March Madness 2018 Predictions: Best Upset Picks for Every Region

If you're looking for chalk, go find a classroom or a sidewalk. We're not interested in that for the NCAA tournament, where chaos isn't just expected—it's welcomed.

When it comes to the "madness" part of March Madness, most of it happens in the first two rounds. That's when teams that enter so highly regarded (and seeded) either overlook their lower-rated opponents or just get run off the court.

Last season was on the low end for upsets. Only five double-digit seeds advanced out of the first round, and none were seeded 13th or worse. That was the first time that happened since 2007.

Four teams seeded seventh or worse made it to the Sweet 16, however, including a No. 11 (Xavier) that reached the Elite Eight and a No. 7 (South Carolina) that made the Final Four.

Who are the best candidates to bust up brackets in 2018? For each region we've picked a favorite and an honorable mention from teams seeded 10th or worse to pull off first-round upsets. We also chose a "sleeper" from teams seeded seventh or lower to potentially make the Sweet 16.

East First Round Honorable Mention: Murray State

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

Murray State (26-5) is back in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2012, when a future NBA player named Isaiah Canaan helped the Racers reach the second round. That team was a No. 6 seed, though, while the current squad earned a No. 12 and a matchup with No. 5 West Virginia.

There is a similarity between 2012 and 2018, though: Murray State again has a potential NBA player in senior guard Jonathan Stark, who at 21.8 points per game is the fifth-highest scorer in the tourney field.

The Racers are great at taking care of the ball, which bodes well since they're facing a West Virginia squad that forces 16.5 takeaways per game. The Mountaineers have to force turnovers to fuel their offense, but a team like Murray State can avoid that trap.

East First Round Upset Favorite: UCLA

Ethan Miller/Getty Images

UCLA (21-11) isn't even guaranteed a spot in the main bracket; the Bruins will face St. Bonaventure on Tuesday night in Dayton, Ohio, in the First Four. But if the Bruins get past that game, odds are they won't be done winning.

UCLA has made three previous appearances under coach Steve Alford and has gotten to the Sweet 16 each time, with the 2015 squad doing so as a No. 11 seed. And the Bruins have the history of the First Four on their side. Since those games were introduced in 2011, at least one team to play in those opening-round tilts has won at least once more.

St. Bonaventure and then No. 6 Florida would both have something to say about that, but UCLA has something those teams lack: size. The Bruins have three guys 6'10" or taller in their rotation, including 7-foot senior Thomas Welsh, who averages a double-double.

St. Bonaventure doesn't start anyone over 6'7", and Florida has one of the lowest rebounding rates among tourney teams.

East Sweet 16 Sleeper: Arkansas

Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

It's not exactly 40 Minutes of Hell, but Arkansas (23-11) still tends to push the pace more than most teams, and that can cause opponents who aren't used to that to get sped up and out of control.

The Razorbacks average 81.1 points per game and shoot 40 percent from three-point range while getting in 71.3 possessions per 40 minutes. They work quickly but still manage to take good shots, particularly from senior guards Jaylen Barford and Daryl Macon.

Assuming they get past first-round foe Butler, which went 5-7 in its fastest-paced games this season, No. 2 seed Purdue would await in the second round with only one game under its belt in a two-week span.

The Big Ten's decision to move up its conference tournament a week could have an unintended consequence if a team that's been on the shelf for a while can't get back up to game speed, particularly when that speed is much faster than what the Boilermakers are used to.

Midwest First Round Honorable Mention: First Four Winner

Ethan Miller/Getty Images

We've already spotlighted the history of First Four teams and their performance outside of Dayton. While that factored into picking the winner of Wednesday's Arizona State/Syracuse game as a potential upset candidate, that's only part of the equation. A much larger factor is the uncertainty the First Four winner's opponent, TCU, is currently facing.

The Horned Frogs (21-11) have known for a while they were going to earn their first NCAA bid since 1998, but now they have to wait a little longer to find out who they're going to open with. And they couldn't have two more diametrically opposed options than an ASU team which loves to push the tempo and fire at will from the perimeter and a Syracuse squad that is offensively challenged but defends at a high level.

TCU is much more like ASU than Syracuse but is coming off one of its worst offensive performances of the season in an overtime loss to Kansas State in the Big 12 tournament. Regardless of its preference, there won't be much time to game-plan for either since the Horned Frogs' first-round game will tip less than 48 hours after they know who they're playing.

Midwest First Round Upset Favorite: New Mexico State

Sam Wasson/Getty Images

The NCAA tournament selection committee gives preferential treatment to the highest-seeded teams both in who they're matched up against and where they play those early games. For everyone else, they do their best to minimize travel, but that's hard when the vast majority of the teams are from the Eastern two-thirds of the country and two first-weekend venues are out West.

As a result, seven of the eight teams sent to San Diego are from more than 1,300 miles away. The closest team to Viejas Arena is No. 12 seed New Mexico State (28-5), which faces a fifth-seeded Clemson team making its first NCAA appearance since 2011 and gets to go across the country to make that happen.

The game, the last one to be played in the first round Friday night, isn't likely to tip off until 10 p.m. ET.

As if time and distance weren't enough, Clemson has to deal with an NMSU defense that holds opponents to 39.2 percent shooting and 63.8 points per game. The Tigers just got done fruitlessly trying to score against Virginia in the ACC tournament and now will have another points-at-a-premium matchup.

Midwest Sweet 16 Sleeper: North Carolina State

Abbie Parr/Getty Images

North Carolina State (21-11) had a new coach this season but still managed to do some of the same things it did under previous coach Mark Gottfried. Most notably, the Wolfpack found a way to post some strong wins but also a few head-scratching losses.

Good thing they're a No. 9 seed and both teams they'd have to face to make the Sweet 16 are higher-rated.

Get past No. 8 Seton Hall in the first round, and the Wolfpack would almost certainly play No. 1 Kansas in Wichita. That's as close to playing a road game in the NCAA tournament as it gets, but NC State won five non-home games this year, including against Arizona in the Bahamas and at North Carolina and Syracuse. The Wolfpack also beat Clemson and Duke at home.

While Kansas will be a heavy "home" favorite, this Jayhawks team hasn't been as unbeatable in those situations. They lost three times at home and once in Kansas City, so a loss in Wichita wouldn't be that hard to fathom.

South First Round Honorable Mention: Davidson

Mitchell Leff/Getty Images

By upsetting Rhode Island in the Atlantic 10 championship game on Sunday, Davidson (21-11) ended the NCAA tournament hopes of "first team out" Notre Dame by stealing its bid. Why should the Wildcats stop with the thievery now when there are even bigger fanbases to devastate?

There's no bigger group in college basketball than Big Blue Nation, the Kentucky faithful who live and breathe college hoops. John Calipari isn't just their coach; he's their leader. And he's rewarded them with some tremendous teams. He's also not lost a first-round game since 2003, when he was at Memphis.

Kentucky is on a high after running through the SEC tournament, but it still got shipped out to Boise, which has to be disappointing. Davidson would play on an aircraft carrier or a hangar without air conditioning just as long as its high scoring guards—senior Peyton Aldridge and freshman Kellan Grady—get a chance to win its first NCAA game since the magical 2008 Elite Eight run behind Stephen Curry.

South First Round Upset Favorite: Loyola-Chicago

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

Loyola-Chicago (28-5) is making its first NCAA appearance since 1985, but before that drought the Ramblers were much more frequent players in the tourney. They won the 1963 national title, knocking off two-time defending champion Cincinnati.

It's time for them to make some new history, and taking out No. 6 Miami in the first round would be a great start. To make that happen, Loyola will need to stick with the formula that's gotten it this far: strong defense and lights-out perimeter shooting.

Nobody averages more than 13.4 points per game, but nearly every starter shoots at least 37 percent from three-point range. Opponents make fewer than one-third of their threes and just 41.2 percent overall, and the Ramblers allow just 62.2 points per game.

Miami has been susceptible to good perimeter shooting teams and can go cold on offense, often in the same game.

South Sweet 16 Sleeper: Texas

Sue Ogrocki/Associated Press

Sporting a 19-14 record, Texas is far from imposing on paper. It hasn't won consecutive games since late January and lost seven of the last 12.

But the Longhorns have also played almost nothing but good teams since late December, 14 of their last 22 against NCAA tournament qualifiers and five more of those matchups with bubble teams that just missed out. After that gauntlet, there's no opponent they could face in the tourney that would scare them.

Seeded 10th, Texas could be favored against No. 7 Nevada and will have more fans there in Nashville. The Longhorns won't be favored or have a crowd edge in the second round against Cincinnati, though, but they do have the kind of team that can slug it out with the defensive-minded Bearcats.

West First Round Honorable Mention: Montana

Michael Hickey/Getty Images

The West Region is a bit thin on upset possibilities, with FiveThirtyEight giving none of the double-digit seeds better than a 42 percent chance to win in the first round. Montana (26-7) is given only an 11 percent chance to beat No. 3 Michigan, but that's tied for the best odds of any No. 14 seed.

Why do the Grizzlies have a shot? For one, they can score, averaging 78.1 points per game, with former Oregon guard Ahmaad Rorie pouring in 17.2 per game.

They also have some momentum after winning the Big Sky tournament on Saturday night as opposed to Michigan, which since taking down the Big Ten title a week ago has been sitting back waiting to find out its destination (Wichita) and opponent.

The Wolverines surely would have preferred Detroit or Pittsburgh and a higher seed.

West First Round Upset Favorite: South Dakota State

Peter G. Aiken/Getty Images

If you haven't seen Mike Daum play, you're in for a treat.

He's a 6'9" junior who averages 23.8 points and 10.4 rebounds per game while shooting 42.1 percent from three-point range. And he's the best all-around player outside of the power conferences.

First-round opponent Ohio State will no doubt craft its game plan around stopping Daum, but too much focus on him can be the Buckeyes' downfall. That's because South Dakota State (28-6) is far from a one-man team despite Daum's big numbers.

Freshman guard David Jenkins Jr. is one of the highest-scoring freshmen in the country at 16.1 points per game, while senior guard Reed Tellinghuisen, like Daum, is playing in his third straight NCAA tourney.

Ohio State has been a big surprise under first-year coach Chris Holtmann. The Buckeyes also lost three of their last five and last played March 2.

West Sweet 16 Sleeper: Providence

Elsa/Getty Images

Raise your hand if you had Providence, a team that entered the Big East tournament firmly on the NCAA bubble—possibly on the bad side—playing three overtime games and winning two, nearly taking out two eventual No. 1 NCAA seeds in the process.

Stop it, you're fibbing. No one saw this coming from the Friars (21-13), yet after beating West No. 1 Xavier and almost doing the same to East No. 1 Villanova, it's time to re-evaluate what they're capable of. And on further review, that means they could be in line to take out No. 2 North Carolina in the second round.

Providence has to beat Texas A&M first and then deal with UNC in a virtual home game in Charlotte. That's not an easy feat, but it's manageable after what we just saw this past weekend.

Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.