Projecting MLB's Most Lethal Offenses 5 Years from Now
Teams across Major League Baseball aren't desperate for runs anymore. The 2018 season figures to be the latest in a full-on offensive renaissance, and there are plenty of lineups out there that qualify as "loaded."
But what about five years from now?
As with our quest to project the top starting rotations of the not-too-distant future, the first thing to understand is that the target year is 2022, not 2023. By the time 2022 comes to a close, MLB will officially be five seasons past last season.
Otherwise, we're on the lookout for the same things:
- Controllable Young Hitters: Young position players who are already in the major leagues and under team control through 2022. This covers an exclusive list of present and future stars.
- Hitting Prospects: The more good hitting prospects a team has, the better. For this, the emphasis will be on the "Tier 1" prospects (i.e. guys with All-Star potential) from Bleacher Report's latest farm-system rankings.
- Future Spending Power: We don't want to get too carried away with predicting contract extensions and free-agent signings. However, it would be foolish to ignore teams that will have the financial flexibility for either/or in coming years. And the closer any free-agent signings are to 2022, the better.
Given how many moving parts are contained within any five-year period of MLB history, it goes without saying that this is a presumptuous exercise that may not age well.
Nonetheless, there's nothing wrong with a little imagination. Let's take it away.
30-16: Uncertainty and Questions Abound
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30. Kansas City Royals
The Royals play their home games in a lousy place to score runs. They're also short on long-term major league assets, and they don't have even a single Tier 1 hitting prospect in their MLB-worst farm system.
29. San Francisco Giants
In the Giants' system is a future star in outfielder Heliot Ramos. They also play in an offense-suppressing ballpark, however. And come 2022, elderly versions of Buster Posey and Evan Longoria will be the only holdovers from their current core of stars.
28. Detroit Tigers
The Tigers have begun to put together a solid farm, but the best players in it all throw the ball for a living. And while Miguel Cabrera will still be around in 2022, he'll be 39 years old.
27. Arizona Diamondbacks
It's hard to imagine the Diamondbacks not extending Paul Goldschmidt beyond 2019. But doing so would put a barrier in the way of their one and only impact hitting prospect: first baseman Pavin Smith.
26. Miami Marlins
The Marlins have one top outfield prospect who's ready now (Lewis Brinson) and another who should be ready soon (Monte Harrison). After 2020, they should also have a new TV contract to put to use. But for now, that's about it as far as their hopes go.
25. St. Louis Cardinals
Slugging shortstop Paul DeJong locked himself into St. Louis for the long haul, and the core around him will soon feature catcher Carson Kelly and slugger Tyler O'Neill. Elsewhere, there are a lot of blanks in the Cardinals' future lineup.
24. Cleveland Indians
The Indians have two well-rounded talents (Jose Ramirez and Bradley Zimmer) locked up through 2022. They're also looking forward to Francisco Mejia, who stands head and shoulders above all other catching prospects. None of this makes it easy to ignore that Francisco Lindor might be gone after 2021, however.
23. Pittsburgh Pirates
Gregory Polanco, Josh Bell and Colin Moran will still be around in 2022, and well-regarded outfield prospect Austin Meadows is bound to make something of himself eventually. The Pirates otherwise lack impact bats in their system and also have an offense-suppressing ballpark with which to contend.
22. Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers control shortstop Orlando Arcia and outfielders Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain through 2022. The latter will be 36, though. And outside of second baseman Keston Hiura, the team is short on hitting prospects who inspire confidence.
21. Minnesota Twins
The Twins are grooming two exciting middle infield prospects in Royce Lewis and Nick Gordon. According to Jim Bowden of The Athletic, they also have a shot at extending Byron Buxton. But that would leave little room for Miguel Sano, who can become a free agent after 2021.
20. Houston Astros
The Astros have one of the greatest offenses ever and a couple of future stars (OF Kyle Tucker and OF/1B Yordan Alvarez) waiting below. Trouble is, Alex Bregman is the only core star whom they control through 2022. Jose Altuve (2019), George Springer (2020) and Carlos Correa (2021) could all be gone by then.
19. Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays have two elite hitting prospects (3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and SS Bo Bichette) and one very good prospect (OF Anthony Alford) around which to build their future lineup. Otherwise, the future of their lineup is littered with unknowns.
18. New York Mets
The Mets have a trio of youngsters (SS Amed Rosario, 1B Dominic Smith and OF Brandon Nimmo) to build around. They're also due a post-2020 windfall that they can put to use extending Michael Conforto and/or signing free agents. All they need is some hitting talent in their barren farm system.
17. Washington Nationals
Starting with all-around outfielder Victor Robles and continuing with shortstop Carter Kieboom and outfielder Juan Soto, Washington's top three prospects are all hitters. Of their current core of stars, however, only Trea Turner is controlled through 2022.
16. Seattle Mariners
The Mariners control Robinson Cano, Jean Segura, Mitch Haniger, Ryon Healy and Ben Gamel through 2022. They're also sitting on two exciting prospects (OF Kyle Lewis and 1B Evan White). Given their ages, though, there's a question of how much gas their major league assets will have left in the tank.
15-11: Getting Warmer...
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15. Oakland Athletics
The A's have a couple of exciting Matts (Olson and Chapman) in their long-term plans, plus a once-and-future hitting star in Stephen Piscotty. In their farm is a deep collection of bats headlined by shortstop Franklin Barreto and Jorge Mateo. This being Oakland, however, the big question is how many of these guys actually stick around for more than a few years.
14. Colorado Rockies
The Rockies' history of extending their big stars (Todd Helton, Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez) allows for hope that Nolan Arenado will stick around beyond 2019. They also have a pool of young talent headlined by first baseman Ryan McMahon and shortstop Brendan Rodgers. Plus, they're always going to have the single biggest offensive advantage in MLB: Coors Field.
13. Baltimore Orioles
Chris Davis and Trey Mancini will still be around to provide power when 2022 rolls around. Even more exciting for the Orioles are the coming arrivals and integrations of three legit hitting prospects: outfielder Austin Hays, catcher Chance Sisco and infielder Ryan Mountcastle.
12. Los Angeles Angels
The Angels are due some payroll relief after 2020 and 2021 that should make it possible to keep Mike Trout for life. With two young outfielders (Jo Adell and Jahmai Jones) around him and Justin Upton at designated hitter, the makings for something special are there even if Shohei Ohtani's bat never exits its beta period.
11. Chicago Cubs
Willson Contreras, Ian Happ, Albert Almora and Jason Heyward will still be on the Cubs in 2022. Alas, they stand to lose Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, Addison Russell and Javier Baez after 2021. It'll be a tragedy if they don't at least keep Bryant and Rizzo, but that year will mark an unfortunate transition for Chicago's lineup no matter what happens.
10. Tampa Bay Rays
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After all the house-cleaning the Tampa Bay Rays have done, nobody should be surprised to hear that Kevin Kiermaier is the only established hitter under their control through 2022.
That's not a bad thing, though. Kiermaier is mainly known for the leather tractor beam that he calls a "glove," but he's also a decent hitter who's averaged a .750 OPS, 12 home runs and 15 stolen bases since 2014.
The best hitting prospect the Rays have is Willy Adames, who's an ultra-rare shortstop who can hit, hit for power, run and field his position. With little left to prove in the minors, he's not far from claiming his place as the team's primary cornerstone.
Tampa Bay's infield of the future could also include Christian Arroyo, who has a swing built for line drives, and potentially Brendan McKay as well. If he doesn't make it as a hard-throwing left-hander, he'll make it as a sweet-swinging first baseman with power.
Outfielders Jesus Sanchez and Jake Bauers complete the Rays' list of Tier 1 prospects. Infielder Lucius Fox doesn't make the cut for Tier 1, but he has the patient approach to profile as a future leadoff man.
All that's missing is a catcher and a DH. The Rays could fill the former with one of two backstops (Ronaldo Hernandez and Nick Ciuffo) they have buried deep within their system. For the latter, even they should be able to afford somebody like a Justin Bour after 2020.
The Lineup (By Position): Hernandez, McKay, Fox, Arroyo, Adames, Bauers, Kiermaier, Sanchez, Bour
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9. Cincinnati Reds
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Yes, the Cincinnati Reds will still be paying Joey Votto in 2022. And yes, he'll be 38 years old.
But at this point, nothing short of a mind-control device should convince anyone that Votto will ever stop hitting.
He is one of the best pure hitters baseball has ever seen, and his most recent season was arguably his best. He led the National League with a 1.032 OPS, hit 36 homers and, amazingly, walked 51 more times than he struck out.
Also in for the long haul is catcher Tucker Barnhart, a Gold Glover with a disciplined batting eye, and outfielder Scott Schebler, who broke out with 30 homers last year. The Reds are also at a point where the kids should begin arriving in droves.
First up will be outfielder Jesse Winker, whose own excellent approach produced a .398 OBP in the minors. After him will come third baseman Nick Senzel, who was Cincinnati's No. 2 pick in 2016.
A little later should come second baseman Shed Long, whose bat is arguably worthy of Tier 1 status. Then, finally, should come outfielder Taylor Trammell, who comes close to having Billy Hamilton's speed while offering a much better bat.
This leaves shortstop as the only hole that the Reds can't necessarily fill from within. With payroll relief headed their way after 2019, either Xander Bogaerts or old friend Didi Gregorius could be the answer.
The Lineup (By Position): Barnhart, Votto, Long, Senzel, Gregorius, Winker, Trammell, Schebler
8. San Diego Padres
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The San Diego Padres' 2022 lineup should look a lot like their 2018 lineup.
Their offense will still be built around 28-year-old Eric Hosmer and 27-year-old Wil Myers. While neither has been the most consistent hitter, it bodes well that they each have potential to tap into as they approach the age-30 plateau.
Alongside Myers in San Diego's outfield will be Jose Pirela, who broke out with an .837 OPS last year, and Manuel Margot, whose bat might eventually catch up with his glove. Behind the plate, the Padres will still have slugging catcher Austin Hedges.
At this point, it's no secret the Padres also have a loaded farm system. At least in this discussion, the downside is that it's mostly loaded with arms.
However, Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as MLB.com's No. 8 prospect in part because he has huge offensive potential for a shortstop. He made it to Double-A as a mere 18-year-old in 2017, along the way putting up an .877 OPS with 22 homers and 32 stolen bases.
Tatis' future double-play partner is Luis Urias. Although he lacks power and speed, he has an ultra-advanced bat that's produced a .396 OBP in the minors.
The only thing the Padres are missing is a third baseman. By the time the 2020-2021 offseason rolls around, they should be ready to splurge on, say, Jake Lamb.
The Lineup (By Position): Hedges, Hosmer, Urias, Lamb, Tatis, Pirela, Margot, Myers
7. Texas Rangers
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Among the players the Texas Rangers control through 2022 are a couple of power sources who'll only be 28 years old by then: Joey Gallo and Rougned Odor.
Even in what was otherwise a terrible year, Odor made it to 30 home runs in 2017 for the second time in as many seasons. For his part, Gallo slammed 41 dingers in what was merely his first step toward becoming one of MLB's great sluggers.
These two will still be flanked by Elvis Andrus, who'll be 33, if he doesn't opt out of his contract after 2018 or 2019. And while he seems likely to do that following last year's 20-homer breakout, he told Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star Telegram that he isn't planning on it.
"I want to be here. I want to retire here. Everyone knows that," the veteran shortstop said.
For 2018, the Rangers are set to introduce Willie Calhoun as a regular in their lineup. Although his glove is a major question mark, a bat that produced a .927 OPS and 31 homers in the minors last year is anything but.
Fellow sweet-singer Ronald Guzman might also debut this year, with well-regarded outfielder Leody Taveras due to arrive by 2020 or so. He may not be a Tier 1 prospect, but 2017 first-rounder Bubba Thompson also has a ticket to Texas' outfield in hand.
All that's needed are a couple of free-agent signings to finish things off. In the crystal ball are Charlie Blackmon, who was born in Dallas, after 2018 and slugging catcher Mike Zunino after 2020.
The Lineup (By Position): Zunino, Guzman, Odor, Gallo, Andrus, Thompson, Taveras, Blackmon, Calhoun
6. Atlanta Braves
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Anyone looking for change in the Atlanta Braves lineup need not focus on the middle of the diamond.
With Dansby Swanson at shortstop and Ozzie Albies at second base, they already have long-term upside in the middle of their infield. With Ender Inciarte controlled for cheap through 2022, they also have a defensive wiz in center field.
Of course, it won't be long before all three are overshadowed by Ronald Acuna.
Because Shohei Ohtani is only kinda-sorta a prospect, Acuna is arguably the best true prospect in baseball. He's a legit five-tool talent who, despite being just 19 years old, spent 2017 advancing to Triple-A and dominating the Arizona Fall League. Now he's dominating spring training, which is an eye-opening audition if there ever was one.
"He's the total package," Braves manager Brian Snitker said, according to David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. "He's going to be an exciting player for a lot of years."
Not to be overlooked in Atlanta's system is Austin Riley, a slugger who should claim third base for the long haul. Outfielder Cristian Pache isn't a Tier 1 prospect, but he has enough hitting ability and athleticism to line up alongside Acuna and Inciarte in a few years' time.
All that's left is answers for first base and catcher. Because the Braves have a new ballpark and are about to spend the coming years littered with young (i.e. cheap) talent, two good ones are an extension for Freddie Freeman and a free-agent contract for J.T. Realmuto after 2020.
The Lineup (By Position): Realmuto, Freeman, Albies, Riley, Swanson, Acuna, Inciarte, Pache
5. Boston Red Sox
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If nothing else, the Boston Red Sox will still have Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers in 2022.
Benintendi, 23, is one of the most advanced young hitters to come along in years. Since he also has some power and speed, it's a safe guess that the .776 OPS, 20 homers and 20 steals he finished with last year won't prove to be the high point for his production.
As for Devers, the homer that he hit off a 103 mph Aroldis Chapman fastball last year pretty much says it all. The 21-year-old has a feel for hitting that's well beyond his years, and good power to boot.
If Devers' volatile glove necessitates a move to first base, the Red Sox will have room for Michael Chavis, who broke out with a .910 OPS and 31 homers in the minors last year, at the hot corner. Roughly 90 feet ahead of him could be the seemingly resurrected Blake Swihart in a semi-regular role at catcher.
At designated hitter, J.D. Martinez might forgo his opt-outs and stay put through 2022. After all, his age likely won't make any future forays onto the free-agent market more friendly than the one he just went through.
From here, filling out the Red Sox's 2022 lineup requires spending their money. It's a good thing they have enough of that to allow for a little imagination.
With their books set to start clearing up after 2021, they should be able to afford to extend Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. and to sign Javier Baez as a replacement for Dustin Pedroia. To replace Xander Bogaerts after 2019, the Red Sox can call on unspectacular-yet-capable shortstop prospect C.J. Chatham.
The Lineup (By Position): Swihart, Devers, Baez, Chavis, Chatham, Benintendi, Bradley, Betts, Martinez
4. Philadelphia Phillies
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No, Bryce Harper isn't a Philadelphia Phillie yet.
But he will be.
It's been speculated that the 2015 NL MVP will sign with the Chicago Cubs, New York Yankees or Los Angeles Dodgers after his time with the Washington Nationals is up after 2018. But neither the Cubs nor the Yankees have an obvious place for him, and the Dodgers' immediate priority after this year is likely to be re-upping with Clayton Kershaw.
Thus, the Phillies will have an opening. Between their large checkbook and their shortage of long-term commitments, they have just what they need to take advantage of it.
Besides, "Who wouldn't want to join the Phillies?" is about to be a fair question, if it isn't already.
They have Odubel Herrera locked into center field for the foreseeable future. They're also set to enjoy Rhys Hoskins' many home runs and walks for years to come. To just about round things out, they already have top prospects at catcher (Jorge Alfaro) and shortstop (J.P. Crawford) and will soon have them at second base (Scott Kingery) and left field (Mickey Moniak) as well.
Only third base lacks a concrete long-term answer. The perfect time to address that will be after seeing Maikel Franco into free agency after 2021. Among those who could take his place is Miguel Sano.
The Lineup (By Position): Alfaro, Hoskins, Kingery, Sano, Crawford, Moniak, Herrera, Harper
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
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The Los Angeles Dodgers lineup is awfully loaded right now, but few pieces within it are locked up through 2022.
On the bright side, Cody Bellinger is one notable guy who is.
The 132 games he played in last year was plenty for him to set a new National League rookie record with 39 homers. He also had a .933 OPS and stole 10 bases. If he could do all this at the age of 21, it follows that he can do even better as he progresses into his mid-20s.
On another bright side, the other thing the Dodgers have for the future is an abundance of hitting prospects.
Outfielder Alex Verdugo, who's a career .305 hitter in the minors, is ready to make an impact in 2018. Before long, he could be flanked by a pair of athletic outfielders: Yusniel Diaz and Jeren Kendall. if Austin Barnes doesn't hack it as an everyday catcher, the Dodgers can call on Keibert Ruiz in a few years.
On still another bright side, the Dodgers are never going to be hurting for money.
They have deep pockets and, as of now, can look forward to being largely finished with salary commitments after 2020. That's an excuse to extend Corey Seager beyond 2021, as well as to find upgrades for second base in the immediate future and for third base when Justin Turner's deal is up after 2020.
How about, say, Jose Altuve after 2019 and Eugenio Suarez after 2020?
The Lineup (By Position): Ruiz, Bellinger, Altuve, Suarez, Seager, Diaz, Kendall, Verdugo
2. Chicago White Sox
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The building of the Chicago White Sox's future lineup began last year with their double-play combination.
Although consistency is likely to always be a challenge for shortstop Tim Anderson, his power and speed will help mitigate that. Second baseman Yoan Moncada has plenty of his own power and speed, and the former uber-prospect may have solved his own consistency troubles when he finished with a solid .261/.357/.447 batting line in his final 42 games of 2017.
The next phase for the White Sox involves setting their future outfield. Step one is plugging Eloy Jimenez, he of the literal light-tower power, into right field. A couple of years down the line, the White Sox should plug Luis Robert into center field and Blake Rutherford into left field.
That's the extent of the White Sox's Tier 1 hitting prospects but not the end of their useful prospects. Zack Collins can be a power-hitting catcher for them. Jake Burger has power of his own to offer at third base.
Since Burger won't be ready for a few years still, the White Sox have an excuse to start utilizing their nigh-limitless payroll space to solve their hot-corner conundrum after 2018. Josh Donaldson would be perfect, as he could play third before switching to DH once Burger is ready.
This just leaves the last bit of unfinished business: extending Jose Abreu beyond 2019. That's doable, and he's ready.
"I would like to stay here forever," the slugging first baseman said last September, per Vinnie Duber of CSN Chicago.
The Lineup (By Position): Collins, Abreu, Moncada, Burger, Anderson, Rutherford, Robert, Jimenez, Donaldson
1. New York Yankees
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At the heart of the New York Yankees' 2018 lineup are Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez. Had they been teammates last year, they would have combined for 144 homers.
They'd better get used to each other.
Judge and Sanchez are under team control through exactly that year. Stanton's 13-year, $325 million contract has an opt-out after 2020, but it won't necessarily be his ticket out of The Bronx for two reasons:
- One: Using it would mean rejecting $193 million after his age-31 season.
- Two: New York is one of the only teams that could afford him even if he did.
The Yankees' more immediate future, meanwhile, should be marked by the introduction of several youngsters into their everyday lineup.
Top prospects Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar are ready for second base and third base, respectively. Fellow top prospect Estevan Florial should be ready for center field by 2020. There's also a role to play for former top prospect Clint Frazier, who can take Brett Gardner's place in left field after 2019.
According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Yankees and Manny Machado are destined to find each other after 2018. Bringing him aboard would narrow the Yankees' list of long-term questions down to one: who's at first base after Greg Bird's team control is up after 2021?
Since his left-handed power would be a perfect bow on a deep and multi-talented lineup, here's an idea: How about Greg Bird?
The Lineup (By Position): Sanchez, Bird, Torres, Andujar, Machado, Frazier, Florial, Judge, Stanton
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference. Contract and payroll data courtesy of Cot's Baseball Contracts.
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