Fantasy Baseball 2018 Rankings: Highlighting Top Prospects to Target
Tim Robbins said in a famous voiceover near the end of The Shawshank Redemption that "hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies."
That sentiment can be applied to fantasy baseball and prospects. The former requires hope because no one wants to endure the shame that comes with being defeated yet again, spending another long winter wondering what can be done to reach that elusive brass ring.
Prospects are designed for the sole purpose of providing hope to fans and fantasy players. They are the next wave of great stars who can make an immediate fantasy impact without the high cost of an early-round pick. This affords fantasy owners the opportunity to build their depth, both for 2018 and in dynasty leagues.
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For the purposes of this exercise about top fantasy prospects, their value will only be applied to what is expected for the 2018 season.
Shohei Ohtani, SP/DH, Los Angeles Angels
It's not a surprise that Shohei Ohtani kicks off the list of top fantasy prospects for this season. He's been heralded as a superstar talent dating back to his time playing in Japan.
Scouting reports for Ohtani highlight what a rare talent he is because of his potential as a pitcher and hitter.
Here's what one international scouting director told MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo about Ohtani's skill set:
"I saw [Ken] Griffey in the Minor Leagues and A-Rod as an amateur. The buzz about Ohtani is similar to those guys and guys like [Stephen] Strasburg. Compared to Griffey and A-Rod, he isn't as polished a hitter and probably doesn't have the same upside. But he does have the chance to be a Strasburg. What is unique is that he does both."
Ohtani did have contact issues as a hitter in Japan, striking out 161 times in 525 at-bats over the past two seasons with the Nippon Ham Fighters. He also hit 30 homers during that span, so a reasonable expectation is for him to have an average in the .240-.250 range with 20 homers if he gets 500-plus at-bats.
Angels manager Mike Scioscia has already told reporters Ohtani's main value to the team will come as a starting pitcher.
"He's going to get the most looks as a pitcher," Scioscia said. "If he can pitch to his capabilities, that will always influence your team more than what he would do hitting. But that's not to say he won't have a chance to be a difference-maker on the offensive end, too."
Scioscia also noted the Angels will use a six-man rotation, which could mainly be to benefit Ohtani. The 23-year-old never threw more than 160.2 innings in a season with Nippon Ham, and injuries limited him to 25.1 innings in 2017.
This spring has been a bad welcome to the big leagues for Ohtani, who allowed 17 runs in 13.2 innings that included eight earned runs and three homers in just two Cactus League starts against MLB competition.
Despite the hype around Ohtani, there was always going to be a period of adjustment. He is still young and talented enough to become the star Los Angeles needs him to be, so don't fret over what has gone wrong in a handful of exhibition games.
Fantasy owners are in a bind because, in the case of Yahoo Sports, Ohtani is being split into two categories as a pitcher and hitter. That means anyone who wants to get his full value will have to draft him twice.
Unless owners are bullish on Ohtani's hitting ability and receiving at least 300 plate appearances, his greatest value will come as a pitcher. It's the best way to add a potentially dominant arm, while also leaving a roster spot open for a hitter who is going to get consistent at-bats all season.
Ronald Acuna, OF, Atlanta Braves
The only thing standing in the way of Ronald Acuna getting a starting job for the Atlanta Braves out of spring training is service time.
Acuna is a center fielder, a spot occupied in Atlanta by Ender Inciarte. If the Braves want to keep the veteran in the middle of the diamond, they can push their top prospect to left field in place of Lane Adams.
Adams had a nice 2017 season with an .807 OPS in 85 games, but he was a 27-year-old rookie with no MLB track record before that. Acuna is the future face of the franchise who hit .325/.374/.522 with 21 homers across three levels last season.
Braves legend Chipper Jones had high praise for Acuna when he caught a glimpse of the 20-year-old at spring training last month.
"The bat stays through the zone a long time. He's going to make consistent contact," Jones told Cory McCartney of Fox Sports South. "He's not quite what Andruw (Jones) was in the outfield … but he's not far off. I think he's going to hit more from foul pole to foul pole with damage than Andruw did.
Acuna only has 54 games of experience at Triple-A, so the Braves could try to manipulate his service time by sending him back to the minors for a period of time to gain an extra year of control.
Even if it requires keeping him on the bench for a month or two, Acuna is worth drafting because he's such a natural hitter. His worst slash line in the minors was .269/.380/.438 in 2015 when he was 17 years old.
Victor Robles, OF, Washington Nationals
Like Acuna, Victor Robles will start the regular season in the minors after the Washington Nationals optioned him to Triple-A last week.
The Nationals did give their top prospect a cup of coffee in the big leagues last season. Robles hit .250/.308/.458 in 13 games last September, and he appeared in two games during Washington's loss to the Chicago Cubs in the National League Division Series.
When Robles is brought back up by the Nationals in 2018, his fantasy value will come largely from his speed.
MLB.com has Robles ranked as the No. 6 overall prospect, with each of his five tools grading out as above-average or better:
"His power played consistently in 2017 thanks to a more leveraged swing and better pitch selection, and the result was a career-best 10 home runs and 58 extra-base hits across three levels. ... A plus-plus runner, Robles impacts games with his wheels on the bases as well as in center field, where he has exceptional range and instincts as well as arm strength that's among the best in the Minors at the position."
Robles has never been a high strikeout hitter in the minors with 220 punchouts in 1,246 at-bats since 2014. His ability to make contact allows him to use his speed to get on base, steal bags and score a lot of runs.
The Nationals have a deep lineup of big hitters with Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Daniel Murphy and Anthony Rendon who will drive in a lot of runs.
Robles will eventually be able to showcase his talent in front of those hitters in Washington's lineup. Patient fantasy owners can take advantage of him starting the year in the minors, stashing him on the bench and waiting for his moment to come.
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