Stock Up, Stock Down for the Top NBA Prospects in College Basketball

It's almost March, and the NCAA tournament is usually a time when we put way too much stock into how a draft pick performs and how it affects his stock.

By this point in the year, NBA teams should know who they like and why. It's certainly possible to move up draft boards based on tourney play, but most teams are wary of putting too much stock into such a small sample size.

This is a good year to be in the lottery, and most of the top prospects have performed well this season. I took a look at who most scouts would deem the top 10 prospects in the college game and whether their stocks have gone up, down or stayed the same based on preseason expectations.

Editor's note: All advanced stats were pulled from KenPom.com. 

10. Collin Sexton, Alabama

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Numbers That Matter: 18.2, 3.6 rpg, 3.5 apg, 56.5 FT rate, 109.1 offensive rating

NBA Appeal: Sexton is probably the safest point guard pick in the draft. Trae Young might have more upside, but he could also have more downside because of his frame. Sexton's body and athleticism are more in line with what usually works these days in the NBA. He's a blur with the basketball and works well out of the pick-and-roll.

He hasn't shot the ball from the beyond the arc, especially in conference play (25.8 percent), but his jumper is better right now than a lot of former super athletic lottery pick point guards (John Wall, Derrick Rose, Mike Conley and Russell Westbrook) when they were freshmen. 

Stock: Even

Sexton has mostly lived up to expectations. He hasn't been as good in SEC play as he was earlier in the year, but he can be a solid setup man, score and get to the free-throw line driving the ball.

9. Miles Bridges, Michigan State

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Numbers That Matter: 16.9 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 2.8 apg, 89.8 FT%, 36.0 3-pt%, 117.5 offensive rating 

NBA Appeal: Bridges has the athleticism and is a good enough shooter to play on the wing in the NBA, but what makes him most intriguing is his ability to play a small-ball 4. He’s played mostly on the perimeter this season because of Michigan State’s depth up front, and that’s one reason he hasn’t lived up to preseason expectations when he was the popular pick to win National Player of the Year.

Stock: Down

Bridges’ stock hasn’t dropped much—he’s still likely a lottery pick—but the hope from coming back to school was that he’d jump into the top five. He doesn’t profile to be a primary scorer in the NBA, but he’s going to be a difficult matchup because of his unique frame and bounce for such a thick guy.

8. Wendell Carter Jr., Duke

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Numbers That Matter: 14.6 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 2.2 bpg, 50.0% 3PT%, 124.8 offensive rating

NBA Appeal: Carter is not as athletic as some of the bigs in front of him, but he's probably the most skilled. He's an excellent scorer from the blocks and comfortably slides out to the perimeter to knock down jumpers. He doesn't take a lot of threes, but he's shooting 50 percent and is also proficient from the mid-range.

Stock: Even

There would probably be more buzz around Carter if he didn't play alongside Marvin Bagley III. There will be some questions about his athleticism, particularly on the defensive end. He's had some struggles defending outside the paint this year. His offense should not be a concern. He's a savvy scorer who is going to figure out how to get buckets in the NBA.

7. Mikal Bridges, Villanova

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Numbers That Matter: 17.2 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 1.6 spg, 41.9 3PT%, 127.0 offensive rating

NBA Appeal: At 6'7" with a 7'2" wingspan, Bridges is the prototypical three-and-D wing. He's an excellent defender who could step foot in an NBA game today and feel comfortable. He's turned himself into a good shooter and improved his playmaking off the bounce this season.

Stock: Up

Bridges is a redshirt junior, so you'll hear a lot of talk about there not being a lot of upside. Ignore that. He's improved every year at Villanova, and guys who come out of that program are workers who know how to play the game. The players who make leaps in the NBA are the workers. He's still only 21. He's going to get better.

There's a lot to like about Bridges from his length to his tools. It's not easy to find wings who can guard and shoot like he can.

6. Jaren Jackson Jr., Michigan State

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Numbers That Matter: 11.4 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 118.1 offensive rating, 14.7 blk%

NBA Appeal: Jackson is a perfect fit in today's NBA. He's a terrific athlete with skill who can shoot the ball. It's silly to think he's making 41.6 percent of his threes as a 6'11" freshman. Defensively, he's an excellent shot blocker who can also defend out on the perimeter. He's probably the best defensive big man in the draft. Only Mo Bamba has a higher upside on that end.

Stock: Up

Jackson's upside is as high as anyone's in this draft. He hasn't produced at the level of the players currently in front of him, but he also plays for a team with a stacked frontcourt and for a coach who typically doesn't rush freshmen along. He's also only 18 and will not turn 19 until September. If he kills it in the NCAA tournament, he could move up on draft boards.

5. Michael Porter Jr., Missouri

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Numbers That Matter: N/A

NBA Appeal: Porter has played only one college game, but scouts saw enough from him on the all-star circuit to know that he has potential to be a future star in the NBA. He's 6'10" with a picture-perfect jumper and 2-guard skills. Plus, he's an elite athlete. Had he played this season and not had surgery—a microdiscectomy of the L3-L4 spinal discs on Nov. 21—he likely would have been in contention to be the No. 1 pick.

Stock: Down

Porter isn't going to fall too low unless NBA doctors put up a red flag. But his back is going to be a concern, even though he was cleared last Thursday to return to the floor. It's still unknown if he will play for Missouri down. If he does, his stock could move depending on how he looks.

4. Mohamed Bamba, Texas

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Numbers That Matter: 13.0 ppg, 10.6 rpg, 3.8 bpg, 26.5 3PT%, 113.8 offensive rating

NBA Appeal: Bamba has a chance to be one of the best defenders in the NBA. He has a 7'9" wingspan and he's bouncy for his size. There's no doubt his shot-blocking will translate. Offensively, he's more of a project, but one with upside. He's a great passer for a big man. He's not a good shooter yet, but his form is good and he looks comfortable shooting the ball. He also has soft hands and is one of the best alley-oop targets in college basketball.

Stock: Even

Bamba has long been considered a top-five pick in the 2018 draft. He's steadily improved his game and frame. He still needs to get stronger, but he has just about everything else you'd want in a center prospect. There are at least four players in this draft that, in most years, teams would be satisfied with at No. 1. Bamba is one of those guys.

3. Trae Young, Oklahoma

Garett Fisbeck/Associated Press

Numbers That Matter: 28.3 ppg, 9.1 apg, 37.5 3PT%, 115.0 offensive rating 

NBA Appeal: Ridiculous range and an imagination with the basketball are what makes Young so appealing. Yes, there is some Stephen Curry to his game, and it's probably not fair to put that kind of expectations on him, but the team that drafts him will likely be convinced that's his ceiling. 

Stock: Up

Young's stock is way up from before the season, when no one was sure he'd be a one-and-done guy or even a first-round pick. Now he's close to a lock as a lottery pick.

A recent slump has probably made NBA teams take a closer look and consider the fact that it could take Young some time to acclimate to the NBA game. He needs to improve his frame, similar to how Curry has. His efficiency numbers took a big dip recently, and it could be that he's worn down some, and the NBA season is much more of a grind than the college year.

Defensively, Young struggles at the college level, and that's probably the biggest concern NBA teams have with him. He has good instincts, but he's going to have to get bigger, faster and stronger to become a solid NBA defender. Still, it's not often someone with his shooting ability and vision comes along. There's a lot to like about his potential down the road.

2. Marvin Bagley III, Duke

Gerry Broome/Associated Press

Numbers That Matter: 21.1 ppg, 11.2 rpg, 35.4 3PT%, 121.9 offensive rating

NBA Appeal: Bagley is going to rebound at a high level as soon as he gets in the league, and his offensive game has a lot of potential. There's some Ben Simmons to his game in that he's a lefty with the ball skills of a guard. He doesn't have the passing acumen or feel that Simmons does, but he is equipped with a jump shot that is likely to get better over time. Bagley has the grab-and-go rebounding ability that makes him a terrific transition weapon. He's also athletic enough to eventually be a big man who can guard multiple positions, although he's struggled guarding on the perimeter in college more than was expected.

Stock: Even

Bagley has been awesome at Duke, but his stock is probably right around where most scouts anticipated to start the year. He's not super long—he has a 7-foot wingspan—so his defensive ceiling isn't super high.

Right now, he relies a lot on his athleticism to score. He simply jumps over defenders and throws in jump hooks. That'll get harder at the NBA level, but he's a guy who should soak up skill work, and his quickness and ability to handle the ball make him a matchup problem. He would be the No. 1 pick in a lot of drafts, and a team is probably going to get him third or fourth in this one.

1. DeAndre Ayton, Arizona

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Numbers that matter: 19.9 ppg, 11.2 rpg, 2.0 bpg, 75.3 FT%, 32.3 3PT %, 127.3 offensive rating

NBA appeal: Ayton is going to be a dominant offensive force, no matter how the game evolves during his career. He could be a throwback big man who scores from the post. He's comfortable with his back to the basket, and his strength allows him to get the ball in prime spots to score.

In the space-and-pace game, he's an excellent shooter for his size and can even knock down a three. His range will likely expand over time. He's excellent in the pick-and-roll, because he can finish lobs when he dives to rim and also knock down jumpers. His biggest weakness is probably his defense and low shot-blocking numbers, but he has the frame, quickness and length to eventually become a weapon on that end.

Stock: Up

Ayton is the best big-man prospect since Joel Embiid. He's further along right now than Embiid was, although he might not have the same feel for the game as the 76ers star. Still, he's as safe a pick in this draft as you can make. It'd be shocking if he fell below the top two.