
Teams on Upset Alert in Day 4 of the 2018 NCAA Tournament
One of the biggest reasons March Madness is so popular is the potential for upsets and Cinderella runs by lower-seeded teams. They can be unforgettable.
Friday's slate of games doesn't feature many obvious upset picks, but there are still a few matchups with the potential for a surprise outcome.
Of note, matchups between No. 8 and 9 seeds were not considered, as most of those teams are evenly matched. With those excluded, these are the matchups to watch on the fourth day of the tournament.
Odds via OddsShark opening lines.
Clemson
1 of 4
No. 5 Clemson (-4.5) vs. No. 12 New Mexico State (Midwest Region)
Clemson has slid since losing forward Donte Grantham for the season to a torn ACL in January. After his injury, the Tigers finished the season 7-6, going 2-6 against tournament teams.
This is Clemson's first tournament appearance since 2011, and the Tigers will have their work cut out for them in the first round with New Mexico State. The Aggies defense has been strong all year (tied for 15th-best in the country, per KenPom.com), and that could give a short-handed Clemson team problems.
With guard Zach Lofton (averaging 19.7 points per game) and forward Jemerrio Jones (11 points and 13.2 rebounds), New Mexico State has the firepower, and the Aggies have been a more consistent team.
West Virginia
2 of 4
No. 5 West Virginia (-9) vs. No. 12 Murray State (East Region)
Murray State is riding high on the country's longest winning streak, having won 13 straight. West Virginia could struggle to score enough to keep up.
It's going to be a clash of styles in this matchup: the Racers' high-scoring offense against the Mountaineers' tight, press-heavy defense. That West Virginia defense will be tasked with slowing down senior guard Jonathan Stark, who averaged 21.8 points per game this season while shooting 41 percent from three-point range. Murray State also features promising freshman point guard Temetrius Morant, who could give the Mountaineers problems.
"Morant is a high-level point guard," West Virginia coach Bob Huggins told reporters Thursday. "He's really good in transition, and probably as good at driving and finishing around the rim as anyone we've played."
Nevada
3 of 4
No. 7 Nevada (-1.5) vs. No. 10 Texas (South Region)
Texas star center Mohamed Bamba has been dealing with a toe injury, but he said Sunday he's good to go for the tournament, per Brian Davis of the Austin American-Statesman, which makes the Longhorns a potentially dangerous matchup for the Wolf Pack.
Nevada is one of the smallest teams in the tournament, without a player taller than 6'8". If Bamba is fully healthy, he should wreak havoc on the boards and in the paint, where he's been dominant all season, averaging 10.4 rebounds and 3.7 blocks per game.
To avoid being upset, Nevada will have to turn this game into a shootout, but that may be tough against Texas' length. This just feels like a mismatch the lower-seeded Longhorns are primed to exploit.
Texas A&M
4 of 4
No. 7 Texas A&M (-4.5) vs. No. 10 Providence (West Region)
Providence's impressive Big East tournament run culminated in an overtime loss to Villanova in the title game, but the Friars are still in good shape heading into March Madness. Senior point guard Kyron Cartwright, who averaged 11.8 points, 5.7 assists and 1.3 steals this season, could create matchup problems for A&M, whose guard play has left a lot to be desired.
For A&M, this matchup will come down to how well it exploits the size advantage it has. It ranks 23rd in the nation in rebounding margin at plus-5.9, which could overwhelm the undersized Friars. If the Aggies feed Robert Williams in the post, it could be too much for Providence to handle.

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