College Football Championship 2018: Analyzing Schedule and Playoff Matchups
Between the end of the regular season and start of the 2018 College Football Playoff, all four teams will have had at least four weeks off.
Clemson, Georgia and Oklahoma last played in their respective conference championship games on Dec. 2. Alabama hasn't gone up against another team since a 26-14 loss against Auburn on Nov. 25.
Such a long time off could lead to some rust by the time the Sugar Bowl and Rose Bowl kick off on New Year's Day, but the talent of the teams vying for college football's national championship will make it difficult for these games to disappoint.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
2018 College Football Playoff Championship Semifinals (Jan. 1)
Rose Bowl: No. 2 Oklahoma vs. No. 3 Georgia (5 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Clemson vs. No. 4 Alabama (8:45 p.m. ET, ESPN)
2018 College Football Playoff National Championship (Jan. 8)
Rose Bowl Winner vs. Sugar Bowl Winner (8 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Rose Bowl: No. 2 Oklahoma vs. No. 3 Georgia
Oklahoma and Georgia is a matchup of strength vs strength. The Sooners are led by a high-powered offense that features Heisman-winning quarterback Baker Mayfield, who led FBS with 583.3 yards per game and ranked fourth with 44.9 points per game.
Georgia is building a roster in the mold of what Alabama has under Nick Saban, which isn't surprising since the Bulldogs are coached by former Crimson Tide defensive coordinator Kirby Smart. They ranked fourth in FBS with 270.9 yards allowed per game and fourth in scoring defense (13.2 points per game).
Oklahoma's last appearance in the CFP, two years ago, was a disaster. Clemson racked up 530 yards and 30 first downs in a 37-17 win over the Sooners in the 2015 Orange Bowl.
Even though it's easy to point out the differences in talent and leadership between Georgia quarterback Jake Fromm and former Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson, the Sooners lost two years ago because the Tigers ran for 312 yards.
Georgia has been conservative with its use of Fromm. He attempted fewer than 20 passes in a game seven times this season. Expect the Bulldogs to rely on a heavy dose of running backs Nick Chubb and Sony Michel.
Chubb, in particular, has been a nightmare for opposing defenses to tackle this season, per Pro Football Focus:
Oklahoma only ranks 41st in FBS with 144.2 rushing yards allowed per game, but it's only allowing 4.02 yards per carry.
On the other side, if there is a weak spot on the Georgia defense, it's in the secondary. That unit has been excellent overall, boasting 5.58 yards allowed per attempt and 158.3 passing yards allowed per game, but Missouri quarterback Drew Lock averaged 10.1 yards per attempt and had four touchdown passes in an October matchup.
As Sports Illustrated's Eric Single noted, Lock was the closest thing Georgia faced this season to a Mayfield-style quarterback.
Mayfield has been unstoppable in 2017. The senior quarterback threw for 4,340 yards, 41 touchdowns and completed 71 percent of his passes. All five of his interceptions came in four straight games from Oct. 14 to Nov. 4. He's thrown 13 touchdowns without a pick over the past four games.
Getting into a shootout with the Sooners would be the easiest way for Georgia to lose this game. Their worst scoring game of the season was 29 points against Texas.
If Georgia is able to keep Oklahoma in the range of 20-25 points, it will have a chance to win. If the Sooners start picking apart Smart's defense, Fromm doesn't have a resume that suggests he can keep up in a shootout.
Prediction: Oklahoma 31, Georgia 23
Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Clemson vs. No. 4 Alabama
Of course Clemson and Alabama were going to play in the College Football Playoff. The two programs have played the best game of the college football season in each of the past two years, both in the College Football Playoff National Championship.
This year, their matchup will take place in the semifinal, but there's no reason to expect anything less than another classic battle.
Unlike their previous two games, though, this year's contest doesn't figure to turn into an offensive shootout. The 2016 game saw Alabama win 45-40. Clemson got revenge last year 35-31 by scoring 21 points in the fourth quarter.
Alabama has handled its offense similarly to Georgia. Quarterback Jalen Hurts hasn't been asked to do much in the passing game, attempting fewer than 20 passes in eight games and throwing for 1,940 yards in 12 games.
Hurts does bring a running element to the Crimson Tide offense that Fromm doesn't for Georgia. He ranked second on the team with 768 rushing yards, including three games with more than 100 yards.
Per Sports Illustrated's Daniel Rapaport, Alabama's success on the ground plays right into Clemson's strength on defense:
"Alabama relies heavily on the three-headed ground attack of running backs Damien Harris and Bo Scarbrough and quarterback Jalen Hurts, all of whom have over 500 rushing yards on the season. It's been a successful strategy thus far—the Crimson Tide are 11th in the country with 265.3 rushing yards per game. But Clemson's extremely talented defensive front, led by first-team All-ACCers Clelin Ferrell, Dexter Lawrence and Christian Wilkins, presents a new challenge entirely."
While Saban will try to find the formula to overcome Clemson's defense, Tigers head coach Dabo Swinney has his hands full trying to put quarterback Kelly Bryant in a position to succeed.
Two things Swinney has done this season to maximize Bryant's effectiveness is to run the ball more and line up in the spread option.
"Now Clemson uses fewer offensive snaps per game but runs the ball 1.5 times more than last year," SB Nation's Ian Boyd said. "Without Watson to lead the passing game, Clemson is now more of a spread-option team that asks Bryant to make quick decisions in the run game, to get the ball to speedy skill players on the perimeter."
That style of offense brings to mind what Auburn was able to do against Alabama at the end of the regular season. Auburn quarterback Jarrett Stidham was able to complete 75 percent of his passes for 237 yards against the Crimson Tide.
Another key to that game was that Auburn didn't abandon the run, carrying the ball 49 times despite averaging 3.4 yards per carry.
Since neither Alabama nor Clemson figures to light up the scoreboard, the Tigers will be able to ride Travis Etienne and Tavien Feaster as much as possible to put Bryant in the best position to make plays with his arm.
It's always tempting to stick with Alabama in any close matchup because of Saban's track record, but Swinney is building a program that is slowly becoming just as dominant. This is Clemson's chance to put an exclamation point on the trilogy with a win.
Prediction: Clemson 24, Alabama 17
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