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The amount of turnover seen among NFL head coaches over the last few seasons has been staggering. The pace won't slow down anytime soon, because professional football is a bottom-line business.
Jerry Glanville made the now-iconic observation that N.F.L. actually stands for "not for long." He didn't even realize how true his words were, and they've only grown more insightful as the decades pass.
Glanville was referring to poor officiating at the time, but his words turned into a blanket statement that directly applies to coaching. Just over the last three seasons, 25 different head coaching hires have been made. Only seven of the league's current head coaches have been with their team longer than five seasons.
The turnover is astronomical, which finding quality candidates more difficult, especially when the vast majority of hires comes from the NFL ranks.
Let's set aside proven head coaches such as Mike Tomlin, Sear McDermott or even Bruce Arians, who aren't currently on a sideline but may reenter the field. The NFL still hasn't bought into collegiate coaches being able to make a smooth transition.
Instead, five names should be at or near the top of the list once the regular season is complete for those 13 franchises currently with three or fewer wins.
DC Brian Flores, Minnesota Vikings
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To quote an iconic phrase from the great philosopher Cody Rhodes, the Minnesota Vikings' Brian Flores has gone from "undesirable to un-g**d***-deniable."
Flores is only candidate on this short list with previous head coaching experience. That experience didn't end well, to the point where Flores and his representation brought a lawsuit against the NFL for alleged racial discrimination in hiring practices. The case remains open, with a federal judge ruling against the NFL in July to turn the matter over to arbitration.
Despite the ongoing litigation, Flores' performance as the Vikings' defensive coordinator has been too good not to be considered for another head coach position, even after finishing with a 24-25 record during his three seasons at the helm of the Miami Dolphins. Currently, Flores' unit is terrorizing the league with the coordinator's carefree attitude toward blitzing on a nearly every-down basis.
Currently, the Vikings rank second in total and pass defense. The figure could be even better if Minnesota had a complementary offense capable of taking some pressure off the other side of the ball. Flores' group finished third in total defense a season ago.
"You try to have answers for everything," Chicago Bears head coach/offensvie play-caller Brian Johnson told ESPN's Courtney Cronin. "He's been in this division three years now, and yeah, I mean you'd like to think he's put everything he could possibly do on tape until you play him next and you realize he hasn't yet. So it'll be something new. There always is with him and that's what makes him such a good coordinator.
"It's a great challenge. It really is. You have a lot of fun on game day. Now the week of preparation is not so much fun, but you know, there's a lot of back and forth that goes into it."
The respect for Flores from opposing players and coaches is obvious. He's arguably the game's premier defensive mind. He brings legitimate head coaching experience, too. His unit's performance has others around the league just shaking their heads. All of this should equate to becoming a head coach again in 2027, as long as league owners can get past themselves.
OC Grant Udinski, Jacksonville Jaguars
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Today's NFL is typically looking for the next great offensive play-caller to lead a franchise since it's a quarterback-driven league. Those top play-callers have been hired over the last few years.
Thus, a candidate like Grant Udinski becomes a desirable candidate even though he isn't the Jacksonville Jaguars' play-caller, because he's only 30 yards old, with working experience with two games the game's best offensive minds in Liam Coen and Kevin O'Connell.
"He's so unbelievably gifted in his ability to look at the game, study the game and then articulate it with not only his ideas, his imagination, but then how do we get those thoughts to the players to be able to take advantage of those things," O'Connell told Danielle Lerner of USA Today. "His future's so bright and we're probably all going to be working for him eventually. It's just a matter of time."
Every NFL team wants the next Sean McVay, who took over the Los Angeles Rams at the ripe age of 31 thanks to his offensive wizardry. He's now a Super Bowl-winning head coach. Every organization is looking for the next great mind and each tends to look in the same areas. Both O'Connell and Coen both worked for McVay at one time.
Now, Udinski is helping orchestrate the league's fourth-ranked scoring offense. He and Coen have helped unlock Trevor Lawrence's potential and gotten the most out of the 2021 No. 1 overall draft pick. Despite not calling plays in Jacksonville, all of these factors are important when placing Udinski atop the list among the offensive-minded candidates.
OC Klay Kubiak, San Francisco 49ers
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If there's one thing NFL owners love, they are often smitten by young offensive minds with a pedigree. Technically, that's three different qualifiers. But they're all wrapped up into one with the San Francisco 49ers' Klay Kubiak.
Two coaching trees currently dominate the league. Sean McVay's influence, as mentioned earlier, has developed into an weeping willow with how far his branches cascade over today's NFL. The Kyle Shanahan pipeline serves as the other.
These two approaches aren't diametrically opposed, either, as it used to be when teams would choose between Bill Walsh- or Don Coryell-inspired candidates. In this instance, significant overlap exists between McVay and Shanahan.
When it comes to the younger Kubiak, who older brother was named the Las Vegas Raiders' head coach earlier this year, the 38-year-old works directly with Shanahan and currently serves as the Niners' offensive coordinator.
Unlike his brother, Kubiak has not been a primary NFL play-caller. Shanahan retains those duties in San Francisco. However, the immersion in what's often referred to as the NFL's best offensive scheme certainly should have some influence on the coach Kubiak will become if he gets an opportunity to lead his own team.
What's fascinating about the 49ers' offensive success is that it maintains even when the roster is best by injuries. The scheme helps to overcome, which is vital in a 100-percent injury league. The approach will help any coach.
Plus, football is in Kubiak's blood, as the son of former Houston Texans and Denver Broncos head coach Gary Kubiak. His family's history and ties throughout the league should run deep and help the candidate eventually gather a competent coaching staff.
DC Aden Durde, Seattle Seahawks
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Aden Durde would be an inspiring choice as an NFL head coach based on his rise to the position. He's also deserving of strong consideration based on his work during recent seasons.
Durde was born in Middlesex, England. He picked up American football at the prep level before attending North Iowa Area Community College. From there, Durde earned playing opportunities at NFL Europe before a practice squad stints with the Carolina Panthers and Kansas City Chiefs.
The linebacker-turned-coach took advantage of the NFL fellowship program and even served as the league's head of football development at NFLUK for three years. He was eventually hired by the Atlanta Falcons and worked his way up from defensive quality coach to Dallas Cowboys defensive line coach to the Seattle Seahawks' defensive coordinator. In doing so, he became the league's first full-time British-born coach.
"I didn't have a career path," Durde told The Seattle Times' Bob Condotta. "There wasn't like, 'Oh, I'm going to be an accountant or I'm going to do this or that.' That wasn't how I lived my life. I just had this one thing that I absolutely loved."
Granted, Mike Macdonald is Seattle's defensive play-caller. Although, Macdonald relinquished the responsibility during this year's training camp and the start of preseason, allowing his coordinator to gain critical experience. Still, Durde's influence over the game's top-ranked defense shouldn't be overlooked.
"He has a huge role in our stunts and our games and the way that we pass rush," defensive lineman Leonard Williams said. "People have been talking all year about how good of a job we do to get to the quarterback with just four down linemen and I think AD is the one controlling all of that."
Durde is the coordinator of an elite, Super Bowl-winning unit. He more than deserves to draw serious interest during the next hiring cycle and complete his incredible, albeit unlikely, journey.
DC Chris Shula, Los Angeles Rams
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Legacy and experience working alongside Sean McVay are two feathers in the cap of Los Angeles Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula.
Name recognition goes a long way in the NFL. The Rams' defensive play-caller is the grandson of Hall of Fame coach Don Shula and former Cincinnati Bengals head coach Dave Shula. However, his candidacy isn't rooted in nepotism. Chris Shula has earned consideration as McVay's defensive leader over the last three seasons.
Currently, the Rams field a top-five defense. Usually, offensive candidates are preferred from McVay's staff. In this instance, a defensive mind shouldn't make the 40-year-old Shula a lesser option.
Candidates to be an NFL head coach shouldn't be defined entirely by their specific expertise. Interested franchise should be looking for the right leadership qualities to relate with players, get the most out of them and galvanize a locker room. A head coach essentially serves as a de factor CEO of a billion-dollar organization and requires a big-picture outlook.
"There's a lot of love and experience together going back to even playing ball with him in college," McVay said at the end of last year, per Brock Vierra of Sports Illustrated. "I think there are a lot of consistencies that we can relate to in terms of coming from football families and understanding this space. It's really all those things that I just talked about. He checks all those boxes. I think what's really cool is he's had a chance to coach on all three levels. He and I are so connected in regard to how we see the game and how we believe the game should be played, from an offensive, a defensive and really just a holistic perspective."
McVay continued, "Chris will be the first to tell you, 'This is a collective effort.' You hear the headsets on game day and what a phenomenal job he and our defensive coaches do of collaborating to try to be able to put our guys in good positions throughout the game and having a feel for all what's needed. 'How do we want to play that? What's their approach?' He's a stud."
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