NCAA Tournament 2018: Buying or Selling Top Contenders in the Men's Field
After an entertaining season, conference tournaments didn't make it simple on the selection committee charged with crafting the 68-team bracket for the 2018 NCAA men's basketball tournament.
The 2017-18 campaign was wild from the opening tip, with a typical juggernaut like Kentucky sometimes struggling with its youth and a somewhat-unexpected Purdue shooting up the boards of contention. No team sported a flawless record going into January, and some of the squads vying for top seeds boasted opposing strengths, which should make for good late-bracket matchups—if they even make it far enough.
Upsets and Cinderellas aren't anything new for March Madness, though this year's bracket could feature more, with lesser seeds taking out favorites as parity continues to sweep the collegiate scene's landscape.
Below, let's look at some of the top contenders based on lines provided by OddsShark. We'll chop them into buy-sell statuses based on critical strengths or flaws and resume hints, with the aim being to help with those tricky brackets before the first round starts Thursday.
Buy: Virginia
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There isn't too much shocking about a Tony Bennett-led team that boasts monstrous defensive numbers, which it struggles to match on the offensive end of the court.
Alas, here are the Virginia Cavaliers, the squad with the best record in the ACC and the ACC tournament winner thanks to a title-game thumping of North Carolina, 71-63, at the Barclays Center on Saturday.
There, the Cavaliers did what they do, forcing the Tar Heels to shoot 40.8 percent from the floor while three North Carolina players hit double-digit production (Luke Maye, Joel Berry II and Kenny Williams). The triumph means a two-loss season for the Cavaliers, though the accolades hardly end there.
At KenPom.com, the Cavaliers rank first in adjusted defensive efficiency—with the best mark in the last 17 years (84.4 points allowed per 100 possessions), according to ESPN.com's Jeff Borzello.
Virginia's only flaw comes on the offensive end of the court, but ranking 21st in adjusted offensive efficiency (116.5 points per 100 possessions) isn't the worst mark when the team hasn't allowed more than 68 points in a game this season.
While there is an imbalance here, the tournament's top overall seed shouldn't have too many problems breezing to the Sweet 16 before perhaps encountering Kentucky or Arizona. Even then, these Cavaliers nabbed the top seed for a reason.
Sell: Purdue
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Before the turn of the year, the Purdue Boilermakers looked like they would be heavyweights poised for a deep run in the bracket.
Things have steadily turned in the other direction.
After beating the Michigan Wolverines twice during the regular season by a total of five points, the Boilermakers lost the Big Ten title game to them, 75-66. The defeat snapped a five-game winning streak and refocused the lens on the fact the team is only 8-4 over its last 12—a far cry from the 19-game streak it started Nov. 24 against Arizona.
These Boilermakers are only ninth in RPI, according to CBSSports.com, sitting at 3-4 against the RPI top 25 and 5-5 against the top 50. The biggest problem comes on the defensive end of the court, where the team ranks 28th in adjusted defensive efficiency (96.6 points allowed per 100 possessions).
While it's fun to watch Carsen Edwards pour in his 18.5 points per game and the 7'2" Isaac Haas go to work in the middle, teams running the floor and getting hot from deep could send home Purdue early. This could happen as early as the second round in a possible showdown with Butler, and things don't get easier in the East Regional, which features names like Texas Tech and Villanova.
Buy: Villanova
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The Villanova Wildcats look like the opposite of Virginia, with an elite offense propping up a sometimes-shaky defense.
Unlike Purdue, an odd stretch of games in February isn't a concern. The team's three losses by six or fewer points—one of them in overtime to Creighton—had key Wildcats missing and didn't provide much of a blemish on the way to a 30-4 mark with a Big East tournament win to boot.
It's not hard to see why we're all-in on buying Villanova. The Wildcats are the only team besides Virginia with an adjusted efficiency north of 30, and they not only went 4-0 against the RPI top 25, but also 12-3 against the top 50.
Villanova's No. 1 offense features six scorers averaging double digits, led by Jalen Brunson (19.4 points per game) and Mikal Bridges (18.0).
As for the bracket itself, the Wildcats have one of the easiest paths of any contender this year, as a run to the Elite Eight before encountering serious resistance seems plausible. Even then, that game could be against a battered Purdue squad emerging from a brutal section.
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Sell: Michigan State
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Head coach Tom Izzo's Michigan State Spartans perhaps didn't meet preseason expectations, though balance should have the team feeling good as it dives headfirst into the madness.
These Spartans aren't going to fret much over a loss to a rival like Michigan in the Big Ten semifinal. While disappointing, the defeat snapped a 13-game winning streak—only the team's second-best run of the year thanks to a 14-game tear beginning Nov. 19.
Thank outstanding balance, as expected from an Izzo-led team.
The Spartans sit ninth in both adjusted offensive efficiency (120.0 points per 100 possessions) and defensive efficiency (93.6 points allowed per 100 possessions). A 2-4 mark against the RPI top 50 is worrisome, however, even if two losses to Michigan and a seven-point hiccup against Duke inflate that.
Balanced or not, the Spartans have come up short on big stages, and the bracket is, in a word, devastating.
The Midwest Regional is downright stacked thanks to the presence of No. 1 seed Kansas and No. 2 Duke. There isn't an easy matchup for the Spartans at any point, so selling is the best option here.
Buy: Duke
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When it comes to the efficiency-balanced contenders heading to the tournament, it's easy to take Duke and relax.
The awful two-game stretch in early February featuring a loss to the erratic St. John's Red Storm is one of the biggest talking points chasing the Blue Devils into the Big Dance. The team rebounded, however, and won seven of eight before losing the ACC tournament title game to North Carolina.
There's no need to hit the panic button.
The switch to a zone defense has erased many of the Blue Devils' problems from earlier in the season, prompting the team to rank third and seventh in adjusted offensive efficiency (122.6 points per 100 possessions) and defensive efficiency (93.5 points allowed per 100 possessions), respectively. A 3-3 mark against the RPI top 25 gives way to a 8-3 standing against the top 50 too.
Unlike the ACC title game, in which Trevon Duval went scoreless with a slight ankle issue and the Blue Devils turned over the ball 18 times, a zone defense—which allows the team to better switch while keeping a pair of big men on the court—should have the Duke pushing deep into the tournament.
It won't be easy in a stacked Midwest Regional, obviously, but the confidence in Duke here should be telling.
Sell: Michigan
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Right now, Michigan looks solid after toppling Purdue in the Big Ten title game.
The problem, though, is it seems apparent this is a momentum-based run based on high energy and emotion.
The Wolverines have to sit around for 10 days after winning the conference tournament.
That's an especially negative point since Michigan struggles offensively, at least compared to some of the contenders. The Wolverines are 29th in adjusted offensive efficiency (115.9 points per 100 possessions), something they compensate for with their fifth-ranked defense (92.7 points allowed per 100 possessions). The team's offensive woes show up the 6-4 mark against the RPI top 50.
This doesn't mean Michigan isn't dangerous come tournament time, but the up-and-down nature of the offense paired with the huge break doesn't bode well.
Compounding the issue is the Wolverines' slot in the West Regional. The No. 3 seed has to deal with the top-seeded Xavier Musketeers (a horribly underrated team by oddsmakers), North Carolina and Gonzaga, not to mention other possible deep-run candidates such as Houston and Ohio State.
Buy: Kansas
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Prior to the Big 12 tournament, Kansas could have been classified as one of the most polarizing teams.
Not anymore.
Ranked 46th in adjusted defensive efficiency or not, the Jayhawks have emerged from a ridiculous conference sending seven teams to the tournament as a No. 1 seed. They are riding high after a title game win over the West Virginia Mountaineers featuring 18 points and 13 assists from Big 12 Player of the Year Devonte' Graham.
It has been easy to question if Kansas can hold up to the rigors of the Midwest bracket after some spotty struggles against a strong conference. But we're talking about the conference winners (once again) who also sport 13-2 and 21-7 marks against the RPI top 50 and 100, respectively.
Kansas quietly sits in the half of its region not featuring Michigan State or Duke, meaning the Jayhawks could pounce on either—should one emerge—and keep right on advancing.
Sell: Arizona
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Arizona might be one of the most entertaining teams in the bracket thanks to Deandre Ayton.
One of the best players in the nation, Ayton boasts averages of 20.3 points and 11.5 rebounds per game while shooting 61.6 percent from the floor. It was enough to help the Wildcats sit 13th in RPI, with a 5-2 mark against the RPI top 50.
But it starts to fall apart upon closer inspection. Arizona is talented, but there is a difference between talent and execution. The Wildcats are only 15th in adjusted offensive efficiency (119.0 points per 100 possessions), and even worse, they sit 70th in the defensive counterpart (99.6 points allowed per 100 possessions).
That last number is a major problem in the South Regional, which contains teams such as Cincinnati, Kentucky and Virginia. We've seen superstar performances from names like Ayton before, but the trip through the bracket seems filled with landmines of better-balanced teams.
RPI rankings courtesy of CBSSports.com. Advanced metrics via KenPom.com.
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