The Biggest Overachievers in College Basketball So Far in 2017-18
Bruce Pearl's Auburn Tigers have played this entire season without two starters, yet they are one of just three teams in men's college basketball with fewer than two losses. They were expected to fall to pieces sans Austin Wiley and Danjel Purifoy, but they are instead one of the top overachieving teams in the country.
Let's point out up front "overachieving" doesn't necessarily mean "probably going to crash and burn in the next two months." In fact, we'd recommend buying stock in all of the players and teams on this list. Rather, these are the guys who are playing much better than most were expecting before the season began.
It's a blend of both teams and players. There are respectable sides who were supposed to be awful as well as championship contenders who were barely considered for the bubble in the preseason.
As for the players, we're talking about guys who have come out of nowhere to rank among the best or most efficient in the nation.
They are listed in no particular order, other than to switch back and forth between teams and individual players.
Honorable Mentions
1 of 10
Oklahoma Sooners and Virginia Cavaliers
Trae Young could get a slide of his own with how incredible he has been, and I certainly did not foresee Oklahoma, ranked fourth in the AP Top 25, playing its way into what is a projected No. 1 seed. Meanwhile, we were much higher on Virginia than most, but seeing the Cavaliers at No. 2 in the AP poll is even a little surprising to us.
However, at the beginning of the offseason, OddsShark gave the Sooners and the Cavaliers 33-1 odds to win the national championship, tied with Florida State and Oregon for the 17th-best odds. Though they ultimately weren't ranked anywhere close to that in the preseason AP poll, there was a point when big things were expected from both of these teams.
Jontay Porter, Missouri
Let me make this clear: No one thought Jontay Porter was going to be a bad player. But a lot of people did think the freshman would take a year to come into his own.
He was a 5-star recruit who reclassified so he could play with older brother, Michael, for one year at Missouri. And when the elder Porter suffered an injury necessitating surgery, a lot of people wrote off Missouri and forgot about the younger sibling. Jontay has been great on both ends of the floor, though, particularly on defense.
Washington Huskies
As far as KenPom.com is concerned, Washington isn't that good. But there's a case to be made that the Huskies (13-5) belong in the conversation for an NCAA tournament bid, thanks in large part to a road win over Kansas. After losing Markelle Fultz from a 9-22 team, no one was expecting this team to finish anything better than 10th in the Pac-12.
Syracuse Orange
Like Washington, Syracuse (13-6, 2-4) is jockeying for an at-large bid, despite expectations of battling for last place in its conference.
Oshae Brissett has been an outstanding freshman addition. Tyus Battle has evolved into a scoring machine. And Paschal Chukwu is finally starting to live up to the hype of being a top-70 recruit in the class of 2014, per 247 Sports' composite rankings. This team struggles on offense, but it is winning a lot of games with relentless defense.
Arizona State Sun Devils
2 of 10
Arizona State has come crashing back to earth in Pac-12 play. The Sun Devils are 2-3 with losses to Colorado and Oregon. And their two wins came by a combined margin of five points against Utah and Oregon State.
If they can get back to shooting as they did in nonconference play, though, they need to be taken seriously as a threat to win the national championship.
If you've been watching college hoops for the past two months, that isn't surprising news. For those of you who teleported in after the college football season ended, however, it has to be a bit jarring to see Bobby Hurley's bunch among the top teams in the country.
After all, Arizona State had just 15 wins in each of the last two seasons and often wasn't even competitive against tournament-caliber teams. The Sun Devils were No. 126 on KenPom last year before losing two key starters—Torian Graham and Obinna Oleka—to exhausted eligibility.
Even in what always seemed destined to be a down year for the Pac-12, good luck going back and finding anyone who thought Arizona State might be a top-four team in this league.
Yet, Arizona State had a road win over Kansas, neutral-court wins over Xavier, Kansas State and St. John's and home wins over San Diego State and Vanderbilt in the process of starting out 12-0. Despite recent struggles, the Sun Devils still have one of the most efficient offenses in the nation, led by Tra Holder, Shannon Evans II and Kodi Justice.
Lack of defense remains a problem for this squad, but as demonstrated in the comeback win against Oregon State, this offense can catch fire and eliminate that concern at a moment's notice. And at least the D isn't anywhere near as bad as it was last year.
Udoka Azubuike, Kansas
3 of 10
Even before there was an inkling Billy Preston might not touch the court this season, it had been presumed for the entire offseason that Udoka Azubuike would be the most important player for the 2017-18 Kansas Jayhawks.
That doesn't mean we thought he would be this team's best player, but with all due respect to Mitch Lightfoot, it was clear from one glance at the depth chart Kansas wouldn't be doing much of anything this season if Azubuike was unable to play 25 to 30 minutes per game.
Lo and behold, he is playing those minutes as one of the most efficient players in the country, dunking at will and avoiding the careless mistakes that plagued his abbreviated freshman year.
Prior to suffering a season-ending injury in December 2016, Azubuike was a liability. He committed 8.7 fouls and 4.2 turnovers per 40 minutes, and despite getting to the free-throw line often, he shot just 37.9 percent. He did block a good number of shots and was a solid rebounder, but his KenPom O-rating was a subpar 90.4.
Through 18 games this year, that O-rating is 130.7, thanks in large part to a nation-leading 78.1 effective field-goal percentage.
Azubuike has also drastically reduced his mistakes to 4.3 fouls and 2.3 turnovers per 40 minutes. And though his free-throw shooting (42.2 percent) is still a disaster, his rate of free-throw attempts per field-goal attempts is approximately 35 percent of what it was last year. In other words, he's doing a much better job of getting the ball into the hoop before opponents can foul him.
Because he is so dominant in the paint, the entire Kansas offense is thriving. The four-out, one-in offense looks a lot like what Duke ran en route to the 2015 national championship, when Jahlil Okafor's presence down low made it easier for the many shooters to get open looks along the perimeter.
That isn't to say Azubuike is anywhere near the draft prospect Okafor was, but he is certainly more of a force than anyone was realistically anticipating.
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Clemson Tigers
4 of 10
Clemson was the well-documented "almost doesn't count" team last season. The Tigers went 4-12 in games decided by six points or fewer, including six losses by a one-possession margin.
Despite spending just about the entire season in the KenPom top 40, they went 17-16 and were probably never as close to the NCAA tournament picture as their computer resume suggested.
From that team, Clemson lost its star stretch 4 (Jaron Blossomgame), a career 41.3-percent three-point shooting wing (Avry Holmes) and a big man who led the nation in offensive rebound percentage (Sidy Djitte). Considering all the Tigers really added this offseason was an OK graduate transfer (Mark Donnal), all signs pointed to this team going from competitively disappointing to easily one of the five worst teams in the ACC.
Instead, the Tigers (15-3) are having their most successful season since starting 22-2 in 1986-87.
Winning the close games is a big part of it, as they are 4-1 in games decided by six points or fewer. But Clemson is also occasionally laying the smack down on the opposition, winning nine games by at least a 14-point margin.
All five starters are scoring in double figures while making significant contributions on the defensive end. Donte Grantham is leading the way with a suddenly efficient senior season. He was a 32.0 percent three-point shooter in his first three seasons and a 38.0 percent shooter from the field. This year, those numbers are 42.6 and 58.4, respectively, as he has become a lethal weapon both inside and outside the arc.
Former Texas A&M transfer Elijah Thomas—one of five transfers in Clemson's primary eight-man rotation—has also made huge positive strides since debuting for the Tigers in December 2016. Somehow, he has nearly doubled his rate of blocks per 40 minutes while almost cutting in half his rate of fouls committed. He is also rebounding and converting from the free-throw line much better than ever before.
After six straight seasons of missing the NCAA tournament, Clemson was the top No. 3 seed in my most recent projected bracket. Possibly finishing in the top 10 nationally after not being expected to finish top 10 in the ACC is quite the achievement.
Kevin Holland, Southern Mississippi
5 of 10
Southern Mississippi is still a year or two from being remotely relevant again, as it continues to rebuild from the shambles former coach Donnie Tyndall left behind.
However, there has been tangible improvement this year. After three consecutive seasons finishing outside the KenPom top 300 with fewer than 10 wins, the Golden Eagles are 9-10 and are rated No. 219 on KenPom.
One of the biggest reasons for their improvement from being atrocious to slightly below the national average has been the play of Kevin Holland.
As a freshman, Holland was one of the least valuable players ever. Per Sports Reference, he was one of only five players in the past nine seasons to play at least 550 minutes with an O-rating of 64 or worse. He finished that season with 40 points and 39 turnovers committed. He shot 19.0 percent from three-point range.
After a redshirt season, he wasn't much better last year. Per KenPom, he had an O-rating of 84.7 and an effectively field-goal percentage of 38.4.
Out of nowhere, he has become one of the most efficient players in the country.
Holland has an O-rating of 133.8, which ranks 16th nationally. He is shooting 54.7 percent from three-point range (against Division I opponents) for both an effective field-goal percentage (72.5) and a true-shooting percentage (72.4) that ranks No. 2 in the nation, trailing only Kansas' high-percentage dunk machine, Udoka Azubuike.
The last time a basketball player made a transformation this drastic was probably in Space Jam.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
6 of 10
Before the season began, Texas Tech was not on anyone's radar. The Red Raiders did not receive a single vote in the preseason AP Top 25. Not only were they not in my projected NCAA tournament field in early November, but they weren't even one of the "10 others strongly considered."
When they blew out Northwestern in the Hall of Fame Tip-Off championship just 10 days into the season, it felt like a major upset. But if they were to play on a neutral floor today, Texas Tech would likely be favored by a double-digit margin.
Sure, a big reason for that is Northwestern being arguably the biggest underachiever of the season, but it's also because the Red Raiders (15-2) unexpectedly look like a team that could win the national championship.
The defense is the crux of their success.
They rank second in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency and fifth in turnover percentage. Despite an average tempo, only one opponent has scored more than 76 points in a game against Texas Tech—and Seton Hall had to shoot 55 percent from three-point range and snag 41.7 percent of possible offensive rebounds to do so. The Red Raiders shut down Kansas in Phog Allen Fieldhouse and were able to stifle West Virginia in a physical win.
But with the exception of the past two games, Texas Tech has been rock-solid on offense, too.
Keenan Evans has quietly been national-player-of-the-year good, while freshmen Jarrett Culver and Zhaire Smith have been far more valuable than should have been expected from their recruiting rankings. It's not quite the Big Three that teams like Duke or Arizona can boast, but against the backdrop of one of the nation's best defenses, it's plenty effective.
We will see how well the Red Raiders hold up through the remaining seven weeks of the Big 12 gauntlet, but sitting in the AP Top 10 in mid-January is not something we saw coming.
Ben Emelogu, SMU
7 of 10
Ben Emelogu shot well as a freshman at Virginia Tech, averaging 10.5 points per game and making 37.0 percent of his three-point attempts. But when he transferred to SMU, it appeared he left his shooting stroke in Blacksburg.
In Emelogu's first season with the Mustangs in 2014-15, he shot 26.7 percent from downtown and 27.7 percent from the field. He averaged just 2.8 points per game. He was a starter for four of the first five games, but he came off the bench the rest of the year and didn't score in double figures once.
His second season was only marginally better. He improved to 33.3 percent from the field and 29.2 percent from three-point range while averaging 4.3 points per game. Still, he was a far cry from what he was with the Hokies, and we had given up hope of him becoming that guy.
This year, the dude cannot miss.
Emelogu is shooting 58.9 percent from three-point range. He is one of 11 players averaging at least four three-point attempts per game and making at least 50 percent of them. He is the only member of the group who is shooting better than 53 percent.
To further exhibit how rare this is, Duquesne's Micah Mason (2013-14) is the only other player dating back to 1999-2000 to shoot at least 55 percent while averaging at least four three-point attempts per game.
And remember, we're talking about a guy who couldn't even hit 30 percent of his triples in either of his previous two seasons. For crying out loud, if you add his sophomore and junior year three-point percentages together, it's still 3 percent worse than what Emelogu is shooting as a senior.
This isn't entirely unprecedented, though. If you'll recall, Virginia's Justin Anderson could barely hit the broad side of a barn from three-point range for two seasons before becoming one of the most lethal shooters in the country; he was drafted No. 21 overall after that year.
If Emelogu keeps shooting anywhere close to this well for another eight weeks, maybe he'll get a shot at the NBA, too.
Drake Bulldogs
8 of 10
"Probably, again, will be the worst team in the Missouri Valley."
Those were the words of CBSSports.com's Matt Norlander when he put Drake at No. 287 in his preseason ranking of all 351 D-I teams. It's hard to blame him, though, since this team has been just plain awful for the past three years. Drake's average KenPom rank during that time was No. 265, and it changed head coaches this offseason for the second time in two years.
But while Iowa and Iowa State languish near the bottom of their respective major conferences and Northern Iowa recently snapped a seven-game losing streak, the Bulldogs are the only D-I team in the state of Iowa that hasn't been a disappointment.
In fact, Drake is 11-9 and in sole possession of first place in the MVC. The Bulldogs almost won a road game against Minnesota (before the Golden Gophers started to really crash and burn), forced double overtime in a tough road game against Wyoming and almost beat Colorado on a neutral floor.
Drake isn't a great team by any stretch of the imagination. At no point will you find me entertaining the idea of the Bulldogs as an at-large candidate. But by their standards in recent years, this is a huge success. You could even argue it's the most surprising turnaround in the country, even though a team that was on the fringe of the preseason top 100 competing for a title is a bigger story.
Consider this nugget for proof: Drake improved to 9-7 against D-I opponents on Jan. 6. At that point in each of the previous three years, the Bulldogs had a combined record of 8-32 against D-I foes.
Keita Bates-Diop and the Ohio State Buckeyes
9 of 10
When Ohio State fired head coach Thad Matta in June—long after the coaching carousel usually stops revolving—it seemed like a decision rooted in the expectation this was going to be another lost season.
The Buckeyes had been getting steadily worse since the 2010-11 season and were losing key players as transfers at an alarming rate. A third straight year without an NCAA tournament berth would have been the final straw for Matta. Rather than waiting until March to begin that rebuilding process, they hit the reset button over the summer.
Little did they know Keita Bates-Diop would return from a stress fracture to become one of the most unstoppable wrecking balls in the nation.
Other guys on this team have been pleasant surprises. Kaleb Wesson has been outstanding in the paint as a freshman. C.J. Jackson is twice the offensive weapon he was last season. And who could have possibly guessed that Andrew Dakich would shoot 65.7 percent from the field and play 17 minutes per game after scoring a total of 22 points in his first three seasons with Michigan?
But Bates-Diop is the star who makes it all possible.
Ohio State has played 11 games since the beginning of December, winning 10 of them; Bates-Diop has been the KenPom game MVP in all 11 games. During that stretch, he has averaged 22.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, 2.0 blocks and 1.5 steals while shooting better than 40 percent from three-point range. As much as Trae Young has already won the Wooden Award, Bates-Diop is already cemented as the Big Ten POY.
Though the Buckeyes are in great shape, their overall resume is still a bit fragile. Their best nonconference win was either the home game against William & Mary or a neutral-court game against a short-handed Stanford team. Coupling that with four losses yields a lackluster nonconference resume. If Ohio State were to lose two of its next six games (at Northwestern, vs. Minnesota, vs. Nebraska, vs. Penn State, vs. Indiana, vs. Illinois), things could get a little shaky.
Given how well the Buckeyes have been passing the eye test for the past seven weeks, though, it's hard to imagine them losing any of those games, which would mean a 12-0 start in Big Ten play—which hasn't been done since Illinois almost won the national championship in 2005 (before losing to UNC in the final).
Not bad for what was supposed to be a lost season.
Supposed SEC Bottom-Feeders
10 of 10
Everyone expected the SEC to be better than usual. The league has not sent more than five teams to the NCAA tournament since 2008, but it wasn't uncommon to find folks suggesting seven or eight teams could dance this year.
But several of the teams in position to do so were not among those expected to be good.
In the preseason SEC media poll, Tennessee was projected to finish 13th out of 14 teams. And in Matt Norlander's aforementioned ranking of all 351 teams, the Volunteers were placed No. 118.
As of Tuesday morning, though, they are the highest-ranked SEC team on KenPom at No. 14 in the nation. The Vols have a neutral-court win over Purdue and home wins over Kentucky and Texas A&M and are becoming a team that needs to be taken seriously as a Final Four threat.
In dead last in said SEC media poll was LSU, which already has four KenPom top-50 wins. While most experts loved the Will Wade hire and had high expectations for freshman point guard Tremont Waters, the predominant sentiment was this would be a rebuilding year in preparation for a nice run in 2018-19. Instead, the Tigers (11-6) are a legitimate bubble team who can score with anyone.
And then there's 16-1 Auburn. The Tigers were originally projected to finish in ninth place in the SEC, but that was before the news Austin Wiley and Danjel Purifoy would be suspended indefinitely. Had the poll been conducted after we knew the projected starting frontcourt would not be available, Auburn would have been in that basement with Tennessee and LSU.
Rather, the Tigers are the team to beat, and they have a resume worthy of consideration for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament.
Because these three teams have been so much better than advertised, 13 of the 14 SEC teams entered play Tuesday with an overall record at least three games above .500. Including LSU and Georgia as the first two teams out, there were 10 teams from this league in my most recent projected bracket.
There's a strong case to be made that this is the second-best league in the country behind only the Big 12.
Kerry Miller covers men's basketball and college football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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