Predicting Final Landing Spots for Top 10 Available MLB Offseason Targets
Glaciers, garden snails and Bengie Molina trying to leg out a triple are just a few things that can claim to have moved faster than this winter's offseason market.
But it's not over yet. If anything, the steady encroachment of spring training figures to finally get the hot stove to live up to its supposed warmth.
So, how about final predictions on the landing spots for the 10 biggest available stars?
The list includes five free agents who definitely are available and five trade candidates who should be available. Their predicted landing spots are based on a few deductions stemming from team needs and various hot stove tea leaves.
Starting with the free agents, let's get to it.
Free Agent: Lorenzo Cain, OF
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Lorenzo Cain, an athletic marvel who's averaged 5.1 wins above replacement per year since 2014, is finally becoming a hot commodity.
According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Milwaukee Brewers are interested in signing the 31-year-old. So are the Texas Rangers, who ESPN's Jerry Crasnick says have "ramped up" their pursuit.
One wonders if both clubs have sensed that Cain's price tag has dropped. A related story might be how the team that needs him the most doesn't seem too interested in him. As great as Cain would look in center field for the San Francisco Giants, the rumor mill has them circling trades for outfielders instead.
Of course, that could just be a smokescreen. Likewise, Milwaukee and Texas' interest in Cain could be a nod-and-a-wink to free-agent starting pitchers. Both need rotation help a lot more than a new center fielder.
Instead, how about the Toronto Blue Jays?
They're in the mix, according to Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. Cain would bring stability to an all-or-nothing lineup. Slotting him into right field (he excels there, too) alongside Kevin Pillar would greatly upgrade a defense that struggled last year, much to the delight of a pitching staff that's already solid.
Prediction: Blue Jays
Free Agent: Jake Arrieta, SP
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Per Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago, Jake Arrieta began his free-agent foray with an asking price of six years and $160 million.
Spoiler alert: That's not happening.
This winter's market isn't very conducive to such big asks becoming reality. On top of that, Arrieta's good-not-great 2016 and 2017 seasons have brought his value down out of the rarefied air it was in after he won the National League Cy Young Award in 2015. And on top of that is the fact he's nearly 32 years old.
Even still, $100 million should be within Arrieta's reach. So of the teams that have been linked to him, the ideal suitor is one that: can't do better, have a true need for him and, above all, can afford him.
The one that makes the most sense is the Rangers.
In Matt Moore, Mike Minor and Doug Fister, they've added some nice depth to their shaky rotation. They also saved some money that they can spend on a top-of-the-rotation type to plant ahead of Cole Hamels and Martin Perez, who's currently injured.
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reported that the Rangers were interested in Arrieta in November. Were they to rekindle that interest, they could find the Texas native more than willing to reciprocate.
Prediction: Rangers
Free Agent: Eric Hosmer, 1B
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On average, Eric Hosmer has been half as valuable (2.4 WAR) as Cain since 2014. That's according to Baseball Reference, anyway. At FanGraphs, it's even worse.
But if nothing else, the 28-year-old Hosmer is significantly younger than his possibly soon-to-be former teammate. And with four Gold Gloves, a Silver Slugger, an All-Star MVP and a World Series ring to his name, he's not without excuses for team executives to look at the metrics and say, "Nah."
This helps explain the latest report on his market. According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Hosmer has two seven-year offers in hand: one from the San Diego Padres worth $140 million, and one from the Royals worth $147 million.
Assuming this is accurate, the Royals have a slight edge in money to go with their huge edge in familiarity. The Padres can't beat the latter, and they might not have the funds to move the former needle enough to make up for that.
It's hard to find fits elsewhere. The Boston Red Sox opted for a cheap first base fix when they re-signed Mitch Moreland. The St. Louis Cardinals are interested, per Morosi, but have bigger fish on their radar. Since first base is a star-studded position, most other teams are set.
Prediction: Royals
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Free Agent: J.D. Martinez, OF
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Another tidbit courtesy of Nightengale is that the Red Sox have a five-year offer out to J.D. Martinez. If true, it's safe to assume he hasn't accepted it yet because he believes he can do better.
After all, he is coming off a year in which he led MLB with a .690 slugging percentage and blasted 45 home runs in only 119 games. So it goes, as he ranks as one of the very best hitters in MLB since 2014.
But due to concerns about his defense and durability, Martinez's value is strictly tied to his bat. The fact that power is said bat's top selling point isn't as big a deal anymore, as power has gone from being nowhere to being everywhere.
If the question is which contenders truly need Martinez's power, the list basically comes down to Boston and San Francisco. They finished last in their respective leagues in home runs in 2017. Because both are trying to contend, neither wants to do that again.
Trouble is, the Giants would be asking Martinez to patrol one of MLB's bigger outfields at AT&T Park. They also may not be willing to blow the $14.6 million they have left in luxury tax space.
The Red Sox are already over the tax. If they're going to pay penalties anyway, they might as well make sure it's worth it by signing Martinez and slotting him in as their designated hitter.
Prediction: Red Sox
Free Agent: Yu Darvish, SP
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Don't let Yu Darvish's dual World Series duds fool you. He's one of the best pitchers in baseball, and the top player on the free-agent market.
The 31-year-old had a 3.86 ERA over 186.2 innings in the 2017 regular season, and he owns a 3.42 ERA over 832.1 innings in five major league seasons. Along the way, he's whiffed an MLB-best 11.0 batters per nine innings.
In theory, Darvish's value is further bolstered by how the midseason trade that sent him from the Rangers to the Los Angeles Dodgers barred him from a qualifying offer and, thus, being tied to draft-pick compensation.
There's just one problem: He's a very expensive player in a market full of anti-John Hammonds. Sparing expense is the name of the game.
The team that might buck the trend is the Chicago Cubs. To sum up my complete thoughts on the matter: They can afford Darvish, they need him, and they might just be the team that can squeeze further potential out of him.
The reigning champion Houston Astros are another possibility, but they don't have as much incentive as the Cubs to up the ante. The New York Yankees are also possible, according to Heyman, but they want to get under the luxury tax. And if the Rangers sign Arrieta, a reunion with Darvish would go out the window.
Prediction: Cubs
Trade Candidate: Gerrit Cole, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
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Eschewing the norms of the sea-faring breed, the Pittsburgh Pirates are open to being plundered this winter. Per ESPN's Buster Olney, they're discussing deals involving Gerrit Cole, Andrew McCutchen and Josh Harrison.
In light of his 27 years of age, two additional seasons of club control and lively-as-ever fastball, Cole is the most desirable of the bunch. And by all accounts, nobody wants him more than the Yankees.
Do the Yankees need him? Not really. But Cole wouldn't make them any worse. And they absolutely have the pieces to trade for him, and his salary wouldn't wipe out their $16 million in remaining tax space.
According to Levine, the Yankees have competition for Cole in the form of the Cubs. But that would require them to trade assets within the NL Central. Besides, it reeks of a smokescreen to drive Darvish's price down.
There's no immediate hurry for the Pirates to trade Cole, of course. But the longer they wait, the more his controllability-related value will dry up. In light of his inconsistent track record, that may not be the worst thing that could happen.
Indications are that it wouldn't take much to do a deal with the Yankees right now. Here's thinking the Pirates will come around.
Prediction: Yankees
Trade Candidate: J.T. Realmuto, C, Miami Marlins
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There might be a widespread need for convincing that J.T. Realmuto is a star worthy of this list.
So, here goes.
He's a 26-year-old catcher who's gotten better every year, in part because his skill set doesn't have weaknesses. With a strong arm, quick legs and developing power, he's the most athletic catcher in the game. He's also an above-average hitter and, per Baseball Prospectus, turned into a solid pitch framer in 2017.
One more thing: He's under club control through 2020.
Craig Mish of SiriusXM reported that Realmuto wants out of a Miami Marlins organization that's already jettisoned Dee Gordon, Marcell Ozuna and NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton. Joe Frisaro of MLB.com, however, hears the Marlins will only move Realmuto for a "huge overpay."
This is perhaps bad news for the Washington Nationals. As much as they need a catching upgrade, they might balk at sending a boatload of long-term assets to another NL East team.
Otherwise, it's a matter of which team could benefit from a catching upgrade and also has the incentive and young talent to meet Miami's asking price. To this end, it's hard not to like the Astros. They're interested, according to Heyman. Were they to do a deal, they'd have yet another young building block for a lineup that's already loaded with them.
Prediction: Astros
Trade Candidate: Michael Fulmer, SP, Detroit Tigers
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Teams looking to trade for a long-term starter might prefer Chris Archer. But his availability is...well, hazy.
As Plan Bs go, Michael Fulmer is a gem. He was the 2016 AL Rookie of the Year and owns a 3.45 ERA over 323.2 innings after two seasons in the majors. He's 24 years old and under club control through 2022.
Teams generally hold on to players like this, but the Detroit Tigers are going to be rebuilding for some time. They won't surrender Fulmer easily, though. Per Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press, they'll only entertain "lopsided" offers for the right-hander.
Fenech also reported that the Rangers have kicked the tires. Per Nightengale, the Yankees have as well. Other teams with enough prospect depth to swing a deal include the Brewers, Padres, Dodgers, Chicago White Sox and Atlanta Braves.
Of those clubs, the Yankees and the Dodgers are the only ones with a proper motive (i.e., a very attainable goal of winning the 2018 World Series) to blow up their farm systems for Fulmer. Neither really needs him, however. And the Yankees are much more likely to pursue a smaller deal for Cole.
Another stick in the spokes is that Fulmer is currently recovering from elbow surgery. His value won't be back at its peak until he puts that firmly in the past. The Tigers would be wise to hold off on a deal until then.
Prediction: Tigers
Trade Candidate: Christian Yelich, OF, Miami Marlins
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What Michael Fulmer is to the pitching trade market, Christian Yelich is to the hitting trade market.
He's the owner of an .800 career OPS, as well as a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger. He's 26 years old. And he's signed to a contract that runs as far as 2022, where it would max out at a $15 million salary.
Between these things and Yelich's ability to play either left field or center field, his list of fits goes on for a while. The ones that actually have enough pieces to satisfy the Marlins—who, according to Rosenthal, could demand three to four "genuine assets"—includes the Dodgers, Phillies, White Sox, Braves and perhaps the Yankees.
Yet, complications abound.
Since the Marlins control Yelich for five more seasons at dirt-cheap rates, there's no hurry to move him. And as much as the Marlins clearly want to save money, at some point they must consider the danger of not having anybody on their roster to bring fans through the gates at Marlins Park. Or to their own TVs, which is no small consideration with the team's TV contract due to expire after 2020.
Whereas it's possible to imagine the Marlins budging on Realmuto, it's harder to imagine doing that with Yelich. It's easier to imagine his saga dragging out for a while.
Prediction: Marlins
Trade Candidate: Manny Machado, 3B, Baltimore Orioles
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Although the Baltimore Orioles relayed via Nightengale in December that they intend to keep Manny Machado, three things haven't changed.
He's still a super-duper-star, he's still ticketed for free agency after 2018, and the Orioles are a middling team that ought to see the writing on the wall. Thus, Morosi reports that the calls are still coming.
Seemingly anyone and everyone has been linked to the three-time All-Star, who's only 25 years old. The teams that have appeared the most in rumors are probably the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs and White Sox.
However, only the first three will be contending in Machado's final season of club control. Of the three, the Yankees are the only team that can spare the young pitching that the Orioles reportedly crave. And according to Rosenthal, Baltimore owner Peter Angelos doesn't want to see Machado in pinstripes.
It's actually the Cardinals who stand out as the most obvious trading partner for the Orioles. They prefer fellow AL East slugger Josh Donaldson, per Nightengale, but Machado's not much worse and is arguably better. And between Alex Reyes, Luke Weaver, Jack Flaherty, Jordan Hicks and Dakota Hudson, the Cardinals have enough young arms to satisfy Baltimore's trade demands.
Should the Cardinals get Machado, they can give the Cubs a challenge for NL Central supremacy. Sounds like a worthwhile pursuit.
Prediction: Cardinals
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and Baseball Prospectus.
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