Fantasy Baseball 2018: Sleepers, Busts and Final MLB Mock Draft
Everyone has certain tools and traits they look for in players in fantasy baseball. It helps to determine potential breakout stars who can be found late in the draft, or help weed out overrated talents to avoid because they will be selected too high.
In the final hours before the 2018 Major League Baseball season begins, there is still time to examine some of the less heralded players who can carry your team to victory and ignore players whose draft position won't match their production.
These are simple hard-and-fast rules to follow in an effort to avoid being left behind by the rest of your fantasy league competitors.
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12-Team Fantasy Mock Draft
1. Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels
2. Jose Altuve, 2B, Houston Astros
3. Bryce Harper, OF, Washington Nationals
4. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks
5. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies
6. Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds
7. Charlie Blackmon, OF, Colorado Rockies
8. Jose Ramirez, 3B, Cleveland Indians
9. Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros
10. Mookie Betts, OF, Boston Red Sox
11. Kris Bryant, 3B, Chicago Cubs
12. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Fantasy Sleeper (Pitcher): Sean Manaea, Oakland Athletics
Through two full MLB seasons, Sean Manaea has been perfectly acceptable by real-world standards. The 26-year-old owns a 19-19 record and 4.12 ERA in 303.1 innings for the Oakland Athletics.
By fantasy standards, those numbers make it difficult to project a significant role for Manaea in 2018.
The biggest key for Manaea to transform from a back-end arm to a potential No. 2 starter is his slider, as noted by CBS Sports' Chris Towers:
"Manaea has consistently posted strong swinging strike rates and racked up 27 strikeouts to just seven walks in May last season when he also threw his slider 25 percent of the time, much higher than normal. His feel for that pitch seems to come and go, but if Manaea can harness it, he's already shown it can be a weapon."
Manaea used his slider on 17.7 percent of his pitches last season, per FanGraphs. Opposing hitters only had a .274 slugging percentage against his slider, compared to .439 against his fastball and .466 against his changeup, per Brooks Baseball.
There is a glimmer of hope Manaea can harness his breaking ball into a consistently workable offering to get hitters out, as he did during that hot streak last May.
Fantasy owners who need a usable starter with upside in the latter rounds of the draft should be quick to jump on Manaea, because he's flashed potential on occasion that he can tap into next season.
Fantasy Sleeper (Hitter): Dansby Swanson, SS, Atlanta Braves
Based on how quickly everyone jumped off Dansby Swanson's bandwagon last season, it's easy to forget that he's less than three years removed from being the No. 1 overall pick in the MLB draft.
After a promising 38-game audition with the Atlanta Braves at the end of 2016 (.803 OPS), Swanson was a mess last season. The Vanderbilt product hit .232/.312/.324 with 31 extra-base hits in 144 games.
In ranking Swanson as the No. 2 overall prospect in MLB last season, Jeffrey Paternostro of Baseball Prospectus offered this scouting report on his hit tool:
"In those 129 at-bats, he posted a .800 OPS despite only a half season of experience in the high minors. And it sure looked sustainable. The swing is simple, and he uses the big part of the park. He can go the other way naturally with a bit of inside-out. Overall, it’s a plus hit tool, and he could have some full seasons where he hits .300. The approach is already solid considering his dearth of experience against upper-level arms."
The Braves need to see if Swanson is a part of their long-term future, so he should be given every opportunity to start when the season begins. He's had an offseason to make adjustments to his swing and approach that will get him back to what worked in 2016.
Per Yahoo Fantasy Sports, Swanson is being drafted near the end of the 22nd round. It's a fair spot given his lack of production in 2017, but it makes him a potential steal because there was enough talent in the hit tool to get him drafted first overall in 2015 and hit .302 in his brief MLB debut two years ago.
Fantasy Bust (Pitcher): Jon Lester, Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs manager Joe Maddon announced early in spring training that Jon Lester would be his starter on Opening Day.
It's not an indication of Lester's ability anymore. The 34-year-old appears to be on the verge of hitting the wall that comes with age. His 4.33 ERA last year was the second-highest of his career in a season with at least 100 innings pitched (4.82 in 2012).
Beyond an inflated ERA, Lester's average fastball velocity of 91.1 mph was his lowest since 2007, when he returned late in the season after receiving successful treatment for lymphoma.
His home run-to-fly ball ratio of 15.8 percent was the highest of his career, and his home-run rate ballooned from 0.93 in 2016 to 1.30.
The combination of age and performance indicates Lester is nearing his last days as a valuable starting pitcher in fantasy.
Lester's average draft position of 107.1 in Yahoo fantasy leagues is higher than David Price (112.3) and Marcus Stroman (146.4). He's not better than either of those options at this point in his career.
Fantasy Bust (Hitter): Ryan Zimmerman, 1B, Washington Nationals
Ryan Zimmerman's career appeared to be over prior to the 2017 season. He played a total of 271 out of 486 games with a .242/.300/.420 slash line from 2014-16.
After struggling to stay healthy, Zimmerman finally avoided injuries last year and returned to form. The Washington Nationals star hit .303/.358/.573 with a career-high 36 homers and 108 RBI in 144 games.
Fantasy owners have responded to Zimmerman's resurgence by drafting him (127.3) over Matt Carpenter (134.7) and Marwin Gonzalez (152.2) in Yahoo leagues.
CBS Sports' Scott White noted a lot of Zimmerman's 2017 performance was inflated by a strong start and unsustainable batting average on balls in play:
"It was a built on a .364 BABIP. Zimmerman's second half, meanwhile, was built on a .299 BABIP, much more in line with his career .311 mark, and he hit .269 with 17 home runs. It averaged out to 3.09 Fantasy points per game—or about what (Justin) Smoak averaged over a full season. If that's the more likely level of production for him, I don't know that it's worth even a mid-round pick."
It's also hard to be optimistic about a 33-year-old with an injury history as long as Zimmerman's. Power at first base isn't difficult to come by, so put your draft chips on a player with a track record of playing at least 140-150 games every season.
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