NCAA Tournament Teams from Last Year That Are Already on the Bubble for 2018
The Wisconsin Badgers have not missed the NCAA men's tournament since 1998, but seven losses in their first 11 games put them front and center on the list of teams from last year's NCAA tournament who aren't in great shape to dance in 2018.
First and foremost, it should be noted that we're only interested in teams that made it as a No. 11 seed or better in last year's tournament. There's no point in letting you know that most of the teams from one-bid leagues might not make it since they need to win their conference tournaments to reach the big one.
But even though that limits the pool of candidates to just 46 teams, there was not a shortage of options here. In fact, we grouped a few teams together by conference, just to make sure there was enough room for every qualified team. (Or unqualified, I suppose.)
Teams are presented in no particular order, but the five teams in the most danger of missing the tournament are the last five on this list.
Records are current through the start of play on Dec. 18. KenPom.com rankings are current through the start of play on Dec. 17.
Northwestern Wildcats
1 of 10
Record: 8-4
KenPom Rank: 46
Three Best Wins (KenPom Rank): vs. Illinois (97), vs. Valparaiso (106), at DePaul (119)
Three Worst Losses (KenPom Rank): at Georgia Tech (92), vs. Creighton (31), vs. Texas Tech (16)
Most of the teams on this list were expected to struggle this season. Maybe we weren't anticipating they would be in dire straits in mid-December, but they weren't projected to be No. 4 seeds in the 2018 NCAA tournament.
But Northwestern was.
Of the 65 AP voters, 63 had Northwestern in the preseason Top 25. More than a quarter of the voters had the Wildcats ranked in the Top 15 in advance of what was supposed to be a year of building off the first NCAA tournament appearance in program history.
Instead, Northwestern has become a microcosm of everything that is wrong with the Big Ten this season.
The Wildcats already have four losses, and they easily could have three others. They needed overtime to win a home game against Illinois. They needed DePaul to shoot 9-of-24 from the free-throw line and miss a buzzer-beater in order to escape with that two-point win. And they got more of a challenge from Loyola (Maryland) in the season opener than anyone was expecting.
Because Northwestern averted disaster in those games, this resume isn't too awful. But if the Wildcats don't win at Oklahoma this Friday, they're going to be in serious trouble. They already lost their lone game this season against Purdue, and they only play Michigan State once (Feb. 17). Thus, opportunities for quality wins are almost nonexistent after Christmas.
Put it this way: If Northwestern loses to both Oklahoma and Michigan State, it probably needs to go at least 15-2 in its other 17 regular-season games in order to enter the Big Ten tournament with a legitimate case for an at-large bid. And given the struggles this team has had for the past five-plus weeks, that might be asking too much.
South Carolina Gamecocks
2 of 10
Record: 8-2
KenPom Rank: 57
Three Best Wins (KenPom Rank): vs. Wyoming (115), vs. Massachusetts (129), vs. Western Michigan (140)
Three Worst Losses (KenPom Rank): vs. Illinois State (126), vs. Temple (58), N/A
While it's a little harsh to say that a team with two losses is already in danger of missing the dance, South Carolina has done nothing to prove that it belongs in the field of 68.
The Gamecocks were blown out by Temple (in Madison Square Garden) on a night where the Owls didn't even shoot that well. And that loss to Illinois State in the first round of the Puerto Rico Tip-Off was doubly damaging. Instead of advancing to the winner's side of the bracket and facing Boise State and either Iowa State or Tulsa, they drew UTEP and Western Michigan for a pair of games that didn't help their strength of schedule one bit.
In addition to the lackluster resume, South Carolina simply isn't a good team this year.
That was to be expected, though. Sindarius Thornwell, Duane Notice and Justin McKie all graduated. PJ Dozier left for the NBA draft. Rakym Felder has been suspended and hasn't played yet this season. Those five guys were among last year's seven leading scorers.
And let's just say South Carolina isn't a popular destination for highly touted high school players who will make an immediate impact as freshmen, so replacing that much production was always going to be a major challenge.
The Gamecocks do have two more nonconference opportunities to make a good impression. They play at in-state rival Clemson (9-1; No. 32 on KenPom) this Tuesday and they will host Texas Tech (9-1; No. 16 on KenPom) in late January in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge. But rather than making that good impression, it seems more likely that their record is going to get a bit ugly now that they'll be facing top-100 teams on a regular basis.
Saint Mary's Gaels
3 of 10
Record: 9-2
KenPom Rank: 39
Three Best Wins (KenPom Rank): vs. New Mexico State (94), at California (171). vs Harvard (161)
Three Worst Losses (KenPom Rank): vs. Washington State (180), vs Georgia (76)
Saying South Carolina is in trouble with just two losses might be a premature bubble designation, but Saint Mary's is definitely a two-loss team that should already be worried about Selection Sunday.
From a talent perspective, Saint Mary's is clearly a top-50 team this year. Jock Landale is racking up 21.6 points and 9.5 rebounds per game. Calvin Hermanson is shooting incredibly well. And Emmett Naar is averaging roughly 13 points and nine assists per game and better than four assists per turnover. The Gaels rank fourth nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, trailing only Duke, Villanova and Arizona State.
But from a resume perspective, it's already tough to see this team being deemed worthy of an at-large bid.
Before the season began, we had pinpointed the Wooden Legacy as the one chance for the Gaels to prove something in nonconference play. As it turns out, there weren't actually any KenPom top-50 teams in that field aside from the Gaels, but that only makes their 1-2 record in the event look worse.
That semifinal loss to Washington State might be the single most damaging result for any tournament-caliber team in this entire season. Immediately following it up with an overtime loss to Georgia didn't help matters.
Saint Mary's does still play home games against Dayton and UNC-Asheville this week. Wins there would replace California and Harvard on the list of top nonconference victories for the Gaels. But even the Flyers and Bulldogs are ranked 125th and 133rd on KenPom, respectively, so we're not talking about massive opportunities.
The simple fact of the matter is that Saint Mary's needs to win at least one of its games against Gonzaga—preferably the one in the West Coast Conference championship game, so as to avoid even being in the at-large conversation. Because if it goes 20-3 the rest of the way with those three losses coming against Gonzaga, this is going to be a 29-5 NIT resume.
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The Pac-12's Second Tier
4 of 10
Combined Record of Oregon, UCLA and USC: 22-9
Average KenPom Rank: 44
Three Best Wins (KenPom Rank): UCLA vs. Wisconsin (62), Oregon at Fresno State (71), USC at Vanderbilt (75)
Three Worst Losses (KenPom Rank): Oregon vs. Connecticut (103), Oregon vs. Boise State (60), UCLA at Michigan (35)
The Pac-12's top two teams—Arizona and Arizona State—are in great shape. There's a case to be made that Arizona State would be the No. 1 overall seed if the NCAA tournament began today, and Arizona is certainly rounding into form now that it has Rawle Alkins back in the fold.
But the rest of the Pac-12 is a disaster.
Oregon, USC and UCLA were all expected to finish in the top four of this league and return to the NCAA tournament, but they entered play on Sunday with a combined record of 0-8 against KenPom top-60 teams.
And the bottom half of the Pac-12 is even worse than we thought it might be. As a result, this is not a year where you can limp into conference play with a "no great wins, but no bad losses" type of resume, finish fifth in the league with an 11-7 record and sneak into the tournament.
At this point, I'm not even sure a third-place finish in the Pac-12 will be good enough for an invite to the dance.
There are still two huge opportunities remaining for this trio. UCLA plays at Kentucky this Saturday and USC will partake in the Diamond Head Classic from Dec. 22-25, which could mean wins over Akron, Middle Tennessee and Miami. If the Bruins and Trojans capitalize on those chances, it would be huge for this league as a whole. But if UCLA gets smoked by Kentucky and the Trojans go 1-2 in Hawaii, it'll be time for the Pac-12 to panic.
The Big East's Middle Tier
5 of 10
Combined Record of Butler, Marquette and Providence: 23-9
Average KenPom Rank: 54
Three Best Wins (KenPom Rank): Butler vs. Ohio State (51), Marquette at Wisconsin (62), Butler vs. Utah (61)
Three Worst Losses (KenPom Rank): Providence at Massachusetts (129), Marquette vs. Georgia (76), Providence at Rhode Island (50)
The situation for the Big East isn't anywhere near as dire as it is for the Pac-12. For the latter, we're talking about the third- through fifth-best teams being on the bubble. For the Big East, these are arguably the sixth- through eighth-best teams.
Still, Butler, Marquette and Providence all made the NCAA tournament last year, and things aren't looking great for them right now. This trio is clustered at Nos. 53-55 in KenPom's rankings with a combined record of 0-7 against top-50 teams.
The troubling part is that most of those games weren't very competitive. Six of those seven losses were decided by a margin of at least 12 points. The only exception to the rule was Providence losing by seven to a Rhode Island team playing without its best player (E.C. Matthews).
Moreover, each of these teams has serious red flags.
Butler does not shoot (or defend) the three well, and it is one of the worst teams in the country at getting to the charity stripe, ranking 326th in free-throw rate. As a result, the Bulldogs are prone to long stretches when they simply cannot score. Marquette has three excellent shooters who combine to attempt nearly 24 triples per game. But the Golden Eagles have no depth and are just plain bad on defense. And Providence lost Emmitt Holt for the season to an abdominal injury and has struggled to figure things out without him.
Perhaps the biggest problem for this group is that it has been jumped by St. John's. The Big East is probably a six-bid league, possibly seven. But if the Red Storm remain ahead of this trio, that means only one and maybe two spots for these three teams. Their head-to-head games in conference play may well determine who gets in and who is left out.
VCU Rams
6 of 10
Record: 6-5
KenPom Rank: 89
Three Best Wins (KenPom Rank): vs. Old Dominion (67), vs. Bucknell (104), vs. California (171)
Three Worst Losses (KenPom Rank): vs. Marquette (54), vs. Texas (33), vs. Michigan (35)
This is where it starts to get ugly. Those first five teams/groups aren't in great shape, but there's a pretty clear path to success if they can just slightly turn things around.
For these final five teams, it would just about take a miracle to get back into the conversation for an at-large bid.
VCU doesn't have any terrible losses this season, but it does already have a few too many. In addition to the three listed above, they were also blown out by Seton Hall and lost a home game against Virginia. That's five blown opportunities against teams that will likely finish the season with better resumes than anyone in the Atlantic 10, which means the Rams have already missed their best chances to prove anything.
The good news is they have the most favorable A-10 schedule imaginable. The Rams have just one game each against Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure and Davidson, and each of those three games will be played at home. Though KenPom gives VCU a projected A-10 record of 11-7, the site also gives VCU at least a 43 percent chance of winning each game left on its schedule.
The bad news is this team just isn't very good, particularly on defense, which was VCU's bread and butter for the past decade. Seven of 11 opponents have averaged at least 106 points per 100 possessions against the Rams. That's quite the drop-off from 2013-14, when that happened just three times in the entire regular season.
Unless the Rams start clamping down on defense, they'll enter A-10 play with something in the vicinity of an 18-13 record. From there, they'll either need to win the conference tournament or they will miss the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2010.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
7 of 10
Record: 6-4
KenPom Rank: 66
Three Best Wins (KenPom Rank): vs. Illinois (97), vs. UNC-Greensboro (100), vs. Army (166)
Three Worst Losses (KenPom Rank): vs. Drake (194), vs. Liberty (148), vs. Georgia Southern (87)
Wake Forest has been respectable since Nov. 18, going 6-1 with a close neutral-court loss to Houston during that time.
But in the first three games of the season, the Demon Deacons dug themselves a hole deeper than the Grand Canyon. (This would be a more appropriate remark if they had actually played Grand Canyon, but oh well.)
Losing home games to Georgia Southern and Liberty and a neutral-court game against Drake is the worst three-game start to the season I can ever recall from a major-conference team. Even Oregon State started out 2-0 last year before losing 27 of its next 30 games.
One problem on full display in each of those losses is that Wake Forest is atrocious at defending the perimeter. Opponents average 10.1 made triples and shoot 38.8 percent from beyond the arc against the Demon Deacons. Drake was 15-of-30 from downtown in that game.
If that persists into conference play, they are going to get repeatedly slaughtered by the likes of Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Miami, Virginia and North Carolina. They're also going to have a serious problem with Tennessee next Sunday, as the Volunteers shoot better than 40 percent from distance. And with the current state of its nonconference resume, Wake Forest cannot afford to lose all of those games.
A loss to Tennessee (and win over Coastal Carolina) would mean starting ACC play with a 7-5 record. From there, they would need to go at least 10-8 in-conference to have any hope for an at-large bid—which is unlikely, at best.
Dayton Flyers
8 of 10
Record: 5-5
KenPom Rank: 125
Three Best Wins (KenPom Rank): vs. Ball State (121), vs. Georgia State (144), vs. Ohio (160)
Three Worst Losses (KenPom Rank): vs. Hofstra (145), vs. Penn (132), vs. Old Dominion (67)
Dayton has won at least 19 games in each of the past 11 seasons, but 19 losses is the more likely outcome this year.
This is hardly a surprise, though. Four of the five leading scorers for last year's Flyers were seniors, and the sixth-leading scorer, Ryan Mikesell, is redshirting this season while recovering from hip surgeries. Add in losing head coach Archie Miller to Indiana, and there was always a good chance this season ended up being a complete disaster.
Darrell Davis has made an impressive leap as a senior, and Josh Cunningham (16.8 PPG, 10.6 RPG) is doing all that he can to keep this team afloat. But there isn't enough talent on this roster. Xeyrius Williams and Kostas Antetokounmpo were supposed to be two of the top guys on this team, but they each have a sub-90 O-rating.
Dayton plays at Saint Mary's this Tuesday, where it will likely fall to 5-6 overall and 0-4 against the KenPom top 100.
Unless they plan on winning the A-10 tournament, any hope of reaching the Big Dance is effectively out the window. The primary goal at this point has to be developing some of the younger guys for years to come. Davis is the only noteworthy senior on the roster, so the Flyers should bounce back in a big way next year if guys like Jalen Crutcher and Trey Landers assert themselves as go-to guys for 2018-19.
Vanderbilt Commodores
9 of 10
Record: 3-7
KenPom Rank: 75
Three Best Wins (KenPom Rank): vs. UNC-Asheville (133), vs. Radford (278), vs. Austin Peay (263)
Three Worst Losses (KenPom Rank): at Belmont (113), vs. Middle Tennessee (68), vs. Kansas State (42)
With the exception of the blowout loss to Virginia, Vanderbilt had a chance to win every game this season.
The loss to Belmont was tight throughout, but the Commodores couldn't ever quite get over the hump. Against USC, Vandy led by 10 in the final 10 minutes, only to blow it in overtime. The Commodores led at halftime against Seton Hall before coming out ice-cold in the second. They fought back from a 16-point deficit to tie Kansas State in the final minutes before letting that slip away.
They led for most of the game against Middle Tennessee and gave it away in the final five minutes. And they jumped out to a 13-0 lead on Arizona State before the Sun Devils offense woke up and went on a 46-18 run.
But this isn't horseshoes or hand grenades. All those almosts and should-haves merely sum up to a 3-7 record for what might be the worst team in the SEC.
Vanderbilt does not shoot well as a team, it doesn't force many turnovers and it's only marginally above-average on the glass. Basically the only area where the Commodores excel is in getting to the free-throw line, and that's no way to make a living.
Playing one of the toughest schedules in the country enabled Vanderbilt to sneak into the tournament last year with 15 losses. But that team had to beat Florida three times, defeat Iowa State in the SEC-B12 Challenge and finish with 12 total wins (including conference tournament) against SEC foes.
But going 11-7 against this much-improved version of the SEC—and beating TCU in January—is asking too much from this team.
Wisconsin Badgers
10 of 10
Record: 5-7
KenPom Rank: 62
Three Best Wins (KenPom Rank): at Penn State (38), vs. Western Kentucky (95), vs. Yale (137)
Three Worst Losses (KenPom Rank): at Temple (58), vs. UCLA (56), vs. Marquette (54)
When Wisconsin lost five of the seven leading scorers from the 36-4 team that reached the 2015 national championship, things took a turn for the worse. The Badgers started the following season 9-9 before finally turning things around and reaching the NCAA tournament as a No. 7 seed.
So, when they lost four of the five leading scorers from what was already just a 27-10 team last year, perhaps we should have anticipated this colossal fall from grace onto the wrong side of the tournament bubble. Instead, they had finished so many consecutive years in the top four of the Big Ten that we simply refused to believe anything else could happen.
To be fair, the Badgers could absolutely still finish in the top four in this sad excuse for a power conference. Michigan State and Purdue are the only Big Ten teams who look like legitimate candidates to reach the second weekend of the tournament. Plus, Wisconsin already has a road win over Penn State, which could be a tiebreaker in the top half of the standings.
But would a 12-6 Big Ten record even be enough to save Wisconsin at this point?
The Badgers are already ranked 86th in RPI, and remaining nonconference games (at home) against Green Bay, Chicago State and UMass-Lowell are only going to make their RPI rating worse. If we're assuming a 12-6 conference record, that likely means getting swept by both Michigan State and Purdue and losing the home game against Michigan, along with the loss they already have against Ohio State.
That would put them at 19-12 overall with potentially zero RPI top-50 wins. Even if they go 13-5 (20-11 overall) by winning the home game against the Wolverines, would that really be enough of a signature win to merit a bid? It's way too early to make that call, since we don't know what the other resumes on the bubble are going to look like, but it certainly wouldn't be a lock.
The streak of 19 consecutive NCAA tournament appearances is in serious jeopardy.
Kerry Miller covers men's basketball and college football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames. Advanced stats courtesy of Sports Reference and KenPom.com.
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