Dark Horses to Watch in College Basketball Power Conference Tournaments

The favorites in the power-conference tournaments typically are easy to identify. The challenge is to spot the sleepers—the teams lurking in the background that is capable of pulling a surprise or two and advancing deep into the NCAA tournament.

A number of factors can make a team a sleeper, whether it be a late-season surge, the return of a key player, a favorable tournament matchup or the absence of a dominant team.

For our purposes, a sleeper is classified as a team seeded fifth or lower that looks to have a chance to reach the final of its conference tournament.

We identified six such sleepers in men's basketball, with two from the wide-open Southeastern Conference tournament and another being an obvious long shot.

Texas A&M

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Regular-season rundown 

Player absences plagued Texas A&M (20-11, 9-9 SEC) during the regular season. Leading scorer Tyler Davis is the only one of the Aggies' top six scorers who did not miss at least three games because of injuries or team suspensions.

Ten different players started at least four games each as head coach Billy Kennedy shuffled his lineups. The Aggies had an impressive start to their season, beating West Virginia by 23 points on their way to an 11-1 start and a No. 5 national ranking. The only loss in that span was by three points to Arizona in Phoenix.

The fun ended when player absences led to Texas A&M losing its first five conference games, quickly putting it out of the SEC title race. The Aggies rebounded to finish 9-5 as players returned to action. However, they played the final seven games without guard Duane Wilson, who suffered a season-ending knee injury, but the rest of the team is healthy.

Recent form 

The Aggies won their final three games over Vanderbilt, Georgia and Alabama, and they are becoming more consistent with most of their key players back in action.

Athletic Robert Williams leads the conference in rebounds per game (9.0) and is second in blocks per game (2.5), but he has not been effective lately, averaging just 5.0 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.3 blocks and 17.3 minutes over the final three games. The 6'10" Davis has been the Aggies' most productive player lately, averaging 20.0 points and 9.3 rebounds over the last four games.

Title chances

Most of the pieces that helped the Aggies to a No. 5 ranking in January are in place, and that could lead to a deep run in the SEC tournament.

The eighth-seeded Aggies open play Thursday against Alabama, which Texas A&M beat on Saturday. Next, the Aggies would face top-seeded Auburn, a team the Aggies beat on the road in their only meeting this season. If the Aggies win that one, they would have nearly a 50-50 chance of winning in the final two rounds.

Arizona State

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Regular-season rundown

Arizona State (20-10, 8-10 Pac-12) was the talk of men's college basketball in the nonconference season. Picked in the Pac-12 preseason media poll to finish sixth, the Sun Devils won their first 12 games, including a 16-point win over Xavier in Las Vegas and a 10-point win over Kansas on the Jayhawks' home court.

The Sun Devils entered Pac-12 play ranked No. 3 in the country. But things fell apart in conference play. Arizona State lost its first two Pac-12 games and never fully recovered.

Tra Holder, who scored 40 points against Xavier and 29 against Kansas, had an erratic conference season. He did not score a single point in the Sun Devils' 75-68 loss at Oregon on Feb. 22. The same goes for Shannon Evans II. He scored 22 points in each of the big wins against Xavier and Kansas, but in the two losses to Arizona, the guard tallied 12 points on 5-of-26 shooting.

Despite Arizona State's struggles in conference play, ESPN.com, CBSSports.com and USA Today all have the Sun Devils as one of three Pac-12 teams in their projected NCAA tournament fields.

Recent form 

The Sun Devils limped to the finish, losing four of their final five games as Evans and Holder each shot 34.9 percent from the field. The only win during that span came against last-place California in Tempe. Arizona State followed that up with a home loss to Stanford in the regular-season finale.

The team's frustrations were reflected on Feb. 24 by coach Bobby Hurley, who was fined $10,000 by the league for confronting officials following the loss to Oregon State.

Title chances

The way the Sun Devils finished the season does not suggest success in the Pac-12 tournament. But a closer look at their conference results indicates they had a chance to win nearly every game. None of ASU's losses was by a double-digit margin, and five were by four points or fewer.

Its most lopsided loss was a nine-point defeat at Stanford, and that was a two-point game with four minutes left. If the Devils can recapture some of the mojo they had against Xavier and Kansas and if Holder and Evans find their shooting touch, Arizona State can beat anyone in the Pac-12, which lacks a dominant team.

The ninth-seeded Sun Devils open conference tournament play Wednesday in Las Vegas against Colorado; the two split their two games, with the Sun Devils winning by 14 points in the most recent meeting. Next would be a quarterfinal game against regular-season champion Arizona, which won both of their games during the season—but both were close. The Sun Devils were within two points with a minute left in the first meeting, and the second was tied with less than four minutes remaining.

Notre Dame

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Regular-season rundown 

Notre Dame (19-13, 8-10 ACC) essentially had two seasons, one with Bonzie Colson and one without him. With Colson, the Fighting Irish were 13-4, including a win over Wichita State and a 2-1 record in the ACC. The only conference loss was a five-point defeat against ACC champion Virginia on the Cavaliers' home court. Without Colson, the Irish went 6-9, including a seven-game losing streak.

Notre Dame is a different team when it has Colson, the preseason ACC player of the year who is averaging 20.7 points and 10.3 rebounds per game.

Recent form 

The Irish have six wins in their last nine games following the seven-game losing streak. More significant is that Colson has played the last three games after missing 15 games due to a fractured foot. He played 21 minutes and scored 12 points in his first game back, a 73-56 victory over Pittsburgh, and he had 24 points and 15 rebounds while playing 37 minutes in the regular-season finale at Virginia. In Tuesday's 67-64 win over Pitt in the first round of the ACCs, Colson scored a game-high 19 points in 33 minutes. 

Title chances

With Colson back, the Irish are armed with one of the best players in the country. His presence also increases the team's confidence and energy level, as indicated by Saturday's showing at Virginia, which was a two-point game with a minute remaining. The Irish need a deep run in the conference tournament to get an NCAA tournament berth, and they are capable of doing just that with Colson on board.

The 10th-seeded Irish face the seventh-seeded Virginia Tech at 7 p.m. ET Wednesday. The Hokies beat Notre Dame by five points during the regular season with Colson sidelined. A win against Va Tech would mean a quarterfinal game against second-seeded Duke.

Virginia, Duke and North Carolina remain the ACC tournament favorites, and Notre Dame would have to win two more games than any of those three to capture the tournament title. But Notre Dame, with Colson back, is practically on par with those teams now, and it has an outside shot to take the ACC tournament title at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn.

TCU

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Regular-season rundown

TCU (21-10, 9-9 Big 12) won its first 12 games of the season and rose to No. 10 in the rankings under second-year head coach Jamie Dixon. Things turned bleak in conference play, however, as the Horned Frogs lost four of their first five games. Starting point guard Jaylen Fisher had season-ending knee surgery on Jan. 18, and that contributed to TCU's midseason slump.

Things improved, and TCU won five of its final seven games to finish fifth in the conference. For the first time since it entered the Big 12, the Horned Frogs did not finish with a losing conference record. 

TCU's best victory was an 82-73 victory over West Virginia on Jan. 22 when the Mountaineers were ranked No. 7.

Recent form 

TCU won four of its last five games, and a four-point loss at Texas Tech in the regular-season finale prevented the Horned Frogs from entering the Big 12 tournament on a five-game winning streak. The Frogs led the Big 12 in field-goal percentage (50.0 percent) and assists per game (18.9) but shot under 45 percent and had fewer than 15 assists in each of their final two games.

Versatile 6'11" Vladimir Brodziansky is their top scorer, but guard Desmond Bane has been their most productive player recently, averaging 19.8 points over the final four games.

Title chances

TCU lost seven conference games by five points or fewer, and it won't take much to turn that around. With Kansas and West Virginia both losing their final regular-season games and Texas Tech losing four of its final five games, the Big 12 favorites have demonstrated a vulnerability that TCU can take advantage of.

As the fifth seed of the Big 12 tournament in Kansas City, TCU gets a bye into the quarterfinals, where it will face Kansas State on Thursday. That will be a challenge, not only because the teams split their two regular-season games, but because K-State, which is about a two-hour drive from Sprint Center, is likely to have considerably more crowd support.

If they get past that game, the Horned Frogs likely will face top-seeded Kansas in the semifinals. KU swept the season series, but both games came down to the wire. The Horned Frogs could sneak into the Big 12 title game.

Missouri

Associated Press

Michael Porter Jr. (right)

Regular-season rundown 

Missouri (20-11, 10-8 SEC) has had a streaky season, with a three-game losing streak followed by a five-game winning streak; there was another three-game skid before it won its final two games. Its SEC record in Cuonzo Martin's first season as head coach is the Tigers' first winning conference mark since 2013 and represents a major improvement over last season's 2-16 SEC record under Kim Anderson.

A home loss to Mississippi on Feb. 20 and a neutral-court loss to Illinois on Dec. 23 were the low points, although they were countered by wins over Tennessee, Kentucky and Arkansas, all at home.

However, Missouri is on this list of sleepers because of a player who has seen just two minutes of court time this season. That is freshman Michael Porter Jr., the nation's No. 2 recruit in the class of 2017, according to ESPN.com and 247Sports.

Porter missed the start of the season because of a back injury that required surgery, but there is a good chance he will return for the SEC tournament, according to Jeff Goodman and Myron Medcalf of ESPN.com.

Recent form 

Although Missouri played poorly in its 21-point road loss to Kentucky on Feb. 24, it responded with two good wins at the end of the regular season: an eight-point road win against Vanderbilt and a 10-point home victory over Arkansas.

Kassius Robertson and Jordan Barnett, the team's top two scorers, have been hot from the perimeter lately. Robertson made 45.2 percent of his three-pointers (19 of 42) over the final five games, and Barnett hit 55.0 percent of his shots from distance (22 of 40) in that span.

Title chances

It's unknown how much Porter will be able to play and how effective he will be after such a long layoff. But the Tigers should get an emotional boost in any case, and Porter should get better if Missouri advances.

The fifth-seeded Tigers get a first-round bye, then play the winner of the Georgia-Vanderbilt game in their first game Thursday. Missouri played each of those teams once during the season and won both.

A win would put Mizzou into the quarterfinals against Kentucky, and those two split a pair of regular-season games. MU's semifinal opponent would be top-seeded Auburn, which won by 18 points on Jan. 24, or Texas A&M. But Auburn is not the team it was two months ago, having lost three of its final five games. Missouri split two games with Texas A&M.

Missouri has a chance to reach the final, especially if Porter plays—and plays well.

St. John's

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Regular-season rundown 

St. John's started the season 8-1, thanks largely to a soft schedule. The Red Storm then lost their first 11 Big East games and ended up 15-16 overall and 4-14 in the Big East, tied with DePaul for last place.

Guard Shamorie Ponds is the leading scorer at 21.6 points per game, but he is a poor three-point shooter (26.7 percent). The loss of Marcus LoVett hurt. He averaged 14.9 points before being lost for the season with a knee injury after just seven games. 

St. John's has finished last, eighth and last in the Big East in Chris Mullin's three seasons as head coach.

Recent form 

The Red Storm finished strong, winning five of their final eight games, and that included wins over Duke, Villanova (on the road) and Butler.

They played their final two games, including the loss to Providence in the finale, without Ponds, who sat out with an abdominal injury. He averaged 29.1 points in his last six games, but it is unclear whether he will play in the conference tournament. Zach Braziller of the New York Post reported Ponds was scheduled to practice Monday to see how he feels.

Title chances

Granted, it is a reach to consider the Red Storm a sleeper. Logic says a team that finished last and suffered an 11-game losing streak has no chance in the Big East tournament. Villanova and Xavier are the favorites, and St. John's would be hard-pressed to beat either one in a tournament setting.

But consider two things. First, St. John's is playing its best basketball of the season, and victories over Duke and Villanova have to give the players the belief they can beat anyone. Second, the Big East tournament is at Madison Square Garden, the Red Storm's second home. They have played 11 home games there over the past two seasons, and that includes the win over Duke.

If Ponds doesn't play in the Big East tournament, all bets are off. Georgetown, which beat St. John's in two tight games during the Storm's 11-game losing streak, is the Storm's opening-round opponent Wednesday. If St. John's wins that game, its quarterfinal opponent would be top-seeded Xavier, which also pulled out two close wins over the Red Storm during their skid.

Winning the Big East tournament is a lot to ask, but reaching the semifinals is not out of the question if Ponds plays.