NCAA Conference Tournaments 2018: Last-Second Predictions for Major Conferences

Men's college basketball conference tournaments have been going on for a week now, with nearly half of the 32 Division I leagues starting their tourneys already. Five teams have already punched their tickets to the NCAA tournament, including Michigan, which won the Big Ten title on Sunday.

As great as the conference tourney action has been, the really good stuff is still on its way.

With the exception of the Big Ten, the rest of the major conferences begin their tournaments this week. The ACC starts us off on Tuesday, with the Atlantic 10, Big East, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC beginning Wednesday and the American commencing on Thursday.

The power conferences tend to produce the bulk of the 68-team field by grabbing most of the at-large berths in addition to automatic bids. It's also where the majority of the bubble teams reside, meaning the results of every game in those tournaments can impact who gets into the NCAA tourney and where they're seeded.

Follow along as we break down the remaining major-conference tourneys, with predictions on who will make the finals and who will take home conference titles.

ACC

Steve Helber/Associated Press

Winner: Virginia

Runner-up: North Carolina

The massive 15-team ACC tournament begins Tuesday with three games and then four more contests on Wednesday. The top four seeds get double byes, meaning they only have to win three games in as many days to claim the title as opposed to four or five games for the other schools.

Our projected final includes a team needing an extra game, which shouldn't be surprising because the ACC is so deep that several teams outside the top four are capable of reaching the title game. North Carolina (22-9) is the No. 6 seed after losing to Duke in the regular-season finale, its second consecutive loss with the other coming at home to Miami.

And the Tar Heels would need to get past those two in order to reach their third ACC final in four years. After taking out No. 11 Syracuse or No. 14 Wake Forest, they'd get No. 3 Miami in the quarterfinals and presumably second-seeded Duke in the semifinals. Revenge isn't just a dish best served cold; it's also tasty in conference tournaments.

But the run will end for the defending national champions in the title game, where top-seeded Virginia (28-2) will be waiting after pounding its first two opponents into defensive submission. The Cavaliers have allowed 53.1 points per game in ACC play, and their system is favorable in quick turnaround situations because the focus and effort needed to compete with them leads to quick fatigue for opponents.

Virginia claims its first ACC tourney title since 2014.

American

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Winner: Cincinnati

Runner-up: Wichita State

The American Athletic Conference will be the last to finish this week, ending roughly a half-hour before the 68-team bracket is unveiled. That could make for some last-minute adjustments by the selection committee if an upstart makes the final, but that's not likely this season based on the superiority of the AAC's three surefire NCAA tourney teams.

Cincinnati, Houston and Wichita State each split with each other and went a combined 38-4 against the rest of the league. No team outside that top three has more than one win over the upper group.

Cincinnati (27-4) won the league title on the final day of the regular season by edging Wichita State (24-6) by one point on the road, its first outright conference championship since 2002, when it was in Conference USA. The Bearcats' last conference tourney title was in 2004 (also in C-USA).

Wichita State has more than held its own after moving over from the Missouri Valley and, barring a loss to Houston in the semifinals, will likely get a deciding third game with Cincinnati. The Bearcats will have the edge because of the recent triumph.

Atlantic 10

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Winner: Rhode Island

Runner-up: St. Bonaventure

Rhode Island (23-6) won its first 13 Atlantic 10 games to take a stranglehold on the league but then finished 2-3, with losses at second-seeded St. Bonaventure and third-seeded Davidson. But the Senior Day disaster against Saint Joseph's, in which the Rams lost by 30 at home, is the most troubling of those results.

Expect a renewed focus from coach Dan Hurley's squad and a return to the form that produced a 16-game win streak midway through the season. Rhode Island will make the NCAA tourney regardless of if it wins the A-10 title, but the Rams want the best seed possible and will play with that purpose in mind.

St. Bonaventure (24-6) isn't assured of an NCAA bid, but getting to the conference final will make the Bonnies a lock. That's no guarantee to happen, though, since in the semifinals they would likely meet a Davidson team that they needed three overtimes to beat at home on Feb. 27.

Big East

Gary Landers/Associated Press

Winner: Villanova

Runner-up: Xavier

Villanova (27-4) may have lost its stranglehold on the Big East, finishing in second place after winning the previous four regular-season titles, but it still owns Xavier (27-4). The Wildcats won both meetings over the Musketeers, and neither was close.

Xavier won the league because Villanova's injuries and depth issues popped up several times in February, but when these teams met, it was all Villanova. The first meeting, in January, was a 24-point margin. Then, on Feb. 17, Villanova went to Cincinnati and beat the Musketeers 95-79.

Anything less than a third meeting will make for a disappointing final, though fourth-seeded Creighton could crash the party if it gets hot from three-point range. But if there's a major conference that's most likely to go chalk, it's the Big East, at least until the title game, where Villanova will reassert its dominance with a third conference tourney title in four years.

Big 12

Eric Gay/Associated Press

Winner: Texas Tech

Runner-up: Kansas

Kansas (24-7) has won or shared the last 14 Big 12 regular-season titles, a feat that seems impossible considering the roster turnover that occurs in college basketball. It's a testament to Bill Self and his coaching that have made the Jayhawks' run possible despite the long grind of a league schedule.

If only that same approach translated to a three-days-in-three-games format. Of the previous 13 Big 12 tournaments, Kansas has won it just seven times and only once in the past four years. Iowa State was victorious the other three times, but that probably won't happen unless the 10th-seeded Cyclones suddenly become a different team than the one that enters with a losing record.

Kansas lost five conference games this year, including three to potential quarterfinal opponents Oklahoma and Oklahoma State (twice). OK State is the first team to sweep the Jayhawks in the Self era.

The Jayhawks also lost at home to Texas Tech (23-8) in early January, and had senior guard Keenan Evans not been hobbled by a toe injury, the Red Raiders probably would have ended Kansas' regular-season run. Instead, they dropped four straight late and got the No. 2 seed. Evans looked back to full strength in the finale win over TCU, as along as he's healthy, the Red Raiders will come through with their first Big 12 tourney title.

Pac-12

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Winner: Arizona

Runner-up: Utah

Arizona (24-7) won the Pac-12 by two games but was far from dominant in the league, its average margin of victory just 7.1 points. The Wildcats only won six conference games by double digits and were 2-3 in games decided by five or fewer points.

Yet when the locale moves from campus gyms to Las Vegas, Arizona seems to turn it up a notch. It is 10-3 in Pac-12 tourney games in Sin City, winning it all two of the previous three years and making the final in three of the last four years.

Fourth-seeded UCLA (20-10) is the only team not playing in the first round that has beaten Arizona, setting up what should be a great semifinal that might as well be the title game. The Bruins won in Tucson and are coming off a strong performance in a win Saturday at rival USC.

Second-seeded USC (21-10) swept No. 3 Utah (19-10) this season, but the Utes often have a strong fan contingent in Las Vegas, second only to Arizona, and their league-best scoring defense will earn them their second Pac-12 final berth in three seasons.

SEC

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Winner: Florida

Runner-up: Auburn

There was some significant upheaval in the SEC power structure in 2017-18, with Auburn (25-6) and Tennessee (23-7) sharing first place after being picked to finish ninth and 13th, respectively. Preseason favorite Kentucky (21-10) is the No. 4 seed, its eight league losses its most since 2008-09, the last year of the short-lived Billy Gillispie era.

Florida (20-11) got the No. 3 seed after being picked second and enters the conference tournament playing its best in months. A three-game win streak, including a blowout of Kentucky on Saturday and a six-point victory over Auburn, has the Gators riding high at the right time.

Auburn has slipped a bit, losing three of five after an 11-2 start to SEC play, as its explosive offense has cooled off. And five of the Tigers' eight worst defensive performances, in terms of points allowed per possession, have come since the start of February.

They still have enough to get by a Kentucky team that's just not organized enough to win a fourth straight SEC tournament or make a fifth consecutive title game. Auburn earns its first finals appearance since 2000, but Florida gets the crown for the first time since 2014.

Statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com and are through games of Sunday, March 4. Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.