Matt Miller's Scouting Notebook: How Do Smith's, Cousins' Futures Impact Draft?

MINNEAPOLIS, Minn. — I was sitting in my hotel room near the Mall of America during Super Bowl week Tuesday night, feverishly working through a seven-round mock draft that publishes the morning after the game, and my phone started buzzing like crazy.

"Alex Smith traded to Washington," the text read. My first thought was someone was messing with me or predicting a trade that would happen after the league year begins March 14. Surely, there wouldn't be a trade in January.

But there was. And I deleted those three rounds of mock-draft work I had done because this deal turned the NFL upside down. 

With Kirk Cousins assured to hit free agency, the major players in the 2018 quarterback market will all go after him. Cleveland, Denver, the New York Jets, Arizona and maybe even Minnesota will bid on Cousins. That affects us here in the draft world because whoever lands the 29-year-old quarterback won't take a passer in the first round.

If Cousins signs with Cleveland—something of a long shot—it won't select Sam Darnold first overall. And the same goes for the Broncos, Jets and others with their top picks. And that sends a massive ripple effect through the draft's first round. There are four teams selecting in the top six that need a quarterback. Where Cousins lands could mean a slide out of the top 10 for Baker Mayfield or Josh Allen.

Similarly in Washington, even though Smith will be 34 years old by next season's start, quarterback is no longer the top need it was when Cousins' future was in question. Those Mayfield-to-Washington predictions are long gone now that Smith is set to sign a four-year deal to play for Dan Snyder's team, as ESPN's Adam Schefter reported.

If the rest of the offseason is anything like this first move, then it'll be a wild one. Here's what else is going on in the NFL this week:      

---

Stay up-to-date on every mock draft, big board and Stick to Football podcast episode throughout the season with the new B/R app.

---

• News, rumors and notes from around the league
• Risers, fallers and sleepers following the Senior Bowl
• Matt LaFleur a head coach candidate to watch
• Stick to Football with Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley and updated Big Boards
  
             

The Scout's Report

• Many on Twitter have criticized Washington for sending a third-rounder and talented cornerback Kendall Fuller to the Chiefs for Smith, but remember it'll get a 2019 third-rounder back as a compensatory pick because Cousins is leaving in free agency. Sure, you're giving up some value because the pick sent this year is No. 78 overall and the compensatory selection will be in the high 90s or low 100s, but I wouldn't get too caught up in the pick as trade bait.

• Did the Browns try to get Smith in a trade? Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com reports they did offer the Chiefs one of the team's three second-round picks in exchange for Smith—possibly a better offer than Washington's if the Browns were willing to throw in a player.

Don Wright/Associated Press/Associated Press/Associated Press

Here's the thing, though: Smith agreed to sign an extension the night this trade was announced, which tells us it's been worked on for a bit. There's no way Smith was going to sign an extension to play in Cleveland—a lack of which would've killed the trade. We pile on the Browns for not making moves, but this one was out of their hands.

• One last note on the trade: Kudos to Chiefs general manager Brett Veach for trading a 33-year-old quarterback with one year left on his deal and getting back a third-rounder and a 22-year-old starting cornerback. The Chiefs don't have a first-rounder after trading up last year to select Patrick Mahomes (now the starting quarterback) but have pick Nos. 54, 78 and 86 to get quality starters and depth players.

• Central Florida linebacker Shaquem Griffin received his invite to the NFL Scouting Combine. The linebacker with one hand was one of the nation's best defenders this past season and put on a strong performance at the Senior Bowl but was not in the initial round of invites. Expect Griffin to be one of the biggest stories in Indianapolis in early March.

• The scheme or talent around Washington State quarterback Luke Falk didn't help him much in Pullman this season, but NFL scouts are taking notice of the senior quarterback. Multiple NFL scouts told me this week that Falk interviewed well at the Senior Bowl, and they think his character, leadership and football IQ could push him up boards—maybe even into the second day of the draft.

• Ohio State offensive tackle Jamarco Jones politely declined his Senior Bowl invite, opting instead to train for the combine, but I'm not so sure he needed the week in Mobile, Alabama, anyway. Jones has shown incredible awareness and strength as a blocker on tape and is already one of the class' top tackles. Additionally, he's training with LeCharles Bentley, which will boost his draft value. It might be a hot take, but I like Jones more than overhyped players such as Oklahoma's Orlando Brown at the same position.

• Where will Lamar Jackson be drafted?

Stephen B. Morton/Associated Press/Associated Press

The 2016 Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback is uniquely talented and an exciting player, but he's also polarizing. One quarterback coach told me this week, "Supply versus demand means he's probably a first-rounder whether you think he should be or not."

• There is a lot of media love for Central Florida cornerback Mike Hughes, and while his film does flash huge potential, he's not there yet as a top-tier prospect or a first-rounder on my board. I asked a well-respected NFL defensive coordinator about Hughes, and he said, "That's a dude you draft and redshirt. Maybe he returns kicks for you year one, but he's not ready to play corner."

• It's well-known that I'm a fan of Iowa cornerback Josh Jackson, which led one director of player personnel to text me this: "Aren't you afraid of a dude that's started one year and had all those picks [8] but couldn't get on the field until now?" 

Butch Dill/Associated Press

• I sent out a text to around 10 NFL executives and scouts this week asking one burning question: "Which player are we in the media overrating?" Not everyone replied, but here are the votes from those who did:

• 1 vote: Josh Allen (QB, Wyoming)
• 1 vote: Connor Williams (OT, Texas)
• 2 votes: Vita Vea (DL, Washington)
• 3 votes: Baker Mayfield (QB, Oklahoma)

The Big Board

Senior Bowl week is all about re-evaluating what we've seen on film and then going home to watch more film on those players. Given some time this week to catch up on the top prospects, I've shifted my rankings. If you notice a cluster of players at the same position, that's because I'm trying to decide the order of those prospects.

1. RB Saquon Barkley, Penn State

2. DB Minkah Fitzpatrick, Alabama

3. OG Quenton Nelson, Notre Dame

4. EDGE Bradley Chubb, North Carolina State

5. QB Sam Darnold, USC

6. QB Josh Rosen, UCLA

7. QB Josh Allen, Wyoming

8. CB Denzel Ward, Ohio State

9. LB Tremaine Edmunds, Virginia Tech

10. LB Roquan Smith, Georgia 

11. OT Connor Williams, Texas

12. CB Josh Jackson, Iowa

13. QB Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma

14. RB Derrius Guice, LSU

15. WR Calvin Ridley, Alabama

16. S Derwin James, FSU

17. RB Ronald Jones II, USC

18. LB Rashaan Evans, Alabama

19. DL Maurice Hurst, Michigan

20. EDGE Harold Landry, Boston College

21. CB Isaiah Oliver, Colorado

22. C Billy Price, Ohio State

23. OT Mike McGlinchey, Notre Dame

24. WR Courtland Sutton, SMU

25. LB Malik Jefferson, Texas

26. DL Da'Ron Payne, Alabama

27. S Ronnie Harrison, Alabama

28. EDGE Sam Hubbard, Ohio State

29. EDGE Marcus Davenport, UTSA

30. DL Vita Vea, Washington

31. EDGE Arden Key, LSU

32. CB Carlon Davis, Auburn

33. RB Sony Michel, Georgia

34. OT Kolton Miller, UCLA

35. C James Daniels, Iowa

36. TE Dallas Goedert, South Dakota State

37. DL Harrison Phillips, Stanford

38. DL Derrick Nnadi, FSU

39. OG Isaiah Wynn, Georgia

40. WR Christian Kirk, Texas A&M

41. LB Leighton Vander Esch, Boise State

42. WR D.J. Moore, Maryland

43. S Justin Reid, Stanford

44. TE Mark Andrews, Oklahoma

45. OG Will Hernandez, UTEP

46. CB Mike Hughes, UCF

47. CB Jaire Alexander, Louisville

48. S Kyzir White, West Virginia

49. WR James Washington, Oklahoma State

50. TE Mike Gesicki, Penn State

Parting Shots

10. New Tennessee Titans head coach Mike Vrabel made a splash hire when he added Matt LaFleur as his offensive coordinator this week. LaFleur, who spent last year as the Los Angeles Rams offensive coordinator, made the move because he'll add play-calling duties in Nashville.

LaFleur is a name I highlighted last year as an up-and-comer and future head coach. He's been groomed under Kyle Shanahan in both Houston and Washington and then worked under Sean McVay in both Washington and Los Angeles. As far as offensive coaches go, there's no better current NFL duo to have worked under.

Vrabel, as a former NFL linebacker and defensive coach, will focus on his side of the ball and likely give LaFleur room to work on the offense. The two will be a fun pairing as young, energetic, aggressive coaches.

9. Is Aaron Rodgers mad? The Green Bay Packers better hope not, given he's already the NFL's most underpaid player (he's No. 12 on the list of quarterbacks). In an interview with Golic and Wingo on ESPN radio, Rodgers went in on the surprise firing of his quarterback coach, Alex Van Pelt (via ESPN's Jason Wilde):

Rodgers had other comments about the state of the Packers defense in a surprisingly candid interview. The 34-year-old quarterback is signed through the 2019 season but deserves a large extension and a raise.

8. NFL Draft Sleeper No. 1: South Carolina State linebacker Darius Leonard

Leonard was one of the most impressive players at the Senior Bowl. My issue with him on film was a slow read-and-react ability and the fact he's 229 pounds and struggles to get off blockers at times. Leonard helped himself in Mobile, and I see him as a potential Day 3 pick with the tools to become an NFL starter.

7. NFL Draft Sleeper No. 2: Miami defensive end Chad Thomas

Chad Thomas was thankfully added to the Senior Bowl roster late and had good performance in the Shrine Game one week prior, but I have a second-round grade on him. He should have been a first-wave add to the Senior Bowl, not an afterthought. Maybe I'm too high on him, but the 6'5", 277-pounder is an ideal 4-3 defensive end and has the agility to stand up and be a big rush end.          

6. NFL Draft Riser: Washington defensive lineman Vita Vea

Butch Dill/Associated Press/Associated Press

One of the downsides to being a one-man scouting department is you sometimes get an impression of a player and it sticks even if he changes his game. After catching five contests from Vita Vea's 2017 season, I've realized it's time for my report to change. He's a much better pass-rusher than I expected from a 334-pounder and is the best in the class at splitting double-teams to make splash plays in the backfield. Vea is a solid first-rounder. 

5. NFL Draft Faller: West Georgia offensive tackle Desmond Harrison

Leading up to the Senior Bowl, I was excited to finally see Desmond Harrison play against better competition after watching him rag-doll lesser talents for West Georgia. But the athletic, former Texas Longhorn dropped out of the Senior Bowl due to injury. That leaves a big unanswered question in his scouting report since the NFL Scouting Combine features no one-on-one drills. It also doesn't help that the 6'6" Harrison weighed in at 279 pounds. 

4. Patrick Mahomes is now the Kansas City Chiefs' starting quarterback, so I thought it'd be fun to revisit his predraft scouting report from last year: 

Positives

The best arm in the 2017 draft class belongs to Patrick Mahomes II of Texas Tech. A two-year starter at Texas Tech, Mahomes pushed Baker Mayfield and Davis Webb out of Lubbock to earn the starting job. He is able to push the ball all over the field and can do so from multiple platforms with his great arm. A shotgun-only quarterback in college, Mahomes is athletic enough to learn to take snaps from under center. Velocity on all throws is very impressive for Mahomes, who understands how to dial up spin and get the ball through tight coverage. He’s a dual-threat player with the strength and speed to be effective as a designed runner or when getting free from pressure. A natural leader, Mahomes has the confidence and poise to be great under pressure. He’s rarely rattled, and it shows on the field. The son of a former MLB pitcher, Mahomes has great athletic genes. In 2016, he threw 41 touchdowns to just 10 interceptions and hit on 65.7 percent of his throws. Mahomes’ tools are the best of any quarterback in this class.

Negatives

Mahomes has some Brett Favre in his game—the good and bad kind. He loves to launch off his back foot and throw without lining up his hips or shoulders. And while he has the strength to do this, his accuracy suffers on downfield throws when his body isn’t right. Learning to line up his body could fix this, but he has to prove he can do that when under pressure. You also don’t want to completely take away the gunslinger mentality and athletic traits and try to force Mahomes to become someone he’s not. Mahomes, coming from the Texas Tech Air Raid offense, will have to fight against a trend of unsuccessful quarterbacks in the NFL coming from that system. He’ll have to adjust to making play calls in the huddle and reading the defense on his own without the aid of the coaches holding up cards on the sideline. 

Mahomes needed to be drafted into a situation where he could learn and develop. He got that with the Chiefs and Andy Reid. I don't adjust my rankings post-draft, but if I accounted for landing spots, Mahomes' would have ranked as the 2017 quarterback class' best.

3. Anything good on TV this Sunday night?

Although I don't cover the NFL like I used to, I'm still going to throw in my two cents on who will win the Super Bowl. It's no surprise that I'm picking the New England Patriots to win, 27-23, over the Philadelphia Eagles. I'm a closet Patriots fan, but they're also too well-coached to lose this game. The Eagles defense is equally impressive, but the last two Tom Brady Super Bowls have convinced me he's invincible.

2. If you haven't yet, you'll want to check out the Stick to Football podcast—mostly because I have to get a tattoo if Allen isn't a top-10 pick this year. Stick to Football Fridays get a little wild sometimes, and I was told to put my money where my mouth is. You can hear that and more on iTunes or Stitcher. 

1. The Stick to Football Wednesday episode is a good one this week, featuring Gurley and updated big boards from me and Connor Rogers. On the Friday morning show, we fixed the Miami Dolphins and went in depth debating the Smith trade.

Matt Miller covers the NFL and NFL draft for Bleacher Report.