MAC Championship Game: Akron vs. Toledo Odds, Analysis, Betting Pick

The Toledo Rockets own seven wins in their last nine meetings with the Akron Zips, including a 27-point blowout earlier this season. In a game that involves the largest point spread of any conference championship bout this season, Toledo meets Akron for the Mid-American Conference title Saturday afternoon at Ford Field in Detroit.

College football point spread: The Rockets opened as 18-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 43.6-18.4 Rockets (College football picks on every game)

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Why the Akron Zips can cover the spread

The Zips just clinched their first MAC championship game berth since 2005 with a 24-14 victory over Kent State last Tuesday. Akron drove the opening possession of the game 75 yards to a touchdown, then later scored twice in the last 20 seconds of the first half, the second time on a fumble return off a kickoff, to take a 24-7 lead into the locker room. The Zips played conservative from there, secured the victory but missed out on the cash as two-touchdown favorites.

On the night, Akron only came up with 191 yards of offense but only gave up 246. The Zips also won the turnover battle 3-1, resulting in a plus-7 points differential.

Two weeks ago, Akron upset Ohio 37-34 as a two-touchdown underdog, and earlier this season the Zips beat Western Michigan 14-13 as 12-point dogs. In fact, Akron is 7-2 ATS over its last nine games and 5-2 ATS when getting points.

Why the Toledo Rockets can cover the spread

The Rockets just clinched their first appearance in the MAC championship game since 2004 with a 37-10 win over Western Michigan last Friday. Toledo scored the first 10 points of the game and the last 13 and covered as a 12-point favorite.

On the night, the Rockets outgained the Broncos 455-275, outrushed WMU 155-95 and won time of possession by a 34-26 split.

Toledo has now outgained seven of its last eight opponents, five by 150 yards or more. It's also 6-1 ATS over its last seven games.

The Rockets just beat the Zips five weeks ago 48-21, easily covering a 15-point spread. Toledo fired out to a 21-0 first-quarter lead and later pushed that to 38-7, before letting Akron score a pair of meaningless fourth-quarter touchdowns.

Smart pick

The Zips have been outgained eight of their last 10 times out and outrushed by each of their last 10 opponents. How Akron won six games over that span is a bit of a mystery. Meanwhile, five of Toledo's last six victories have come by 20 points or more. Smart money here rides the Rockets.

College football betting trends

The total has gone over in 10 of Toledo's last 14 games after consecutive wins.

Toledo is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games.

Akron is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games.

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.