Super Bowl 2018: MVP Favorites and Predictions for Eagles vs. Patriots

The 2018 Super Bowl between the Philadelphia Eagles and New England Patriots isn't the easiest to unpackage. 

In large part, hesitation from fans or would-be bettors makes plenty of sense after a strange season in which teams such as the Jacksonville Jaguars looked like serious contenders while usual suspects such as the Denver Broncos and Green Bay Packers were shrug-worthy affairs. 

Making things even more complex is the underdog angle here. Tom Brady and the Patriots continue to justify dynasty status, while the Eagles hit the big game in Minnesota without an MVP favorite under center but a team that has bullied its way through the tougher conference. 

When it comes to the NFL's farewell game for the season, difficulty in nailing down predictions usually equates to a great experience, at least, as two teams expected to make it this far did so through unexpected means. 

2018 Super Bowl

Date: Sunday, Feb. 4

Location: U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota

Kickoff Time: 6:30 p.m. ET

TV: NBC

Odds: Patriots -5, Over/Under 48

Perhaps the strangest thing about this game is trying to figure out which individual steps up and seizes the MVP award. 

According to OddsShark, quarterbacks predictably lead the way in the odds department, with little in the way of skill positions for the Eagles making the list:  

• Tom Brady minus-125
• Nick Foles plus-325
• Rob Gronkowski plus-850
• Dion Lewis plus-1800
• Danny Amendola plus-1800
• Jay Ajayi plus-1800
• Zach Ertz plus-1800

Brady winning would be the most obvious scenario, regardless of the weapons around him. It's an important disclaimer to slap on here because the man threw for two touchdowns in a 24-20 escape of Jacksonville in the AFC title game despite his throwing hand taped up due to a gash and Rob Gronkowski in the locker room with an injury. 

In total, Brady has five touchdowns and no picks over two playoff games coming off a season in which he threw for 32 scores and eight picks while taking 35 sacks and needing to use a short passing game to compensate for an iffy rushing attack. 

Given the disparity between the quarterbacks here, it's almost surprising to see Nick Foles as the guy right behind Brady in the odds department for some individual hardware. A quarterback is a quarterback, but Foles is no Carson Wentz. 

Which isn't to say Foles reeling in some individual hardware is impossible. After all, we are talking about the guy who shocked the world with a trio of touchdown passes in the NFC title game while stomping the Minnesota Vikings, 38-7. He's also rocking a completion percentage north of 76 percent in both playoff games so far. 

Part of the secret to Foles' success so far is superb coaching, with offensive coordinator Frank Reich installing some read-pass options (RPO) to keep things simple. 

"Everybody thinks RPO, they think young, athletic college quarterback—and that's not what the RPO game is all centered around," Reich said, according to ESPN.com's Tim McManus. "It's centered around accurate throwing, good decision-making and good execution. When we use it, Nick has shown a great aptitude of doing that very well."

Clearly, though, oddsmakers like Brady's skill positions more than Foles' options. It's not hard to see why, not with Gronkowski leading the team in receiving this year at 69 catches for 1,084 yards and eight touchdowns. He's a mismatch nightmare for defenses and somebody who could break the biggest game of the year wide open on a few plays. 

It's a little more interesting to see Dion Lewis come in right behind Gronk, though he did capitalize on the first 16-game year of his career with 896 yards and six touchdowns on an average of five yards per carry. Likely based off his catching the two touchdowns to upend Jacksonville, Danny Amendola comes in right behind Lewis. 

Only then do we see Eagles skill players come back into the equation, with running back Jay Ajayi sitting in a nice spot likely because he found room for 73 yards on 18 carries against Minnesota's elite front. Leading receiver Zach Ertz, he of 74 catches for 824 yards and eight scores in the regular season, also makes sense after inhaling all eight targets for 93 yards in the NFC title game. 

Perhaps most interesting of all is the longer odds for Eagles wideout Alshon Jeffery, a guy who scored nine touchdowns after arriving in Philadelphia this year. He's caught nine of 10 targets over two postseason games so far and scored two touchdowns against the Vikings, a game-changing ability often capable of reeling in Super Bowl MVP. 

Speaking of the award itself, the process doesn't go unpredictable often. The major outlier was 2014 when Seattle Seahawks linebacker Malcolm Smith won it. Otherwise, the winning list since 2010 reads Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, Von Miller and Brady.

That last name is likely on the way to another. 

While oddsmakers think the Eagles will keep this closer than most might expect, this game features the Patriots and boils down to something like this: arguably the greatest coach and quarterback of all time vs. a team starting a backup quarterback. 

It's never so simple, but a surging New England defense that has improved as the season has gone on can slow a quarterback like Foles trotting out a simplistic offense. And when all else fails, Brady using his bevy of targets, whether it's Amendola all over the field, Lewis out of the backfield or Gronkowski on ladder-climbing attempts, will be too much for the Eagles to handle. 

Like they did against the Jaguars, look for Brady and the Patriots to eventually figure it out. And when Brady pulls them ahead, Foles isn't leading a pass-heavy comeback charge. 

Prediction: Patriots 28-20, Brady wins MVP 

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Odds according to OddsShark.