigan could begin the 2018-19 season in the top 10 in the country. The Jayhawks will lose seniors Devonte' Graham and Svi Mykhailiuk (and could lose Malik Newman to the NBA draft), but they'll return a strong senior guard in Lagerald Vick, an NBA-caliber big man in Udoka Azubuike and more than enough experience on the wings. Kansas will also welcome a strong incoming class of freshmen in Quentin Grimes and Devon Dotson—and potentially Romeo Langford, too. 

David Kenyon

Kansas, though it's possible the roster is considerably different. The Jayhawks have a terrific recruiting class, three prized transfers and an experienced backcourt if both Newman and Vick return. Azubuike and Silvio De Sousa would also be an outstanding one-two combo in the post. 

Kerry Miller

It's a really tough call between Kansas and Villanova, as both are mortal locks to be ranked in the top five of every way-too-early top 25. It wouldn't be the least bit surprising to see both back here next year. But I'm going with Villanova because the Wildcats don't have a single senior on the roster and they have already signed a trio of top-50 recruits, including 5-star PG Jahvon Quinerly. Mikal Bridges will almost certainly go pro and Jalen Brunson may well join him, but even without that pair of All-Americans, the amount of returning (and new) talent here is ridiculous.

C.J. Moore

Kansas. The Jayhawks are loaded next season with a solid recruiting class coming in and some talented transfers sitting out, headlined by former Memphis star Dedric Lawson. Lawson is probably the most talented player on KU's roster right now. 

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