Big 12 Tournament 2018: Preview and Predictions for Every Team
While the Kansas Jayhawks made it 14 straight years with at least a share of the Big 12 title, the conference as a whole has been wide open all season.
Entering the Big 12 tournament—which starts on Wednesday in Kansas City—nine of the 10 teams in the conference still have legitimate NCAA tournament hopes.
Joe Lunardi of ESPN projects eight bids for the conference with the following seeding:
- (1) Kansas
- (4) Texas Tech
- (4) West Virginia
- (6) TCU
- (10) Kansas State
- (10) Oklahoma
- (11) Baylor
- (11) Texas
A lot can still change before Selection Sunday, though.
Ahead is a full breakdown of the Big 12 tournament, with team overviews and predictions on how the field will play out.
10. Iowa State (13-17, 4-14)
1 of 10
First matchup: No. 7 Texas (Wednesday, 9 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Lose first game
Iowa State is the only Big 12 team without a shot at reaching the NCAA tournament after a 4-14 showing in conference play.
However, the Cyclones can't be taken lightly with wins over Texas Tech, West Virginia and Oklahoma on the resume, as well as a neutral-site victory over a quality Boise State team during the nonconference play.
Still, with Nick Weiler-Babb and Solomon Young both out for the season with knee injuries, the Texas Longhorns are going to be a handful in the opening round.
An early tournament exit brings to a close a trying season, but there's plenty of reason for optimism going forward with freshmen Lindell Wigginton (16.6 PPG, 2.9 APG) and Cameron Lard (12.5 PPG, 8.2 RPG) both turning in impressive debut performances and the aforementioned Weiler-Babb likely to return for his senior season.
9. Oklahoma (18-12, 8-10)
2 of 10
First matchup: No. 8 Oklahoma State (Wednesday, 7 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Lose first game
Once ranked as high as No. 4 in the AP poll, Oklahoma stumbled through a 1-7 month of February to slide all the way to the NCAA tournament bubble.
The Sooners have won two of three with victories over Kansas State and Iowa State at home, but they still have something to prove to the selection committee and a tough opening-round draw in Oklahoma State awaiting.
The two teams split the regular-season meetings, with the Sooners picking up a decisive 109-89 victory at home on Jan. 3 and then losing 83-81 in Stillwater on Jan. 20.
While Trae Young exploded for 48 points in that losing effort, the X-factor could be fellow freshman Brady Manek. He led the Sooners with 28 points in the first meeting but was held in check with just eight points on 3-of-10 shooting in the loss.
In the end, the Cowboys come out on top as they look to further pad a rapidly improving tournament resume.
8. Oklahoma State (18-13, 8-10)
3 of 10
First matchup: No. 9 Oklahoma (Wednesday, 7 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Win one game, then lose to Kansas (1) in quarterfinals
Oklahoma State enters the tournament as one of the hottest teams in the Big 12.
The Cowboys have won three of four, including victories over Texas Tech and Kansas who were both ranked No. 6 in the AP poll at the time those games were played.
With that, their RPI has climbed to 87 and they've at least returned to a precarious position on the bubble.
Keeping that momentum rolling with a win over Oklahoma in the opening round would add another quality win to the resume, setting up a quarterfinals meeting with Kansas.
The Cowboys scored a decisive 82-64 win in Stillwater over the Jayhawks on Saturday, holding Big 12 Player of the Year Devonte' Graham in check (4-of-14 shooting, 15 PTS), while Kendall Smith (25 PTS) paced four players in double figures.
However, Kansas has more on its mind in this game than just revenge, with a No. 1 seed in the tournament still within reach, and the Jayhawks take care of business with a big win.
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7. Texas (18-13, 8-10)
4 of 10
First matchup: No. 10 Iowa State (Wednesday, 9 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Win one game, then lose to Texas Tech (2) in quarterfinals
After going 11-22 with a 4-14 record in conference play last season, the Texas Longhorns have been vastly improved in season three with Shaka Smart in the coach's seat.
Freshman standout Mohamed Bamba (13.0 PPG, 10.6 RPG, 3.8 BPG) gets the bulk of the headlines as a likely lottery pick, but the team has a well-balanced offensive attack with four players averaging at least 12 points per game.
That said, Bamba is nursing a toe injury that has kept him out of action the past two games, so his health will be a major factor.
An opening-round win over Iowa State would set up a meeting with No. 2 seed Texas Tech.
The two teams split during the regular season, with the Red Raiders squeezing out a 73-71 win at home on Jan. 31.
A healthy Keenan Evans on the Tech side and a banged-up Bamba is enough for the Longhorns to go one-and-done.
6. Baylor (18-13, 8-10)
5 of 10
First matchup: No. 3 West Virginia (Thursday, 9:30 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Lose first game
It's been an up and down season for the Baylor Bears.
A 10-2 showing in nonconference play was followed by a brutal 2-7 start to Big 12 play.
However, a five-game winning streak that included victories over Kansas and Texas Tech vaulted them back into the NCAA tournament picture, and they're still part of the projected field despite closing out the regular season with a 1-3 stretch.
Point guard Manu Lecomte (15.7 PPG, 3.6 APG) and 7-footer Jo Lual-Acuil Jr. (14.4 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 1.8 BPG) lead a veteran group that features four seniors and two juniors among the eight-man rotation.
While they managed to avoid a bottom-four spot in the conference standings, there's still a tough draw waiting in West Virginia to kick off Big 12 tournament action.
The Mountaineers won both regular-season meetings—a 57-54 victory on Jan. 9 and a 71-60 win on Feb. 20—and as they chase a better seed in the NCAA tournament, they'll be plenty motivated to finish the season sweep.
5. TCU (21-10, 9-9)
6 of 10
First matchup: No. 4 Kansas State (Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Win two games, then lose to Texas Tech (2) in finals
While TCU went 0-4 against Kansas and Texas Tech during the regular season, the Horned Frogs still put together an impressive NCAA tournament resume.
Non-conference wins over Nevada (RPI: 13) and St. Bonaventure (RPI: 22), and a 9-5 showing against the rest of the Big 12 is enough for a projected 6-seed as things stand.
A strong run in the Big 12 tournament could improve that by at least a couple spots.
The Horned Frogs closed out the regular season with a 5-2 stretch, including a 66-59 win over quarterfinals opponent Kansas State.
A win in that game would set up a potential meeting with Kansas in the semifinals, and that's where we're predicting the biggest upset of the tournament.
Despite losing both regular-season meetings, the Horned Frogs played them close both times with an 88-84 loss on Jan. 6 and a 71-64 defeat on Feb. 6.
A high-powered offense that ranked second in the conference with 83.6 points per game will carry TCU into the championship game and move them up to at least a No. 5 seed on Selection Sunday.
4. Kansas State (21-10, 10-8)
7 of 10
First matchup: No. 5 TCU (Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Lose first game
Led by All-Big 12 first-teamer Dean Wade (16.7 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 2.8 APG) and second-teamer Barry Brown (16.6 PPG, 3.5 APG), Kansas State finished with a 10-8 record in conference play.
However, the Wildcats went 0-6 against the top dogs in the conference—Kansas, Texas Tech and West Virginia—and the only nonconference top-100 RPI win on its resume came against Georgia (81).
They're technically the higher seed in the opening-round matchup with TCU, but the Horned Frogs will be favored.
The two teams won their respective home games during the regular season, with the Wildcats scoring a 73-68 victory on Jan. 20—one of just five games all season that TCU was held under 70 points.
The Horned Frogs offense will be too much this time around, though, as the Wildcats are bumped in the quarterfinals.
3. West Virginia (22-9, 11-7)
8 of 10
First matchup: No. 6 Baylor (Thursday, 9:30 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Win one game, then lose to Texas Tech (2) in semifinals
A three-game losing streak at the end of January sent West Virginia tumbling down the AP rankings, but the Mountaineers have gone 6-3 since and are eyeing a potential No. 2/3 seed in the NCAA tournament with a run in Kansas City.
With Wooden Award finalist and Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Jevon Carter (17.0 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 6.5 APG) leading the way and 6'8" rim protector Sagaba Konate (10.8 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 3.4 BPG) also making his presence felt, Baylor will be overmatched in the quarterfinals.
However, Texas Tech is a tough draw in the semifinals.
The two teams split during the regular season, but West Virginia's win came on Feb. 26 when Keenan Evans—the Red Raiders' leading scorer—was sidelined with a toe injury.
He's back healthy now and that will be enough to propel Texas Tech to victory.
2. Texas Tech (23-8, 11-7)
9 of 10
First matchup: No. 7 Texas/No. 10 Iowa State winner (Thursday, 7 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Win the Big 12 tournament
Texas Tech was the No. 6 team in the country in the middle of February, but a four-game losing streak sent them sliding down the rankings.
Those struggles can be directly linked to the health of leading scorer Keenan Evans, who was nursing a toe injury during that stretch of games.
- Feb. 17 (Baylor): 18 minutes, 1/6 shooting, 4 points
- Feb. 21 (Oklahoma State): 25 minutes, 1/7 shooting, 2 points
- Feb. 24 (Kansas): 31 minutes, 1/4 shooting, 6 points
- Feb. 26 (West Virginia): Did not play
After sitting out the West Virginia game, Evans returned to action on Saturday against TCU, scoring 23 points on 6-of-11 shooting and 5-of-8 from beyond the arc.
Simply put, the Red Raiders are a different team when Evans is at 100 percent.
And now they're set to peak at the right time.
Winning the Big 12 tournament might be enough to vault them to a No. 2 seed on Selection Sunday, depending on how the other conference tournaments shake out.
1. Kansas (24-7, 13-5)
10 of 10
First matchup: No. 8 Oklahoma State/No. 9 Oklahoma winner (3 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Win one game, then lose to TCU (5) in semifinals
Despite adding another conference title, making it 14 straight years, this year's Kansas team has not been as dominant as squads we've seen in years past.
That was never more evident than in an 82-64 loss to Oklahoma State on Saturday.
Still, this is a very good team, and there's a reason they're in the hunt for a No. 1 seed.
Big 12 Player of the Year Devonte' Graham (17.6 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 7.2 APG), sharp-shooter Svi Mykhailiuk (15.3 PPG, 45.1 3PT%) and 7-foot behemoth Udoka Azubuike (13.7 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 1.8 BPG) gave the team legitimate star power, albeit with a thin rotation.
The Jayhawks have won the Big 12 tournament seven times during their impressive run of regular-season conference titles.
A semifinals exit against TCU keeps that number from climbing to eight.
All stats courtesy of Sports Reference, unless otherwise noted.
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