NCAA Tournament 2018: Low Seeds with Best Chances at Deep Runs After 1st Round

Luck can pull a team through the first round of the NCAA men's basketball tournament, but that good fortune tends to evaporate by the second round. Only solid teams can continue to advance into the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight, demonstrating that the selection committee should have seeded them higher.

Last year, the 11th-seeded Xavier got to the Elite Eight and No. 7-seeded South Carolina reached the Final Four. More unforgettable was the 11th-seeded George Mason's run in 2006, which beat top-seeded Connecticut on its way to the Final Four, and the 2011 success of the 11th-seeded Virginia Commonwealth, which barely made it into the field, had to play a First Four game and then won five games, including a 10-point victory over No. 1-seeded Kansas, to reach the Final Four.

You can almost count on at least one lower seed to be around for the second weekend since at least one team seeded 10th or lower has reached the Sweet 16 each of the past 10 years. It's a pretty good bet one will go even further because a double-digit seed got to the Elite Eight in five of those 10 seasons.

Identifying those low-seeded teams that could advance to the Elite Eight, perhaps even to the Final Four,  after just one game takes some serious analysis—and luck.

First-round winners seeded seventh or lower were considered in our hunt for surprise teams that could advance deep into the tournament.

A number of factors were considered, such as a team's momentum, the presence of a star who could carry his team or favorable matchups against upcoming opponents.

The slides are presented in the order of the team's promise, with the team least likely to advance to the Elite Eight listed first and the team with the best chance to advance deep into the tournament presented last.

When in doubt, we gave the nod to a team with a double-digit seed over a team with a slightly higher seed to promote a possible Cinderella ride.

No. 13 Buffalo

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There is no logical reason to think that a Buffalo team that owns losses to Northern Illinois, Miami (OH) and South Dakota State can win its second-round game against a talented Kentucky team that is hitting its stride. But after seeing what the Bulls did to No. 4 Arizona in the first round, it's impossible to dismiss them.

The quick, hustling Bulls always seemed to be at the right place at the right time against the Wildcats, who won eight of their nine games before being blown off the court in the second half of an 89-68 loss to Buffalo.

Any team that beats Arizona by 21 points is capable of more. Any team that averages 84.9 points, as Buffalo does, is capable of more. Any team that has four players averaging more than 14 points per game, as the Bulls do, is capable of more.

Largely because of their fast-paced style, the Bulls have had turnover problems this season, but they averaged only 8.6 turnovers over their past five games and never had more than 10.

The driving force lately has been point guard Wes Clark, a transfer from Missouri who had to sit out the first 10 games this season before becoming academically eligible. He scored 26 points with four steals in the victory over Toledo in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game and added 25 points and seven assists in the win over Arizona. In those two games, he was a combined 20-of-29 from the field, including 5-of-9 from three-point range.

If Clark can push the pace and limit his turnovers against Kentucky, the Bulls have a chance. They will not be intimidated. Buffalo lost to Cincinnati by just six points on a neutral court and led Syracuse by a point with about three minutes to go at Carrier Dome before losing by seven.

If the Bulls somehow get past Kentucky on Saturday, they would benefit from Virginia's absence. Instead of facing the tournament's No. 1 overall seed, Buffalo would probably face Kansas State, which might still be without its leading scorer, Dean Wade.

No. 7 Nevada

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Can a team from the Mountain West make it to the Sweet 16 or perhaps even the Elite Eight? Well, San Diego State reached the Sweet 16 twice, in 2011 and 2014, and Nevada dominated everyone in the Mountain West this season, except for the Aztecs.

The Wolf Pack became national players when twins Cody and Caleb Martin transferred from North Carolina State and became eligible this season. Caleb is the team's leading scorer at 19.1 point per game, but four Nevada players average better than 13 per contest. The Wolf Pack are not great defenders, but they can put up a lot of points, averaging 83.2 points per game.

Nevada barely squeezed past Texas in overtime in the first round of the NCAA tournament, but the Wolf Pack demonstrated their potential by beating Rhode Island early in the season and losing to Texas Tech in overtime on the Red Raiders' home court.

However, the selection of Nevada for this list is based largely on the Wolf Pack's second-round foe, No. 2-seeded Cincinnati. The Bearcats won the American Athletic Conference regular-season and tournament titles, but there is nothing on their resume to suggest they will dominate Nevada. Cincinnati's best wins came against Wichita State and Houston, teams that also had wins over the Bearcats this season. Cincinnati's top two nonconference opponents were Florida and Xavier, and the Bearcats lost to both. A road win over UCLA is the Bearcats' best nonconference showing.

Nevada will have trouble handling Cincinnati star Gary Clark, but the Wolf Pack have three perimeter players who will cause Cincinnati problems. Caleb Martin and Kendall Stephens are both making better than 40 percent of their three-pointers for the season, and Jordan Caroline, the team's top rebounder, is 11-of-18 from three-point range (61.1 percent) over the past five games.

No. 8 Seton Hall

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Seton Hall will have its hands full in its second-round game against No. 1 seed Kansas. But if the Pirates get past the Jayhawks—which is possible—the bracket would open up nicely for Seton Hall, with Auburn or Clemson being the chief obstacle toward an Elite Eight berth.

Seton Hall got overshadowed in the Big East, which was considered a two-team conference this year, with Xavier and Villanova dominating the attention. But finishing tied for third behind two teams that received No. 1 seeds in the NCAA tournament is not too bad.

The Pirates have played well recently, winning five of their past seven games. The two losses were a one-point overtime loss to Villanova and a one-point defeat against Butler.

More important perhaps is forward Desi Rodriguez's return. The team's leading scorer missed three games late in the season with an ankle injury. He returned in the Big East tournament loss to Butler, coming off the bench in that game and playing just 16 minutes. Rodriguez returned to the starting lineup in the first-round game against North Carolina State, pouring in 20 points in 29 minutes in that 94-83 victory.

Four Seton Hall players are averaging better than 13 points per game, and Khadeen Carrington has been hot lately, averaging 23.0 points over the past six games while hitting 10 of 20 three-point shots in that span.

Kansas will be favored against Seton Hall, but the Jayhawks have flaws, as indicated by losses to Washington and Arizona State and a pair of defeats against Oklahoma State. Kansas relies heavily on three-point shooting, and a subpar game from the perimeter could open the door for Seton Hall.

The Pirates beat North Carolina State in a foul-filled game. If Seton Hall can make the game against Kansas a stop-start affair wherein no team gains a rhythm, an upset is possible.

No. 9 Alabama

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Alabama is a funny team. The Crimson Tide can commit silly turnovers that leave you shaking your head. They can also make spectacular plays that leave you shaking your head.

Heading into the Southeastern Conference tournament they had lost five consecutive games and were in danger of not making the NCAA tournament. Then they beat Texas A&M and regular-season champion Auburn in the conference tournament, the latter by 18 points, before losing to Kentucky to head into the NCAA tournament with a head of steam.

Because of its carelessness with the ball, Alabama could well lose to Villanova by 20 points in the second round. The Tide entered the NCAA tournament averaging 14.1 turnovers per game, which ranked 293rd in the country, and they had 17 turnovers in the first-round win over Virginia Tech, dropping them to 296th. 

However, Tide freshmen Collin Sexton has so much raw talent and fellow freshman John Petty has been so hot from the perimeter lately that Alabama seems capable of beating almost anyone on any given day. Sexton is averaging 25.4 points over the past five games, and he scored 22 of his 25 points against Virginia Tech in the second half. Petty has made 11-of-17 shots from beyond the arc in the past two games, including 6-of-8 against the Hokies.

Alabama is a conundrum for oddsmakers. It owns a 16-point loss to Texas, a 19-point loss to Georgia, a 12-point loss to last-place Mississippi and a 21-point home loss to Florida. But it also recorded an 18-point road win over Florida, a 28-point win over Tennessee and that 18-point win over Auburn. You just don't know what you're going get.

Should the the Tide somehow upset Villanova, they would be riding a wave of youthful enthusiasm, with three of their top six players being freshmen. Slipping into the Elite Eight from there would not be a quantum leap.

No. 11 Loyola-Chicago

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Granted, Loyola of Chicago enjoyed a bit of good luck to get past first-round opponent Miami, as Donte Ingram hit a long three-point shot just before the buzzer to give the Ramblers a 64-62 victory. But it was not simply good fortune that put Loyola in position to win. The Ramblers are a solid team, and they have been playing excellent basketball since mid-January.

The Ramblers won the national championship in 1963, but they had dropped out of sight in the meantime. Loyola re-emerged this season, taking the Missouri Valley Conference regular-season and tournament titles to grab a first NCAA tournament berth in 33 years.

The most persuasive argument that the Ramblers could win a few more games came back on Dec. 6, when the Ramblers walked into Florida's home arena in Gainesville, Florida, and departed with a convincing 65-59 victory over the Gators, who were ranked No. 5 at the time.

Loyola then lost three of its next five games, but it should be noted Clayton Custer, the Ramblers' leading scorer, sat out those matchups with an ankle injury. He returned for the Jan. 7 game against Northern Iowa, and the Ramblers are 17-1 since then. That includes the 11-game winning streak that has Loyola thinking big thoughts.

The Ramblers do two things very well: shoot and play defense. They entered the tournament ranked third in the nation in field-goal percentage (50.7 percent) and 20th in three-point percentage (39.8 percent). They also ranked fifth nationally in scoring defense, yielding just 62.2 points per game with their ability to control a game's pace and execute effectively. They also have a balanced attack, with five players averaging double figures in scoring.

A second-round game against the third-seeded Tennessee will be a major challenge because the Vols are playing their best basketball of the season as well. But if the team gets past the Volunteers, Loyola's third-round opponent might be the second-seeded Cincinnati, a team the Ramblers are capable of beating.

Loyola may even have divine intervention on its side, with 98-year-old Sister Jean Dolores-Schmidt, the team's longtime chaplain, delivering pregame prayers. And as Josh Peter of USA Today noted, she prayed just before Ingram hit his game-winning shot against Miami.

No. 7 Texas A&M

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If Texas A&M did not have to face North Carolina in the second round, the Aggies might be atop this list. 

Getting past the Tar Heels will be a major challenge, but the Aggies are playing well enough to get past North Carolina if the breaks go their way. And if Texas A&M gets past UNC, a long run may be in store.

The Aggies are almost completely healthy after suffering through an injury-plagued season. They began the season as one of the nation's elite squads, reaching a national ranking of No. 5 after 12 games—one of which was a 23-point win over West Virginia.

But Texas A&M slipped out of the national picture as it went on a five-game losing streak to begin Southeastern Conference play. Injuries and suspensions robbed the Aggies of a number of key players through the middle part of the season. Admon Gilder, DJ Hogg, Robert Williams and Duane Wilson all missed multiple games.

With the exception of Wilson, they are all back, and the Aggies are again showing the form that made them a top-10 team earlier in the season. Texas A&M have won four of their past five games, with the only loss in that span being a one-point defeat against Alabama when Sexton hit a shot at the buzzer.

North Carolina prides itself on rebounding and ranked second in the country in rebounding margin (10.0) coming into the NCAA tournament. But the Aggies should be able to hold their own on the boards. They average 5.9 more rebounds than their opponents, and they manhandled Providence 44-26 on the boards in their first-round win.

Tyler Davis, who averages 9.0 rebounds, had 15 rebounds against the Friars, while Williams, who gets 9.2 rebounds per game, had 13 rebounds in 27 minutes in that game. Both players are 6'10".

The Aggies limited opponents to 40.4 percent shooting for the season, in large part because of their shot-blocking ability. They blocked eight shots against the smaller Friars, and Williams had seven blocks in a late-season game against Alabama.

No. 11 Syracuse

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That Syracuse zone defense has a habit of confounding opponents in the postseason. The Orange got to the Final Four in 2016 as a No. 10 seed and also reached the Final Four in in 2013 when it was seeded fourth. Both times, Syracuse beat a No. 1 seed along the way. And both times, its defense was the main factor.

This Syracuse team is lousy on offense. The Orange entered the NCAA tournament ranked 313th of 351 Division I schools in scoring (67.3 points per game) and 314th in field-goal percentage (41.8). However, with the help of a huge front line that blocks 5.5 shots per game, Syracuse ranked ninth in the country in field-goal percentage defense, allowing opponents to make just 39.6 percent of their shots.

Syracuse shot just 37.8 percent from the field, scored only 57 points and got just seven points from leading scorer Tyus Battle in its first-round game against TCU. But the Orange limited the high-scoring Horned Frogs to just 39.6 percent shooting and 52 points in the win. Arizona State scored just 56 points in its First Four loss to Syracuse.

The Orange have been playing fairly well lately, winning four of their past five games, but their resume does not match up to their second-round opponent, Michigan State. The Spartans were on a 13-game winning streak and ranked No. 2 in the country before they lost to Michigan in the Big Ten semifinals.

Michigan State has displayed a hint of vulnerability lately, though. The Spartans squeaked by ninth-place Wisconsin by three points in their first conference tournament game before losing to Michigan. They dominated Bucknell for much of their NCAA tournament opener but still won by just four points.

If the Spartans struggle against the Syracuse zone, like a lot of teams do in the postseason, the Orange may find their way through to the Sweet 16, where the No. 2-seeded Duke might be awaiting them.

No. 9 Kansas State

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Kansas State is playing good basketball at the moment, but the Wildcats' placement on this list is linked to No. 1 Virginia's elimination.

After its impressive 69-59 victory over Creighton in its first-round game, Kansas State seemed destined to face the Cavaliers in the second round—and the Wildcats would be a definite underdog in that one. Instead, the Wildcats will face UMBC, a team that finished three games out of first place in the America East Conference and has losses to Colgate, Army and Stony Brook, not to mention a 21-point loss to Maryland and a 25-point loss to Arizona.

Somehow, though, the No. 16-seeded Retrievers took out Virginia by the inexplicable score of 74-54.

The Retrievers have won six games in a row, but their feet won't be back on the ground by the time they have to face a solid Kansas State squad. UMBC had made just 38.7 percent of its three-point shots coming into the NCAA tournament, and that was primarily against America East competition.

UMBC cannot expect to be fortunate enough make 50 percent of their long-range shots against Kansas State, as they did against Virginia.

There is nothing spectacular about the Wildcats, but they have won three of their past four games and six of there past nine while experiencing the tough wars of the Big 12.

The Wildcats controlled their first-round game against a pretty good Creighton team, leading by as many as 16 points with less than three minutes to play before cruising home with a 10-point victory. And Kansas State did it without top scorer Dean Wade, who sat out the game with a foot injury.

Wade's absence in the Big 12 semifinal game against Kansas was part of the reason the Wildcats lost that contest by 16 points. The fact Kansas State's second-leading scorer, Barry Brown Jr., did not even play two minutes before leaving that contest with an eye injury did not help, either.

Brown bounced back with 18 points against Creighton, but it seems unlikely Wade will play meaningful minutes against UMBC. As Blair Kerkhoff of the Kansas City Star noted, "He's not ruled out for Sunday, but it's hard to imagine an effective Wade suiting up."

He might be ready for a third-round game against Kentucky or Buffalo, though, and that is when the Wildcats will be shooting for an Elite Eight berth.