Fantasy Baseball 2018 Mock Draft: Strategy and Cheat Sheet for Opening Rounds

It's normal to have a strategy entering a fantasy draft, but all it takes is one person reaching for a player no one was expecting to go so high for everything to be thrown out of whack.

Closer tends to be the position that will destroy any plan for a draft. Everyone thinks they need to get the best one, leading to a second-round surprise and an inevitable rush on the rest of the players in the first and second tiers when there is much better value left on the board.

As preparations continue for your draft, here is a look at a 12-team first-round mock and some tidbits to remember before making a mistake that will cost your roster dearly when the season begins.

1st-Round Fantasy Mock Draft

1. Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels

2. Jose Altuve, 2B, Houston Astros

3. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks

4. Bryce Harper, OF, Washington Nationals

5. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies

6. Trea Turner, SS, Washington Nationals

7. Charlie Blackmon, OF, Colorado Rockies

8. Mookie Betts, OF, Boston Red Sox

9. Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros

10. Kris Bryant, 3B, Chicago Cubs

11. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta Braves

12. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

Prioritize Veteran Consistency

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Despite the rush of young superstar talent that has debuted in Major League Baseball recently, you will notice the mock draft doesn't include any player with fewer than three years of experience. 

Washington Nationals shortstop Trea Turner is technically credited with two years of service time despite playing 27 games at the end of the 2015 season, so he is the closest to that cutoff point. 

The reason for this is picking in the first round requires a strong degree of player certainty when making a selection. There are only a select group of superstars worthy of being drafted in the first round, and messing up the choice will throw off your entire roster.

One interesting example of player value, though one far outside of the first round, was put forth by FanGraphs' Jeff Zimmerman about Eric Hosmer:

Hosmer has long been a difficult player to judge, which partly explains why it took so long for him to find a free-agent deal from the San Diego Padres despite being 28. His career slash line (.284/.342/.439) isn't particularly special for a first baseman, and his home run totals over the past four seasons have ranged from nine to 25.

By comparison, Jose Altuve has been as consistent as any hitter in MLB since 2012. The AL MVP has never had fewer than 167 hits in each of his six full seasons, including four straight years with at least 200 hits. He has also stolen at least 30 bases in each season since 2012 and has slugged over .500 in each of the past two seasons.

The only reason Altuve has to settle for being the No. 2 overall pick is because Mike Trout, whose first full season also came in 2012, has been a fantasy machine. The Los Angeles Angels star's average 162-game stat line is .306/.410/.566 with 77 extra-base hits, 100 RBI and 29 stolen bases.

Versatility Is Your Friend

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Having a player who is eligible to play multiple positions is almost like adding an extra player to your roster.

It's nice to have stability at a single position—no one will argue with, say, Anthony Rizzo's production at first base—but there will always be a need on your roster to fill because of injuries or poor performance.

Being able to manipulate the system into your favor is an easy way to find success.

For example, Fantasy Pros has Freddie Freeman listed as a first baseman and third baseman because the Atlanta Braves used him at the hot corner 16 times last season to keep Matt Adams in the lineup.

This would allow fantasy owners to draft Freeman at third base in the first round and then attempt to add another big-power bat at first base later on.

The ultimate two-way player heading into 2018 is Angels rookie Shohei Ohtani. Manager Mike Scioscia has already said the Japanese sensation will see the bulk of his playing time on the mound, but he will DH on certain days.

Because of Ohtani's unique skill set, different fantasy outlets are using his eligibility in different ways. Yahoo Sports has announced he will be treated as two separate players as a pitcher and a hitter.

That does complicate how Ohtani should be drafted. He's ranked as the 17th-best DH and 23rd-best starting pitcher. Neither one puts him among the elite players in either category, so it's possible to wait on him.

Since the majority of Ohtani's value will come off the mound, keep an eye on how starters are coming off the board if you want him. His hitting is going to be limited, so there's a chance he could be represent solid late value in the final five rounds.

Pay Attention to Position Depth

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Sometimes moves to reach on a position where there doesn't appear to be a lot of depth backfire spectacularly. Going back to the example with closers, it's nice to have Kenley Jansen locking down the back of your pitching staff. But high-quality late-inning relievers emerge from the shadows every year.

Corey Knebel had a 4.68 ERA with almost as many hits allowed (32) as innings pitched (32.2) in 2016. After being inserted as the Milwaukee Brewers closer last season, the 26-year-old finished third among all relievers with 14.92 strikeouts per nine innings, tied for fourth with 39 saves and had a 1.78 ERA in 76 games.

On the flip side, catcher is a position that desperately needs to be prioritized. It's a telling sign that only four catchers (Gary Sanchez, Buster Posey, J.T. Realmuto and Yadier Molina) had enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title last season.

That number doesn't represent all of the catchers with high fantasy value heading into 2018. Willson Contreras is a budding superstar after hitting 21 homers in 117 games last season, and Salvador Perez has hit at least 20 homers in each of the past three seasons. Mike Zunino had a breakout 2017 with 25 homers and 64 RBI.

Adding in those three players only brings the total number of strong fantasy catchers to seven, not even enough for everybody to draft one in a 12-team league.

Pay close attention to when catchers start going off the board. As soon as the first one is popped, there will be a rush given the lack of stars at the position.