NCAA Tournament 2018: Biggest Bracket-Busters Through the First Round
Wow.
Let's not bury the lede here. College basketball history happened Friday night when the University of Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers became the first No. 16 seed to defeat a No. 1 seed in the men's NCAA tournament, toppling the Virginia Cavaliers 74-54 in Charlotte, North Carolina, in the first round.
That's right. The biggest upset in history just happened.
If you were one of the many, many people who picked Virginia to go to the Final Four or farther, take heart. Most people in your pool probably picked the same thing, and it happened because of a brilliant effort from UMBC.
That's the clear headline, but it wasn't the only upset in the round of 64. It wouldn't be March Madness any other way. Some of those upsets put a crack in the dam. Others split it wide-open.
Let's now relive the first two full days of tourney action by revisiting the biggest bracket-busters of the opening round. It will make the next two days that much more exciting.
Teams and seeds appear in ascending order based on the magnitude of their upset. All stats courtesy of ESPN.com unless otherwise noted.
No. 9 Kansas State Wildcats
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Turning point: In the final stretch of the first half, the No. 8 Creighton Bluejays threatened to pull even with the No. 9 Kansas State Wildcats, who had more or less controlled the game to that point.
But just like that, KSU hit a three-pointer and then blocked a shot on the next possession. That block led to a breakaway that ended with Xavier Sneed throwing down a lob and forcing the Bluejays to call timeout. Creighton never seriously threatened again.
Bracket impact: Let's be honest: It wasn't huge. But there was a hidden factor that made this a little more remarkable than it may seem on its face.
Kansas State was closely seeded to Creighton and only wound up a plus-125 underdog, per OddsShark.
What made this significant, though, was the fact the Wildcats entered the game with Dean Wade, their leading scorer, being a late scratch. News came just hours before tipoff that a foot injury would keep Wade on the bench barring an emergency. That made Kansas State a bigger underdog than initial odds would suggest.
Even so, ESPN's bracket data showed Creighton was a clear favorite, with entrants favoring the Blue Jays over the Wildcats by a 56.6 percent margin.
No, this was not a massive upset. But it was significant, particularly because of Wade's absence.
What we'll remember: The play of Barry Brown. KSU's junior guard led all scorers with 18 points, and on defense he smothered Creighton's leading scorer (and KSU transfer) Marcus Foster. Foster finished with five points on 2-of-11 shooting.
What's next: Will two days be enough for Wade's foot to sufficiently heal? Will they need him against the No. 16 Retrievers? The Wildcats would feel more comfortable Sunday with their top guy back in the rotation.
No. 11 Loyola-Chicago Ramblers
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Turning point: It's an easy call. With about one second left, Donte Ingram caught a terrific long pass from Marques Townes and jacked a three-pointer from Stephen Curry range. The buzzer sounded as the ball swished through the hoop.
The Ramblers had to gather themselves after the refs put 0.3 seconds back on the clock, but after No. 6 Miami's desperation toss went begging, the celebration began in earnest.
Bracket impact: According to ESPN.com's bracket statistics, 64.4 percent of entrants picked the Hurricanes to win this game, with 23.4 picking Miami for the Sweet 16. Only 9.5 percent of entrants tabbed the Ramblers to reach the second weekend.
What we'll remember: It was a back-and-forth game, with neither team able to pull away or fully seize the advantage. It went all the way to the buzzer and Ingram's decisive three.
Sister Jean Dolores Schmidt was memorable, too.
What's next: Saturday pits the Ramblers against the No. 3 Tennessee Volunteers for a trip to the South Regional's Sweet 16. These are two deep and defensive-minded teams, and it should be a fun game.
No. 13 Marshall Thundering Herd
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Turning point: With about three minutes left, Jarrod West hit a three-pointer that gave Marshall a 74-70 lead over No. 4 Wichita State. The Shockers never regained the lead. The Thundering Herd hung on to win 81-75 for the program's first-ever NCAA tournament victory.
Bracket impact: This was a big upset. There's no other way to put it. OddsShark favored the Shockers by as much as a minus-1,350 margin.
However, its impact didn't range as far as the other No. 13 upset.
According to data from ESPN.com's bracket HQ, 43.4 percent of entrants picked the Shockers to reach the Sweet 16, 7.8 percent selected them to reach the Elite Eight and 3.8 percent selected them to reach the Final Four.
So the all-important bracket data suggests the upset resulted in a relatively small shake-up for the office pool.
What we'll remember: The Herd's delirious postgame celebration. Led by head coach Dan D'Antoni—yes, he's Houston Rockets head coach Mike D'Antoni's older brother—the team ran and jumped and danced and whooped and hollered. D'Antoni also broke out the T-shirt-blazer combination for the occasion.
Looking good, Coach.
What's next: Marshall has a tall but compelling task in its next contest, facing an in-state rival, the No. 5 West Virginia Mountaineers, on Sunday. After that, the winner of No. 1 seed Villanova and No. 9 Alabama awaits in the East Regional.
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No. 13 Buffalo Bulls
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Turning point: With about 17 minutes remaining, No. 4 Arizona led 46-45. Using their speed and their quickness to confound the Wildcats on both ends of the floor, the Bulls took off, outscoring Arizona 44-22 down the stretch to win 89-68.
Bracket impact: Buffalo sports fans and underdog lovers everywhere got a big reason to cheer when the Bulls ran the Wildcats off the court. Plenty of bracket entrants were less jubilant.
The ESPN bracket data had 58.1 percent of entrants tabbing Arizona for the Sweet 16. Then 23.3 percent sent the Wildcats to the Elite Eight, and 18 percent sent them to the Final Four. Just a shade under 5 percent had Arizona winning the whole thing—only six teams garnered more selections.
According to a tweet from CBS Sports, almost 93 percent of brackets submitted to CBSSports.com picked Arizona to down Buffalo. Nearly 61 percent of pickers had them in the Sweet 16; about 4 percent picked them to go all the way.
Before the game started, OddsShark listed Arizona as a -500 favorite.
People not only failed to see Buffalo coming; they also saw Arizona going far. That easily makes this the second-most impactful upset from the round of 64
What we'll remember: The frustration, then resignation, of Deandre Ayton.
Arizona's forward superfrosh was supposed to be a matchup nightmare for the much smaller Bulls. But Buffalo was tenacious, double- and even triple-teaming Ayton and pressuring the guards to prevent easy passes and looks. He finished with 14 points but needed 13 shots to get there. Both are significantly off his season averages of 20.1 points on 61.2 percent shooting.
"We couldn't get the ball inside," Ayton said, according to Rick Bonnell of the Charlotte Observer. "From the jump, those guys were on us. Their guard play on the defensive end was crazy."
Ayton played a role, though. The Bulls threw the kitchen sink at him, and he just sort of took it. He didn't lie down on the court or anything like that. It was more like a sense of confusion, as if he couldn't understand why they weren't letting him dominate.
That look of capitulation will accompany him all the way to the NBA draft.
What's next: No. 5 Kentucky, which struggled to get past No. 12 Davidson, 78-73, in the first round. It's entirely possible Buffalo can reach the Sweet 16.
No. 16 UMBC Retrievers
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Turning point: In one sense, it was the whole game. This was a turning point for the history of this tournament, puncturing the membrane that had heretofore given No. 1 a free pass and the No. 16 nothing more than a consolation prize.
In a more specific sense, it happened with 3:55 remaining. UMBC star Jairus Lyles hit a jump shot to give the Retrievers a 58-44 lead. On the ensuing UVA possession, UMBC point guard K.J. Maura stole the ball and passed it to Lyles, who found Arkel Lamar for a corner three-pointer.
The lead was then 61-44 with 3:29 remaining. UVA used its last timeout. Ballgame.
Bracket impact: You know as well as I do.
More ESPN amateur bracketologists picked Virginia to win the title—18.5 percent of all entries—than any other team.
OddsShark had the Cavs as a colossal -10,000 favorite on the opening line.
It's a grenade in a broom closet. An old broom closet.
What we'll remember: It's not impossible to overstate the otherworldly play of Lyles. Fighting off cramps in the second half, Lyles carried the Retrievers and torched the nation's best defense for 28 points on 9-of-11 shooting. He tossed in four boards and three assists to boot. This is what "the zone" looks like.
Obviously, you feel bad for UVA, which fell into a hole and then didn't have the offensive firepower to dig itself out. It was like watching an armadillo try to run wind sprints. Its vaunted defense didn't fare much better, with Lyles and Co. routinely finding penetration in a defense specifically designed to prevent just that.
But pointing fingers undermines the sensational play of UMBC and its best player in Lyles, who just became an overnight celebrity.
What's next: No. 9 Kansas State on Sunday, and approximately nine million interviews in the meantime.
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