NCAA Tournament 2018: Analyzing Championship Odds for Remaining Teams

The 2018 men's NCAA tournament has operated like a demolition crew on a tight schedule, busting brackets and ousting top seeds at an incredible (and in some cases, unprecedented) rate.

The left side of the bracket now resembles a post-apocalyptic wasteland, and the right side still shows the wreckage of a double-digit seed dispatching a popular champion pick.

With the Sweet 16 in place, Sin City has updated its championship odds. And they aren't as shocking as this tournament suggests, although who would have foreseen fourth and fifth seeds sharing the third-best odds of cutting down the nets?

Let's take a look at how the gambling world pegs the remaining field, courtesy of OddsShark.

Championship Odds

1. Duke Blue Devils: +325

2. Villanova Wildcats: +450

T-3. Kentucky Wildcats: +700

T-3. Gonzaga Bulldogs: +700

5. Michigan Wolverines: +800

6. Kansas Jayhawks: +850

T-7. West Virginia Mountaineers: +1,600

T-7. Purdue Boilermakers: +1,600

9. Texas Tech Red Raiders: +2,200

T-10. Texas A&M Aggies: +2,500

T-10. Clemson Tigers: +2,500

T-10. Nevada Wolf Pack: +2,500

13. Kansas State Wildcats: +2,800

14. Florida State Seminoles: +4,000

15. Loyola-Chicago Ramblers: +5,000

16. Syracuse Orange: +6,600

Odds Analysis

Safe Bet: Duke

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

Why go out on a limb when you can stay on the safety of the tree trunk and still get a good return?

There isn't a more talented team on the dance floor than head coach Mike Krzyzewski's Blue Devils, who have eight double-digit wins and only two losses (by a combined six points) since Feb. 11. This roster likely includes a pair of top-10 picks in the upcoming NBA draft (Marvin Bagley III and Wendell Carter Jr.) and maybe three other selections (Grayson Allen, Trevon Duval and Gary Trent Jr.).

All five of those players are double-digit scorers, hence why Duke ranks as the nation's third-most efficient offense. And Krzyzewski's shift to a zone defense has carried that unit—once a weak spot—into the No. 8 ranking.

"The team that gave up at least 81 points in four of its first five losses and a total of nine times in the first 24 games? It died along with the man-to-man defense in mid-February," Bleacher Report's Kerry Miller wrote. "Since the switch to zone, Duke is allowing just 61.7 points per game and has yet to give up more than 74."

The Blue Devils are one of those juggernauts that are so gifted they probably don't face a bigger threat than themselves. Turnovers can hurt this team and did during late-season defeats against Virginia Tech and North Carolina (18 each).

But all that means is Duke needs to coax top-level execution from a roster loaded with future NBA talent and overseen by a world-class coach. This might not be the most exciting wager around, but it's the most logical one.

Smart Bet: Kansas

Jamie Squire/Getty Images

There are a million liquid rankings you can find throughout the tournament. It's a way of evaluating teams on the fly and having those judgments reflect the most recent data available.

But don't forget about this ranking—the tournament selection committee deemed Kansas one of the four strongest teams in the field of 64. Now that it's been whittled down to 16, suddenly head coach Bill Self's squad is only the sixth-likeliest champion?

Look, oddsmakers took that stance for a reason.

The Jayhawks haven't looked particularly sharp in the Big Dance, and their 46th-ranked defense has been a concern all season. Their path to the championship game probably runs through both Duke and Villanova. Tack on the fact starting center Udoka Azubuike has been battling a knee injury, and it's easy to see why there could be some apprehension around Kansas.

But look at the Jayhawks' body of work.

They went 29-7 while playing the country's 10th-toughest schedule. For reference, Kentucky was 26-10 against the 19th-most difficult, and Michigan was 30-7 against the 38th-trickiest.

Kansas has a Naismith finalist in senior point guard Devonte' Graham (17.4 points and 7.5 assists per game). The only other finalists still in the field come from Duke (Bagley) and Villanova (Jalen Brunson). The Jayhawks also have an All-Big 12 second-teamer (Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk), a third-teamer (Azubuike) and the conference newcomer of the year (Malik Newman).

Between those four and Lagerald Vick (all-conference honorable mention), that's five players who average 12-plus points. And all but Azubuike are long-range threats, splashing more than one three per game and connecting on at least 37.8 percent of them.

You can red-flag this club if you want, but those are great odds to get for a team this talented.

Sleeper Bet: Texas A&M

Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

Just by virtue of playing on the left side of the bracket, the Aggies might deserve a bigger bump given the path in front of them. If they can get past Michigan on Thursday, they wouldn't see a team seeded higher than fourth until the championship game (assuming one even gets there).

Forget what the seed lines say—Texas A&M has a higher ceiling than Michigan.

Before injuries and suspensions flipped their season on its head, the Aggies were a top-five team. Their first game of this season was a 23-point thrashing of West Virginia on a neutral floor. Their most recent outing was a 21-point beatdown of defending champion North Carolina.

"The Aggies are playing well enough—right now—to possibly be the 'home' team in San Antonio next weekend," wrote NCAA.com's Andy Katz, who put them third in his Sweet 16 rankings.

Texas A&M boasts incredible size and tenacious defense.

Potential lottery pick Robert Williams and frontcourt mate Tyler Davis both stand 6'10" and weigh more than 500 pounds combined. Together they average 24.9 points, 18.3 rebounds and 4.0 blocks. Good luck finding an interior tandem who can match this size and skill.

If A&M's outside shooters are hitting—they have been so far—the Aggies will be hard to handle. Between their bigs and their 10th-ranked defense, they're a matchup problem in multiple ways.

Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of KenPom.com and ESPN.com.