NCAA Bracket 2018: Complete Guide to Midwest Region

The 2018 NCAA tournament field has been revealed—a 68-team collection of championship contenders, Final Four hopefuls and little guys dreaming of big things. The Midwest Regional has a little of each of those, making it possibly the toughest region in the bracket this time around.

Kansas is the No. 1 seed in the Midwest for the third year in a row after claiming a record 14th straight Big 12 regular-season title and then winning the conference tournament.

Waiting on the other side of the bracket is second-seeded Duke, which is hoping to avoid an early exit like in 2017, when it was upset by eventual Final Four team South Carolina in the second round.

Michigan State, Auburn, Clemson and TCU are the next-highest seeds, with each of them showing at points during the season they have what it takes to make a deep run.

Will any of them be able to get past the top-seeded schools, or will some of the lower-seeded entrants play Cinderella and reach the Sweet 16 or beyond?

Read on as we break down the Midwest Regional.

First-Round Schedule and TV Info

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Thursday

(Games in Wichita, Kansas)

No. 1 Kansas (27-7) vs. No. 16 Pennsylvania (24-8), 2 p.m. ET, TBS

No. 8 Seton Hall (21-11) vs. No. 9 North Carolina State (21-11), approx. 4:30 p.m. ET, TBS

(Games in Pittsburgh)

No. 7 Rhode Island (25-7) vs. No. 10 Oklahoma (18-13), 12:15 p.m. ET, CBS

No. 2 Duke (26-7) vs. No. 15 Iona (20-13), approx. 2:45 p.m. ET, CBS

Friday

(Games in Detroit)

No. 3 Michigan State (29-4) vs. No. 14 Bucknell (25-9), 7:10 p.m. ET, CBS

No. 6 TCU (21-11) vs. Arizona State/Syracuse winner*, approx. 9:40 p.m. ET, CBS

(Games in San Diego)

No. 4 Auburn (25-7) vs. No. 13 Charleston (26-7), 7:27 p.m. ET, truTV

No. 5 Clemson (23-9) vs. No. 12 New Mexico State (28-5), approx. 9:57 p.m. ET, truTV

*Arizona State (20-11) plays Syracuse (20-13) Wednesday in the First Four

Must-See Games

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Rhode Island vs. Oklahoma

Oklahoma has the most exciting player in the country in freshman guard Trae Young—the first player in Division I history to lead the nation in scoring and assists. But Young has struggled down the stretch, as did Oklahoma, which was bounced in the first round of the Big 12 tournament and lost eight of its last 10.

Rhode Island didn't have as big a late-season slide, but it was noticeable. The Rams were riding a 16-game win streak before falling at St. Bonaventure on Feb. 16. That defeat began a 4-4 finish that included a loss to Davidson in the Atlantic 10 conference tournament semifinal.

One of them is going to reverse their losing ways on Thursday in Pittsburgh, however, and their reward will be earning a likely second-round matchup with Duke.

Clemson vs. New Mexico State

Clemson is making its first NCAA tournament appearance since 2011, the first year coach Brad Brownell was in charge. The Tigers had several close calls since then but finally broke through this season after tying for third place in the ACC, their best finish in 11 years.

New Mexico State is a veritable NCAA tourney mainstay compared to Clemson. This is the Aggies' seventh trip since 2010 and sixth in the past seven seasons. NMSU hasn't won an NCAA game since 1993, though, coming close in 2014 when it fell in overtime to San Diego State in the first round.

Each year a team that hasn't been in the NCAA field for a while and finds itself highly seeded ends up getting bounced early. Could Clemson meet such a fate at the hands of the Aggies?

TCU vs. First Four Winner

Fear the First Four finishers. If that's not already trademarked, I call dibs on that saying, since it's proved to be true ever since the NCAA tournament expanded to 68 teams in 2011.

Each year at least one at-large qualifier forced to go to Dayton, Ohio, for a First Four game has ended up advancing beyond the first round. The most significant example was the first one, in 2011, when VCU went from the First Four to the Final Four.

Two other schools—La Salle in 2013 and Tennessee in 2014—made it to the Sweet 16, while last year USC beat Providence in Dayton and then knocked off No. 6 SMU two days later in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

TCU is in the unenviable position of having to face a First Four winner, either Arizona State or Syracuse. If history continues, either the Horned Frogs or Florida (which faces the St. Bonaventure/UCLA winner) will get knocked off in the first round.

Top Storylines

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Plenty of Top-Notch Coaches

There are eight current college basketball coaches who have won a national championship. Four of them have teams in the Midwest Regional.

Topping the list is Duke's Mike Krzyzewski, the NCAA all-time wins leader who has won five national titles while also making 12 Final Fours.

There's also Syracuse's Jim Boeheim, Michigan State's Tom Izzo and Kansas' Bill Self, each of whom has a national championship on their resume and have appeared in 14 Final Fours combined.

And to add to the greatness of the coaching in the Midwest, don't forget Oklahoma's Lon Kruger. He doesn't have a title, but he has taken two different schools to the Final Four, doing so with Florida in 1994 and Oklahoma in 2016.

Can Kansas Break Through?

This is Kansas' third straight season being a No. 1 seed and fourth time in the six years since its last Final Four appearance in 2012, when the Jayhawks lost to Kentucky in the national championship game. That year was also the last time they advanced as far as their seed is expected to go.

In theory, No. 1 seeds should make the Final Four, while No. 2 seeds should reach the Elite Eight. Since Kansas got to the Final Four six years ago (as a No. 2 seed), it has been bounced from the NCAA tournament at least one round earlier than its seed would indicate.

The last two tourneys have seen Kansas go no further than in the Elite Eight, falling to No. 3 Oregon last year and No. 2 Villanova in 2016. Then two years before that, the Jayhawks were bounced in the second round despite being a No. 2 seed.

Strong Resumes Abound

Of the 17 schools slotted into the Midwest, including the two set for a First Four matchup in Dayton, 11 of them earned at-large bids to the NCAA tournament.

That means those teams got in based on their overall resumes and not just because they got hot and won a few games in a row in a conference tourney.

The 11 at-large teams are tied with the East Regional for most in this year's NCAA field. The South only has six at-large teams, while the West has eight.

Stars to Watch

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Marvin Bagley III, Duke

Duke has had plenty of stellar freshmen in the last decade, many of whom have gone on to be high NBA draft picks. Marvin Bagley III may be the best of the lot.

The 6'11" forward is averaging 21.1 points and 11.5 rebounds per game—the only player in the country averaging those numbers. He has posted a double-double in 21 of the 29 games he's played this season, having missed four contests in February with a sprained knee.

Since coming back from that injury, Bagley has averaged 20.8 points and 11.8 rebounds on 64.7 percent shooting.

Devonte' Graham, Kansas

Big 12 Player of the Year Devonte' Graham is coming off a tremendous 18-point, 13-assist performance against West Virginia in the conference tournament final on Saturday, helping Kansas claim another title to go with its regular-season crown. That was the sixth time this season he has dished out at least 10 assists.

The 6'2" senior guard is averaging 17.3 points, 3.9 rebounds and 7.5 assists per game for the Jayhawks, taking over the leadership role that fellow guard Frank Mason III held last season. Graham has been an ironman for Kansas, having played all but nine minutes in its last 17 games.

Trae Young, Oklahoma

The last time a college basketball player led the nation in scoring and assists? Before Young, that would be never.

The electric Oklahoma freshman took the sport by storm in November and December with his ability to seemingly score at will while also dishing dimes. Prior to Big 12 play, he had four 30-point games and also tied the NCAA single-game assists record with 22 against Northwestern State on Dec. 19.

Teams began to figure him out as the year went on, resulting in much lower efficiency numbers, yet Young still managed to average 27.4 points and 8.8 assists per game. And with a week off to recharge the batteries, the 6'2" Young could be poised to explode offensively once again.

Favorites Most Likely to Fall

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Auburn

Auburn hadn't made the NCAA tournament since 2003, the longest drought of any SEC team, but the Tigers assured they would get in early on by jumping out to a 9-1 start in conference play. That helped them earn a share of the regular-season title, their first in 19 years.

But Auburn tailed off down the stretch, losing five of its last nine, and was bounced from the SEC tourney in the quarterfinals by rival Alabama. Two of its last three opponents shot better than 50 percent after only three of the first 29 managed that.

Enter Charleston, which has won 14 of 16 and rallied from a 17-point deficit to beat Northeastern in the Colonial Athletic Association title game.

Clemson

Call it the Virginia Effect. Teams coming off a matchup with the No. 1 overall seed have tended to struggle in their next game, possibly still feeling the effects of dealing with Virginia's lockdown defense.

Clemson narrowly edged Georgia Tech on Jan. 28, five days after scoring a mere 36 points in a loss at Virginia. The Tigers scored 58 points against the Cavaliers in their ACC tournament semifinal loss Friday but shot only 34.7 percent and turned it over 13 times in a low-possession game.

First-round opponent New Mexico State allows just 63.8 points per game, 10th-best in the country, and opponents shoot just 39.2 percent against the Aggies.

TCU

As mentioned earlier, a team that has played in the First Four has advanced beyond the next round every year since those play-in games were added in 2011. TCU doesn't yet know who it will face in this year's NCAA tournament as it awaits the winner of Wednesday's game between Arizona State and Syracuse.

That means the Horned Frogs, who are in the tourney for the first time since 1998, will have less than 48 hours to prepare for opponents that are completely different in style and tempo. Arizona State loves to run, averaging 83.5 points per game, while Syracuse relies on its zone defense to keep the scoring down and plays at one of the slowest paces in the game.

TCU will not have played in more than a week, having lost on March 8 to Kansas State in the first round of the Big 12 tournament. Its last win came on Feb. 27 against those same opponents. 

Most Likely Cinderella

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New Mexico State

If at first you don't succeed, try and try again. So it has gone for New Mexico State, which is the Western Athletic Conference's automatic qualifier for the seventh time in nine seasons.

Those previous six appearances all ended in defeat, though, and the last five as a No. 13 seed or lower. The last time the Aggies were a No. 12 seed was in 2010, when they pushed No. 5 Michigan State to the limit in a 70-67 game. MSU went on to play in the Final Four that year.

Is this the year NMSU breaks through and wins one, or maybe more? If so, it will be because of the play of a pair of exciting guards, seniors Zach Lofton and Jemerrio Jones.

Lofton averages 19.8 points per game, while Jones—who is listed at 6'5" but may only be 6'3"—chips in 11 points and 13.2 rebounds per game, the latter good for second-best in the country.

Who Will Make the Sweet 16

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Duke

There will be no geographical anomalies impacting Duke's tournament path this year, unlike in 2016, when the NCAA moved a subregional from Greensboro, North Carolina, to Greenville, South Carolina, in response to North Carolina passing anti-LGBTQ legislation.

That didn't make for much further of a trip for the Blue Devils, but it did make for an unfortunate locale when paired up with South Carolina in the second round.

Duke isn't playing in either Charlotte or Nashville, the closest regional sites, but Pittsburgh isn't too far away. And more importantly, it won't be facing anyone with a home-court advantage.

Iona shouldn't provide much of a challenge in the first round, but the same can't be said of either Rhode Island or Oklahoma in the second round. That's where Duke's much-improved defense will be put to the test, but it will come through and make the Sweet 16 for the 30th time overall and sixth time since 2010.

Kansas

Kansas gets to play its first two games in Wichita, and its three potential opponents—Pennsylvania and either North Carolina State or Seton Hall—have a combined 30 losses. It doesn't get much easier for a No. 1 seed, and despite the Jayhawks' history of coming up short in NCAA tournaments, they normally make it out of the first weekend no matter what.

The last time Kansas failed to reach the Sweet 16 as a No. 1 seed was in 2010, when it was shocked by No. 9 Northern Iowa

Michigan State

The Big Ten's continued push to make New York City part of its footprint, despite having only one school within 100 miles of the Big Apple, resulted in moving up the league tournament a week this year in order to be able to play it at Madison Square Garden. As a result, the Big Ten's four NCAA tourney qualifiers got a longer-than-normal break.

For Michigan State, its first-round NCAA game against Bucknell on Friday will be its first in 13 days after losing to Michigan in the Big Ten semifinals March 3. That kind of a layoff could result in rust, making for a potentially stressful opener.

But coach Tom Izzo's penchant for success in quick-turnaround situations should pay off. Under Izzo, MSU is 21-5 in the second game of a weekend in NCAA tourney play, with a 13-2 mark on the back end of the first weekend. The two losses were as a No. 9 seed to a No. 1 seed, including last year to Kansas.

New Mexico State

The No. 12 seeds have traditionally been the most successful among lower-seeded teams in the first round of the NCAA tournament in 15 of the last 17 years, with 11 wins since 2012. But after that, those No. 12s have tended to regress, going 10-19 in the round of 32 since 2001, with Oregon the last to reach the Sweet 16 in 2013.

New Mexico State will end that drought by knocking off Clemson and then Auburn to reach its first Sweet 16 since 1992.

With the Aggies the only team sent to San Diego that's even remotely within driving distance, expect the crowd there to be heavily on their side in both games.

The Elite Eight Matchup Will Be...

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Duke vs. Kansas

With its first two games in Wichita and the Midwest Regional in Omaha, Nebraska, the NCAA tournament selection committee has basically giftwrapped Kansas' path to a third consecutive Elite Eight.

Yet, playing in front of partisan crowds hasn't been as helpful as normal this season for the Jayhawks, who lost three times at home and also once in Kansas City, their virtual backyard.

But any concerns about Kansas' play this season were tossed aside by how it performed in the Big 12 tournament, beating all three opponents by double digits. Coach Bill Self's veteran team is showing its experience and will push the Jayhawks through to the regional final.

Duke will meet them in Omaha after beating Michigan State in the Sweet 16, its second win over the Spartans this season following an 88-81 victory in the Champions Classic back in November.

The Blue Devils will reach the Elite Eight for the first time since 2015, when they ended up winning the national title.

And the Final Four Team Is...Duke

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Duke and Kansas meet every three years in the Champions Classic, most recently in 2016 when Kansas pulled out a 77-75 decision.

Grayson Allen, the only Blue Devil left from that squad, was 4-of-15 from the field and missed six of seven three-pointers.

Allen is the lone holdover from Duke's 2015 national title team, a hardly used freshman who ended up scoring 25 points in 38 minutes off the bench in wins over Michigan State and Wisconsin in the Final Four.

Since then, his career has been all over the place, with hot-and-cold performances mixing with controversy related to trips and—most recently—butt fouls.

A return to the Final Four, where the senior guard first made his mark, is the perfect way for Allen's college basketball story to end.

And the first NCAA tourney meeting between Duke and Kansas since 2003 will also continue the Jayhawks' streak of falling short, with this being their third consecutive Elite Eight defeat.

Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.